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Author Topic: PA- Marist: Clinton, TRUMP with wide leads  (Read 2577 times)
Landslide Lyndon
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« on: April 24, 2016, 06:55:14 am »

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/724202447405768704

Clinton         55
Sanders       40



TRUMP         45
Cruz            27
Kasich         24 
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
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« Reply #1 on: April 24, 2016, 07:17:11 am »

Dominating! I hope Trump breaks 50% so he can finally end this charade.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #2 on: April 24, 2016, 08:06:54 am »

Here’s the poll:

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/trump-clinton-hold-strong-leads-pennsylvania-new-poll-shows-n560606
https://www.scribd.com/doc/310117398/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Pennsylvania-Poll-Annotated-Questionnaire-April-2016?secret_password=hF58jsCziVNNSbqOfw6G

Quote
Trump performs the best among those who strongly support a candidate (getting support from 57 percent from that group), men (52 percent), those without a college degree (52 percent) and those in the Northeast part of the state (52 percent).

He performs the worst among college graduates (37 percent), women (39 percent), white evangelicals (40 percent — but still leading Cruz's 36 percent) and in the Philadelphia suburbs (38 percent — leading Kasich's 34 percent).

second choices:
Kasich 40%
Cruz 30%
Trump 18%
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Bigby
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« Reply #3 on: April 24, 2016, 08:19:51 am »

How is Cruz even 2nd? I'm shocked that Kasich isn't ahead of him in a Northeastern state.
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #4 on: April 24, 2016, 09:44:19 am »

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Marist College on 2016-04-20

Summary:
Trump:
45%
Cruz:
27%
Kasich:
24%
Other:
1%
Undecided:
3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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Dave Leip
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« Reply #5 on: April 24, 2016, 09:45:18 am »

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Marist College on 2016-04-20

Summary:
Clinton:
55%
Sanders:
40%
Other:
1%
Undecided:
4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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IceSpear
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« Reply #6 on: April 24, 2016, 03:03:16 pm »

Dominating! I hope Trump breaks 50% so he can finally end this charade.

Since when do you want Trump to win?

Also, go Hilldawg go!
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« Reply #7 on: April 24, 2016, 04:47:29 pm »

Dominating! I hope Trump breaks 50% so he can finally end this charade.

Since when do you want Trump to win?

Well, it's pretty clear that Kasich can't win the nomination anymore. I now think that Trump might actually win the general (It's amazing how many times I've underestimated this guy) if he gets his act together. It's time for Republicans to unite behind him, whether he loses the general or not. A brokered convention would only damage the party and he's probably more electable than Cruz, too.
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NV less likely to flip than FL
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« Reply #8 on: April 24, 2016, 04:55:21 pm »

PA looks like it'll be a double digit win for both Clinton and Trump. I guess Kasich and Cruz aren't doing a good job of getting their voters to vote "strategically."
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God-Empress Brie Larson
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« Reply #9 on: April 24, 2016, 04:59:32 pm »

How is Cruz even 2nd? I'm shocked that Kasich isn't ahead of him in a Northeastern state.

The classical explanation for things like this is that Pennsylvania 'has Alabama in the middle'. The parts of the state outside the Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Scranton urban/suburban spheres sometimes get called 'Pennsyltucky' (not to be confused with the ludicrously stereotyped Orange Is the New Black character). I think this somewhat overstates the case, but it's definitely true that much of the Pennsylvania Republican primary electorate is living in a northward extension of Appalachia rather than in the cultural Northeast proper (the same could have been true of the Southern Tier if Cruz hadn't overtly insulted New York).
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IceSpear
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« Reply #10 on: April 24, 2016, 06:05:37 pm »

Dominating! I hope Trump breaks 50% so he can finally end this charade.

Since when do you want Trump to win?

Well, it's pretty clear that Kasich can't win the nomination anymore. I now think that Trump might actually win the general (It's amazing how many times I've underestimated this guy) if he gets his act together. It's time for Republicans to unite behind him, whether he loses the general or not. A brokered convention would only damage the party and he's probably more electable than Cruz, too.

Kasich has been in the exact same position for the past month though. Tongue
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Craziaskowboi
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« Reply #11 on: April 24, 2016, 07:28:46 pm »

The classical explanation for things like this is that Pennsylvania 'has Alabama in the middle'.

