2017: NJ Gubernatorial/legislative elections

[Flake]

I think this race is gonna heat up quite a bit, fwiw. Wouldn't discount the possibility of a Sanders endorsement at all.

A Sander's endorsement wouldn't mean much in NJ. One just has to look at the NJ Dem Primary to see why.

However in a low turnout primary I think it would help (but really only if Sanders held rallies with Wisniewski).

[OneJ]

I think this race is gonna heat up quite a bit, fwiw. Wouldn't discount the possibility of a Sanders endorsement at all.

A Sander's endorsement wouldn't mean much in NJ. One just has to look at the NJ Dem Primary to see why.

I was just thinking about this. Hillary killed it in the NJ primary and a Sanders endorsement probably won't have a noticeable effect on the race really.

[Tintrlvr]

Hope Kean runs.  Guadogno is DOA, given her ties to Christie.  But Kean is moderate enough that he could definitely win it, and he has less Christie baggage.

Kean is kind of dull-witted, but he's not stupid enough to run in a race where he'd be sure to lose and also unnecessarily associate himself with the Christie administration.

Lt. Gov Kim Guadagno is in.

http://www.app.com/story/news/2017/01/12/kim-guadagno-files-paperwork-run-governor/96492914/

Guadagno and Ciattarelli both seem like bad picks to even try to hold the governorship. They were both publicly anti-Trump which could offend a lot of Trumpists, and I doubt their bold stance on that makes a damn bit of difference to the people who utterly despise the Christie admin, which Guadagno will be tied to. Coattarelli might do marginally better than Guadagno, but I suspect this race is likely D, and more on the safe side than the lean side.

Realistically, the Republicans don't have the option of trying to retain the governorship, so who they pick is basically irrelevant (and they know this). They're just trying to salvage what they can in the state legislature. Guadagno is a sacrificial lamb. She's too tied to Christie to have a political career in New Jersey after the end of Christie's administration.

The GOP could lose seats in the Senate and Assembly; that would be bad for Bramnick or Kean's Senate prospects in 2018 against Menendez.

I don't see what the fact that the Republicans are going to lose seats in the state legislature necessarily has to do with the Republicans' chances at the Senate seat in 2018, although the chances of knocking off Menendez in a Trump midterm are laughably small.

[LabourJersey]

I honestly don't understand the Kean obsession among certain people on this forum. He's a perfectly fine State Senator and Minority Leader, but he really doesn't have much charisma or charm.

He only did as well as he did in the 2006 Senate race because Menendez was unknown, and because many people still remembered his father fondly. However, no one under the age of 25 knew who Tom Kean Sr. was; now few people under 40 do, so his name recognition isn't what it used to be.

[Suburbia]

I honestly don't understand the Kean obsession among certain people on this forum. He's a perfectly fine State Senator and Minority Leader, but he really doesn't have much charisma or charm.

He only did as well as he did in the 2006 Senate race because Menendez was unknown, and because many people still remembered his father fondly. However, no one under the age of 25 knew who Tom Kean Sr. was; now few people under 40 do, so his name recognition isn't what it used to be.

He could beat Menendez or Torricelli convincingly in 2018. Just because it is a Trump/Pence midterm in 2018, doesn't mean that Democrats are going to do well. Kean, Webber, or Rich Bagger could beat Menendez/Torricelli in 2018.

[Virginiá]

He could beat Menendez or Torricelli convincingly in 2018. Just because it is a Trump/Pence midterm in 2018, doesn't mean that Democrats are going to do well. Kean, Webber, or Rich Bagger could beat Menendez/Torricelli in 2018.

No, but the chances Republicans do well are exceedingly small. Midterms are almost always hard on the president's party, and Trump is the exact kind of person to stir up a backlash - particularly considering the potential fallout from the GOP agenda he plans to sign off on.

Anyway, even without that, Governor Krispy hasn't really helped the GOP brand in New Jersey, either. Menendez does worry me, and I wish he'd just go away, but I still think Republicans need a lot going for them to have a shot there and I doubt Trump is going to create those conditions.

[Shadows]

Of all the big states, NJ was one of Sanders' worst. His endorsement still matters & if he can get his base fired up, Wisnewki will be guaranteed a solid platform & possibly a lot of campaign money. So he can run some sort of insurgent campaign.

Having said it looks very very difficult for him to win, Murphy/Menendez type people will likely run NJ. I don't think he will make a massive dent into the minority & establishment whites & Clinton supporters.

[houseonaboat]

I don't know why Lesniak is running at all. Him and Wisniewski are gonna split the progressive vote, and Jim Johnson (assuming he gets on the ballot) is going to eat up a few more anti-Murphy/anti-establishment votes. At that point Murphy could win with just 40% of the vote (which is, again, a very generous estimate given that Murphy has the ballot lines for most counties).

