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Author Topic: IN, PA-CBS/YouGov: Clinton and Trump lead both states  (Read 2632 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: April 24, 2016, 07:47:08 am »

CBS/YouGov polls of IN and PA, conducted April 20-22:

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-party-front-runners-lead-in-pennsylvania-indiana/








« Last Edit: April 24, 2016, 07:49:54 am by Mr. Morden »Logged

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« Reply #1 on: April 24, 2016, 07:48:44 am »

End it, Trump.
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« Reply #2 on: April 24, 2016, 08:02:14 am »

PA by race:

whites:
Clinton 48%
Sanders 46%

blacks:
Clinton 76%
Sanders 18%

IN by race:

whites:
Sanders 48%
Clinton 44%

blacks:
Clinton 61%
Sanders 34%

Kasich actually leads among voters under 30 in PA.

Indiana by age:
18-29: Kasich +2 over Cruz
30-44: Cruz +15 over Trump
45-64: Trump +13 over Cruz
65+: Trump +36 over Cruz
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« Reply #3 on: April 24, 2016, 08:38:17 am »

lol since when did Kasich become the millennial candidate
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« Reply #4 on: April 24, 2016, 08:42:50 am »

Considering this lot have underestimated Clinton...
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« Reply #5 on: April 24, 2016, 08:44:08 am »

lol since when did Kasich become the millennial candidate

I'm waiting for Kasich's "gosh darn diddly" vocabulary to become millennial slang.
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« Reply #6 on: April 24, 2016, 09:01:16 am »

Yougov had Clinton +10 in New York.
She won by 16%.
Marist was closer at 17%.
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« Reply #7 on: April 24, 2016, 09:13:13 am »

Weak result for Trump in Indiana.  Next week's ad barrage, plus strategic voting from Kasich voters, could easily allow Cruz to surpass him there.
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« Reply #8 on: April 24, 2016, 09:19:49 am »

Considering this lot have underestimated Clinton...

Not always. They only had Sanders up 2 in Wisconsin. Their PA numbers look a bit friendly for Sanders, but their IN numbers could be a bit friendly for Clinton.
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« Reply #9 on: April 24, 2016, 09:45:56 am »

Considering this lot have underestimated Clinton...

Not always. They only had Sanders up 2 in Wisconsin. Their PA numbers look a bit friendly for Sanders, but their IN numbers could be a bit friendly for Clinton.

On average, Yougov has underestimated her support by about 5 points not factoring in Wisconsin or New York.
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« Reply #10 on: April 24, 2016, 09:50:25 am »

lol since when did Kasich become the millennial candidate

I'm waiting for Kasich's "gosh darn diddly" vocabulary to become millennial slang.
At what point does this loser Kay-sick realize that he's done his GOP-e bidding and get out of the race? He can't win. He also probably hurts Cruz more than he helps him in most of the remaining states once the Northeastern primaries are done.

He did his part by stealing 5 delegates from Trump in NY and probably 4 or 5 in Rhode Island. Be gone already.
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« Reply #11 on: April 24, 2016, 10:00:11 am »

That's the third straight poll showing Clinton ahead by low-mid single digits.
Maybe the fact that a quarter of the vote will be non-white and the independents will prefer to take part in the still competitive Republican primary will help her win the state.
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« Reply #12 on: April 24, 2016, 10:29:11 am »

Good for Trump.
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« Reply #13 on: April 24, 2016, 10:45:49 am »

lol since when did Kasich become the millennial candidate

Anecdotally, I know a lot of young Republicans who are turned off by Trump and Cruz.

Trump is running a right-wing populist platform akin to a pensioners party with open white resentment. Even among my most culturally conservative Obama-hating friends, they've been raised in a racially and culturally diverse society with friends from all over the world, different cultures, different languages, relgions, etc.

Trump's campaign is just pretty horrifying to most Millenials, whether they be Democrat or Republican. Cruz is your usual evangelical doom-and-gloom candidate, and that also falls flat with a more secular younger generation. Trump and Cruz offer young Republicans nothing.

By process of elimination, that leaves John "Your Republican Dad" Kasich.
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« Reply #14 on: April 24, 2016, 12:11:11 pm »

How much Anti-Trump ad spending was there in Pennsylvania? At least in the polls, it doesn't seem like it did much at all.
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« Reply #15 on: April 24, 2016, 12:34:47 pm »

I live in Ohio, which perhaps skews some of the numbers somewhat in Kasich's favor, but in my precinct (which is not merely college student housing, but predominantly freshman college-student housing, so the median voter age is roughly ~19), the final voter totals were:

John Kasich 18 (62.1%)
Ted Cruz 6 (20.7%)
Ben Carson 3 (10.3%) -- had dropped out by this point
Donald Trump 2 (6.9%)
Marco Rubio 0 (0.0%) -- was still a candidate, lol

Cruz's brand of politics isn't attractive to my generation (though there are true believers), but trump has essentially zero support whatsoever, and a very large number of those Kasich people would've gone to Cruz in a different state. I'd be interested in tracking down a similar precinct from the University of Wisconsin, in Madison (of freshman student housing); I'm sure Kasich would've still won it, but I wonder how much better Cruz (or trump) would've done.