It's a bunch of bullsh**t, quite frankly, and this list illustrates that:


White vote percentage for Barack Obama by county in Pennsylvania and Alabama (2012)

81% - Philadelphia County
61% - Lackawanna County
53% - Erie County
50% - Montgomery County
49% - Allegheny County
49% - Delaware County
48% - Luzerne County
46% - Bucks County
46% - Lehigh County
46% - Monroe County
46% - Northampton County
45% - Centre County
44% - PENNSYLVANIA
43% - Carbon County
43% - Chester County
43% - Mercer County
42% - Berks County
41% - Beaver County
41% - Clinton County
41% - Fayette County
41% - Lawrence County
41% - Wyoming County
40% - Columbia County
40% - Elk County
39% - Dauphin County
39% - Schuylkill County
39% - Warren County
39% - Washington County
37% - Greene County
37% - Pike County
36% - Cambria County
36% - Crawford County

36% - Greene County
36% - Indiana County
36% - Montour County
36% - Northumberland County
36% - Susquehanna County
35% - Cumberland County
35% - Wayne County
34% - Bradford County
34% - Lancaster County
34% - Westmoreland County
33% - Venango County
32% - Cameron County
32% - Sullivan County
32% - York County
31% - Adams County
31% - Clearfield County
31% - McKean County
30% - Lebanon County
29% - Blair County
29% - Butler County
29% - Tioga County
29% - Union County
28% - Armstrong County
28% - Clarion County

28% - Colbert County
28% - Snyder County
27% - Lauderdale County
27% - Lycoming County
27% - Perry County

26% - Franklin County
26% - Jackson County

25% - Franklin County
25% - Huntingdon County

25% - Jefferson County
25% - Lawrence County
25% - Russell County

24% - Jefferson County
24% - Juniata County
24% - Potter County
24% - Somerset County

24% - Sumter County
23% - Bullock County

23% - Mifflin County
23% - Perry County
22% - Forest County
22% - Lowndes County
22% - Macon County
21% - Lee County
21% - Madison County

20% - Bedford County
20% - DeKalb County
20% - Montgomery County
19% - Etowah County
19% - Wilcox County
19% - Tuscaloosa County
18% - Calhoun County
18% - Cherokee County

18% - Fulton County
18% - Limestone County
18% - Marshall County
18% - Mobile County
18% - Morgan County
18% - Walker County
17% - Chambers County
17% - Conecuh County
16% - ALABAMA
16% - Barbour County
16% - Dallas County
16% - Marion County
16% - Talladega County
16% - Coosa County
15% - Baldwin County
15% - Hale County
14% - Butler County
14% - Clay County
14% - Cullman County
14% - Lamar County
14% - Randolph County
13% - Escambia County
13% - Fayette County
13% - Shelby County
13% - Tallapoosa County
13% - Winston County
12% - Choctaw County
12% - Cleburne County
12% - Crenshaw County
12% - Dale County
12% - Marengo County
12% - Monroe County
12% - Pickens County
12% - Pike County
12% - Washington County
11% - Autauga County
11% - Bibb County
11% - Blount County
11% - Clarke County
11% - Covington County
10% - Chilton County
10% - Elmore County
10% - Geneva County
10% - Henry County
10% - St. Clair County
9% - Coffee County
9% - Houston County



Pennsylvania counties are shaded in BLUE, and Alabama counties in RED. Alabama had only one county with more than 30% of the white vote going to Obama, and Pennsylvania had only one county with less than 20% of the white vote going to Obama. And every county in Pennsylvania gave a higher percentage of its white vote to Obama than the state of Alabama did at large. Even the most conservative counties in Pennsylvania would be among the more liberal counties if placed in Alabama. Quite frankly, I think it's a damn shame that James Carville's quip gained any traction in the first place, given how not true it really is.
« Last Edit: April 25, 2016, 04:02:14 pm by Craziaskowboi »Logged
olowakandi
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« Reply #12 on: April 24, 2016, 07:39:16 pm »

Problem for Sanders in Pa is the black vote again in Philly. And he's getting 30% of it. Clinton supporters will turn out because of contested Senate primary
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #13 on: April 24, 2016, 09:57:39 pm »

Dominating! I hope Trump breaks 50% so he can finally end this charade.

And what exactly attracts you to Trump as a candidate?
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God-Empress Brie Larson
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« Reply #14 on: April 24, 2016, 11:12:23 pm »

The classical explanation for things like this is that Pennsylvania 'has Alabama in the middle'.

It's a bunch of bullsh**t, quite frankly,

Oh, of course it is.
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Badger
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« Reply #15 on: April 25, 2016, 07:43:20 am »

Dominating! I hope Trump breaks 50% so he can finally end this charade.

Since when do you want Trump to win?

