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Author Topic: RI - Brown University: Trump and Clinton lead with many undecided  (Read 2046 times)
Ronnie
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« on: April 24, 2016, 11:15:36 am »

Conducted April 19-21, MoE +/- 4

Trump 37.5%
Kasich 25.3%
Cruz 14.3%
Undecided/Other 22.8%

Clinton 43.3%
Sanders 33.9%
Undecided/Other 22.8%

https://www.brown.edu/academics/taubman-center/sites/brown.edu.academics.taubman-center/files/uploads/Taubman-Poll-4-24-16-crosstabs_0.pdf
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Bigby
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« Reply #1 on: April 24, 2016, 11:16:05 am »

Ew, decimals and a lot of undecideds.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #2 on: April 24, 2016, 11:19:50 am »

Ew, decimals and a lot of undecideds.

I just didn't bother rounding.  The poll seems methodologically fine.
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« Reply #3 on: April 24, 2016, 11:21:47 am »

Brown University is very bad at polling.
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« Reply #4 on: April 24, 2016, 11:24:00 am »

Eesh, what a junk poll. Sadly this is probably all we'll get.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #5 on: April 24, 2016, 11:24:08 am »

WTF?
When they polled the state two months ago there were far less undecideds. That doesn't make sense.
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« Reply #6 on: April 24, 2016, 12:31:53 pm »

My eyes perked up when I saw "RI", then I saw this crap. Well, looks like it'll be anyone's guess what happens on Tuesday.
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« Reply #7 on: April 24, 2016, 01:06:47 pm »

Looks like Trump won't be getting to 50% here. If Kasich were to somehow win it that would be hilarious.
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« Reply #8 on: April 24, 2016, 01:17:31 pm »

If this poll is right, Trump is in trouble here. I have my doubts though, and would like to see another poll.

But, if this is even close to accurate, could this finally be a Kasich breakthrough?
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« Reply #9 on: April 24, 2016, 01:39:44 pm »

Conducted April 19-21, MoE +/- 4

Trump 37.5%
Kasich 25.3%
Cruz 14.3%
Undecided/Other 22.8%

Clinton 43.3%
Sanders 33.9%
Undecided/Other 22.8%

https://www.brown.edu/academics/taubman-center/sites/brown.edu.academics.taubman-center/files/uploads/Taubman-Poll-4-24-16-crosstabs_0.pdf
Utter junk. There's no way 23% of each electorate hasn't made up their minds yet.

Not that RI matters much with how they allocate on the Republican side. 9 of the delegates (CD and RNC) are basically participation delegates if the three candidates finish > 10% and Trump doesn't get 2/3+ of the vote. They will split 3/3/3 for Trump, Cruz and Kasich for just showing up.

Then they'll apportion the 10 statewide with Trump (or the winner) with a 2 delegate edge (rounding down). If Trump is lucky, he'll get 10 of the 19 under the RI rules so long as all three major candidates clear the 10% floor.
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« Reply #10 on: April 24, 2016, 03:05:02 pm »

Lincoln Chafee's prognostication is worth more than this junk poll.
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« Reply #11 on: April 24, 2016, 04:38:58 pm »

probably not a very accurate poll, but at least it had a county breakdown, so here's a map:
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« Reply #12 on: April 24, 2016, 05:00:29 pm »

Junk poll - next!
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« Reply #13 on: April 24, 2016, 07:57:59 pm »

probably not a very accurate poll, but at least it had a county breakdown, so here's a map:


County by county breakdown? It certainly isn't junk by my book then.
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« Reply #14 on: April 24, 2016, 08:42:13 pm »

Looks like we'll have a more legit RI poll tomorrow...

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/724410376419467264

Oh and...

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/724410707555553280
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« Reply #15 on: April 24, 2016, 08:58:08 pm »


Over 50 in PA too? That would be race-ending in a normal year.
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« Reply #16 on: April 24, 2016, 09:35:41 pm »

I'm interested what they mean by "much closer" on the Democratic side. Does that just mean that they're all within 25, or that some of them are actually "close"?
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« Reply #17 on: April 24, 2016, 10:01:16 pm »

I'm interested what they mean by "much closer" on the Democratic side. Does that just mean that they're all within 25, or that some of them are actually "close"?

Connecticut and Rhode Island bieng in single digits is what that probably means. Maybe Pennsylvania too, but I dont expect PPP to come out of left field tomorrow and give shocking results. They havent been that type of pollster this cycle.
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« Reply #18 on: April 24, 2016, 10:21:16 pm »

Those of us who can remember back to 2008, remember a young, up-and-coming polling firm by the name of PPP that had just emerged some months earlier, beating established pollsters like Ramussen and Mason-Dixon at their own game. And then came the Pennsylvania primary, and they came out with a poll showing Senator Barack Obama ahead. And every other poll showed Clinton romping on to victory. Will they play the same role this year? Let's see.
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« Reply #19 on: April 25, 2016, 12:30:47 am »

Well, New York was much closer on the Democratic side.
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« Reply #20 on: April 25, 2016, 01:49:49 am »

CT and RI were never going to be blowouts for Clinton.

It'd be pretty funny if Kasich randomly won RI somehow.
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