As to this poll, Indiana still seems eminently winnable especially considering our money advantage and typical undecided breaking patterns. YouGov has been consistently out of the mainstream on Pennsylvania, but it doesn't seem like a chance at winning there for a non-trump exists, and it also seems like the main battle is for delegates and we have no idea how that's going. United #Nevertrumpism is probably a stronger force than trumpism in Pennsylvania, regardless of this poll, but we don't really know how much the publicized delegate lists have penetrated voter consciousness, and how many voters will show up at their precinct and vote for the first three names, or the three names that sound the best to them, or whatever names they recognize.

How much Anti-Trump ad spending was there in Pennsylvania? At least in the polls, it doesn't seem like it did much at all.

I believe most of the spending went quiet after Wisconsin and basically sat out the Northeast. Might've been a shame; I think a great deal of the Cruz vote in Maryland (especially the part coming from the DC suburbs) could've been persuaded to go for Kasich, and that he had a decent shot there overall which was passed up. Ah, well. They were always too closely deadlocked for Pennsylvania.
« Last Edit: April 24, 2016, 12:40:10 pm by Vosem »Logged

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Gass3268
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« Reply #16 on: April 24, 2016, 12:50:07 pm »

I live in Ohio, which perhaps skews some of the numbers somewhat in Kasich's favor, but in my precinct (which is not merely college student housing, but predominantly freshman college-student housing, so the median voter age is roughly ~19), the final voter totals were:

John Kasich 18 (62.1%)
Ted Cruz 6 (20.7%)
Ben Carson 3 (10.3%) -- had dropped out by this point
Donald Trump 2 (6.9%)
Marco Rubio 0 (0.0%) -- was still a candidate, lol

Cruz's brand of politics isn't attractive to my generation (though there are true believers), but trump has essentially zero support whatsoever, and a very large number of those Kasich people would've gone to Cruz in a different state. I'd be interested in tracking down a similar precinct from the University of Wisconsin, in Madison (of freshman student housing); I'm sure Kasich would've still won it, but I wonder how much better Cruz (or trump) would've done.

UW-Madison doesn't have purely freshman student housing as most dorms also have lots of sophomores and some juniors. However, Kasich won the campus area. If I were too add all of the precicents that have dorms (this includes some off campus areas, but most of those folks living their would be students, off-campus housing is huge at Wisconsin) the results end up being Kasich 44%, Cruz 38%, Trump 15%. In case anyone is curious, Sanders won those same precicents 82% to Clinton's 18%.
« Last Edit: April 24, 2016, 01:14:54 pm by Gass3268 »Logged

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« Reply #17 on: April 24, 2016, 01:03:27 pm »

It's not pure freshman so much as simply majority freshman, but yeah. Sanders won my precinct 83-17; I don't have a map of precincts covering Columbus so it would be complicated for me to give a total number for OSU campus, but I'm very confident Cruz beat trump, quite possibly by double-digits, even as the state voted K47-T36-C13 (and the county voted K64-T22-C12).
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« Reply #18 on: April 24, 2016, 02:09:33 pm »

lol since when did Kasich become the millennial candidate

Rubio was overwhelmingly winning young Republicans (actually he might have won the young vote against Hillary), and his votes seem to have split between Cruz and Kasich (probably dependent on why they were supporting Rubio in the first place).  Maybe they went slightly more to Cruz overall, but his young support seems to have split in half.
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« Reply #19 on: April 25, 2016, 03:21:55 pm »

If the Indiana numbers are real, it's definitely over on the GOP side (Democratic race is already over).
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« Reply #20 on: April 26, 2016, 11:12:14 am »

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by YouGov on 2016-04-22

Summary:
Trump:
49%
Cruz:
26%
Kasich:
22%
Other:
0%
Undecided:
3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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« Reply #21 on: April 26, 2016, 11:13:04 am »

New Poll: Indiana President by YouGov on 2016-04-22

Summary:
Trump:
40%
Cruz:
35%
Kasich:
20%
Other:
0%
Undecided:
5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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« Reply #22 on: April 26, 2016, 11:14:14 am »

New Poll: Indiana President by YouGov on 2016-04-22

Summary:
Clinton:
49%
Sanders:
44%
Other:
0%
Undecided:
7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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« Reply #23 on: April 26, 2016, 11:14:41 am »

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by YouGov on 2016-04-22

Summary:
Clinton:
51%
Sanders:
43%
Other:
0%
Undecided:
6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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