Well, it's pretty clear that Kasich can't win the nomination anymore. I now think that Trump might actually win the general (It's amazing how many times I've underestimated this guy) if he gets his act together. It's time for Republicans to unite behind him, whether he loses the general or not. A brokered convention would only damage the party and he's probably more electable than Cruz, too.

This. Especially the part regarding a brokered convention.
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Julian Assange is a Snowflake
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« Reply #16 on: April 25, 2016, 11:52:23 pm »

Dominating! I hope Trump breaks 50% so he can finally end this charade.

Since when do you want Trump to win?

Well, it's pretty clear that Kasich can't win the nomination anymore. I now think that Trump might actually win the general (It's amazing how many times I've underestimated this guy) if he gets his act together. It's time for Republicans to unite behind him, whether he loses the general or not. A brokered convention would only damage the party and he's probably more electable than Cruz, too.

This. Especially the part regarding a brokered convention.

LOL are you actually supporting Trump now?
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« Reply #17 on: April 26, 2016, 12:01:22 am »

Dominating! I hope Trump breaks 50% so he can finally end this charade.

Since when do you want Trump to win?

Well, it's pretty clear that Kasich can't win the nomination anymore. I now think that Trump might actually win the general (It's amazing how many times I've underestimated this guy) if he gets his act together. It's time for Republicans to unite behind him, whether he loses the general or not. A brokered convention would only damage the party and he's probably more electable than Cruz, too.

This. Especially the part regarding a brokered convention.

LOL are you actually supporting Trump now?

Wow... Have the Republicans lost all sense of decency and shame? I can't believe my eyes.
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Holmes
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« Reply #18 on: April 26, 2016, 12:07:12 am »

Dominating! I hope Trump breaks 50% so he can finally end this charade.

Since when do you want Trump to win?

Well, it's pretty clear that Kasich can't win the nomination anymore. I now think that Trump might actually win the general (It's amazing how many times I've underestimated this guy) if he gets his act together. It's time for Republicans to unite behind him, whether he loses the general or not. A brokered convention would only damage the party and he's probably more electable than Cruz, too.

This. Especially the part regarding a brokered convention.

LOL are you actually supporting Trump now?

Wow... Have the Republicans lost all sense of decency and shame? I can't believe my eyes.

I think Trump broke many of them and they just gave up.
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« Reply #19 on: April 26, 2016, 12:10:16 am »

Dominating! I hope Trump breaks 50% so he can finally end this charade.

Since when do you want Trump to win?

Well, it's pretty clear that Kasich can't win the nomination anymore. I now think that Trump might actually win the general (It's amazing how many times I've underestimated this guy) if he gets his act together. It's time for Republicans to unite behind him, whether he loses the general or not. A brokered convention would only damage the party and he's probably more electable than Cruz, too.

This. Especially the part regarding a brokered convention.

LOL are you actually supporting Trump now?

Wow... Have the Republicans lost all sense of decency and shame? I can't believe my eyes.

I think Trump broke many of them and they just gave up.

It is truly a sad time for our country.
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« Reply #20 on: April 26, 2016, 02:13:27 pm »

Dominating! I hope Trump breaks 50% so he can finally end this charade.

Since when do you want Trump to win?

Well, it's pretty clear that Kasich can't win the nomination anymore. I now think that Trump might actually win the general (It's amazing how many times I've underestimated this guy) if he gets his act together. It's time for Republicans to unite behind him, whether he loses the general or not. A brokered convention would only damage the party and he's probably more electable than Cruz, too.

This. Especially the part regarding a brokered convention.

LOL are you actually supporting Trump now?

Wow... Have the Republicans lost all sense of decency and shame? I can't believe my eyes.

Oh, give it a break already. Where was the Democrats' "decency" in 1996 when they voted for Bill frea**ng Clinton over Bob Dole?
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Mallow
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« Reply #21 on: April 26, 2016, 05:44:15 pm »

Dominating! I hope Trump breaks 50% so he can finally end this charade.

Since when do you want Trump to win?

Well, it's pretty clear that Kasich can't win the nomination anymore. I now think that Trump might actually win the general (It's amazing how many times I've underestimated this guy) if he gets his act together. It's time for Republicans to unite behind him, whether he loses the general or not. A brokered convention would only damage the party and he's probably more electable than Cruz, too.

This. Especially the part regarding a brokered convention.

LOL are you actually supporting Trump now?

Wow... Have the Republicans lost all sense of decency and shame? I can't believe my eyes.

Oh, give it a break already. Where was the Democrats' "decency" in 1996 when they voted for Bill frea**ng Clinton over Bob Dole?

Comparing Bill Clinton to Donald Trump. Really? Really!?
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