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  IN, PA-CBS/YouGov: Clinton and Trump lead both states (search mode)
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Author Topic: IN, PA-CBS/YouGov: Clinton and Trump lead both states  (Read 2984 times)
Vosem
YaBB God
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Posts: 9,982
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: -6.26

« on: April 24, 2016, 12:34:47 pm »
« edited: April 24, 2016, 12:40:10 pm by Vosem »

I live in Ohio, which perhaps skews some of the numbers somewhat in Kasich's favor, but in my precinct (which is not merely college student housing, but predominantly freshman college-student housing, so the median voter age is roughly ~19), the final voter totals were:

John Kasich 18 (62.1%)
Ted Cruz 6 (20.7%)
Ben Carson 3 (10.3%) -- had dropped out by this point
Donald Trump 2 (6.9%)
Marco Rubio 0 (0.0%) -- was still a candidate, lol

Cruz's brand of politics isn't attractive to my generation (though there are true believers), but trump has essentially zero support whatsoever, and a very large number of those Kasich people would've gone to Cruz in a different state. I'd be interested in tracking down a similar precinct from the University of Wisconsin, in Madison (of freshman student housing); I'm sure Kasich would've still won it, but I wonder how much better Cruz (or trump) would've done.

As to this poll, Indiana still seems eminently winnable especially considering our money advantage and typical undecided breaking patterns. YouGov has been consistently out of the mainstream on Pennsylvania, but it doesn't seem like a chance at winning there for a non-trump exists, and it also seems like the main battle is for delegates and we have no idea how that's going. United #Nevertrumpism is probably a stronger force than trumpism in Pennsylvania, regardless of this poll, but we don't really know how much the publicized delegate lists have penetrated voter consciousness, and how many voters will show up at their precinct and vote for the first three names, or the three names that sound the best to them, or whatever names they recognize.

How much Anti-Trump ad spending was there in Pennsylvania? At least in the polls, it doesn't seem like it did much at all.

I believe most of the spending went quiet after Wisconsin and basically sat out the Northeast. Might've been a shame; I think a great deal of the Cruz vote in Maryland (especially the part coming from the DC suburbs) could've been persuaded to go for Kasich, and that he had a decent shot there overall which was passed up. Ah, well. They were always too closely deadlocked for Pennsylvania.
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Vosem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,982
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: -6.26

« Reply #1 on: April 24, 2016, 01:03:27 pm »

It's not pure freshman so much as simply majority freshman, but yeah. Sanders won my precinct 83-17; I don't have a map of precincts covering Columbus so it would be complicated for me to give a total number for OSU campus, but I'm very confident Cruz beat trump, quite possibly by double-digits, even as the state voted K47-T36-C13 (and the county voted K64-T22-C12).
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