[LabourJersey]

I don't know why Lesniak is running at all. Him and Wisniewski are gonna split the progressive vote, and Jim Johnson (assuming he gets on the ballot) is going to eat up a few more anti-Murphy/anti-establishment votes. At that point Murphy could win with just 40% of the vote (which is, again, a very generous estimate given that Murphy has the ballot lines for most counties).

Lesniak is what the establishment Dems call a "show-boater," he loves the attention that a gubernatorial run would give him. Also he is 70, and he was forced out of the Dem leadership in his county, so he has nothing to lose at this point.

As a Wisniewski supporter I do worry that he is splitting the vote, and making a Murphy "coronation" all the more likely.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Hope Kean runs.  Guadogno is DOA, given her ties to Christie.  But Kean is moderate enough that he could definitely win it, and he has less Christie baggage.

The GOP is going to lose this race because Christie's beyond unpopular, and Kean, much like every other Republican in the state, isn't well-known enough to be seen as distinct from Christie.

Maybe so, but Kean is moderate enough to win over suburbanites.  Don't write the GOP off yet. 

[rpryor03]

Hope Kean runs.  Guadogno is DOA, given her ties to Christie.  But Kean is moderate enough that he could definitely win it, and he has less Christie baggage.

The GOP is going to lose this race because Christie's beyond unpopular, and Kean, much like every other Republican in the state, isn't well-known enough to be seen as distinct from Christie.

Maybe so, but Kean is moderate enough to win over suburbanites.  Don't write the GOP off yet. 

KEAN'S NOT GOING TO RUN

[pikachu]

Hope Kean runs.  Guadogno is DOA, given her ties to Christie.  But Kean is moderate enough that he could definitely win it, and he has less Christie baggage.

The GOP is going to lose this race because Christie's beyond unpopular, and Kean, much like every other Republican in the state, isn't well-known enough to be seen as distinct from Christie.

Maybe so, but Kean is moderate enough to win over suburbanites.  Don't write the GOP off yet. 

The issue here isn't whether the GOP is going to nominate a hardcore conservative or not - they won't. The issue is whether the Republicans can escape the pull of Christie, whose unpopularity comes from several ideological and nonideological reasons. Kean is not a big enough name to escape Christie's pull. No NJ Republican is.

[pikachu]

This really speaks to how pathetic the Democratic performance downballot was during the Obama era, but it's likely that New Jersey will become the second largest state under total Democratic control. National progressives could be missing out on a good opportunity here if they're not going to even try in the primary.

[houseonaboat]

This really speaks to how pathetic the Democratic performance downballot was during the Obama era, but it's likely that New Jersey will become the second largest state under total Democratic control. National progressives could be missing out on a good opportunity here if they're not going to even try in the primary.

Extremely skeptical on Murphy but he's received a lot of endorsements from progressive organizations and unions, including the CWA (which was the largest union to endorse Sanders in the primary).

[KingSweden]

What are the downballot expectations this fall in New Jersey?

[Suburbia]

What are the downballot expectations this fall in New Jersey?

Former Goldman Sachs CEO Phil Murphy is the likely governor of N.J., he picks Assemblywoman Shavonda Sumter as his lieutenant governor running mate to win N.J. black voters whom he needs to win. (He can't afford low turnout in N.J.'s urban bases of Passaic, Middlesex, Perth Amboy, New Brunswick, Newark.)

The Republican nominee will most likely be Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno, who'll pick State Senator Mike Doherty as her lieutenant governor running mate to appeal to more conservative voters in Hunterdon, Morris, Union, Sussex, etc.

Murphy will most likely win, unless he doesn't screw it up. If he screws it up, it will be a major upset in the N.J. Democratic Party, and the Democratic Party nationally. It would show that the Democrats have major problems.

[Suburbia]

However, if Murphy wins, he'll probably run for reelection in 2021. N.J. GOP may have a better bench by then, if he does not do a good job. It depends who the president is in 2021. If it is Booker/Warren/Harris, he may have a hard time, due to "the president's party loses seats argument".

[pikachu]

What are the downballot expectations this fall in New Jersey?

I'm not expecting any major changes since the map's essentially an incumbent protection gerrymander. Just to give an idea of how entrenched it is, since 2004 the state senate's composition has only shifted by two seats from a 22-18 D to 24-16 D. The Assembly was a similar situation, though Democrats broke through in 2015 to almost reach a 2/3 majority.

[houseonaboat]

A few things:

1. Bernie declines to endorse Wisniewski (for now), cites the fact that his supporters are split between him and Murphy (I'm guessing the CWA played a part in this). http://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2017/01/bernie-sanders-not-endorsing-109114

2. Bernie's son Levi endorses Murphy, will campaign with him http://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2017/01/bernie-sanders-son-endorses-murphy-109110

[KingSweden]

A few things:

1. Bernie holds off on endorsing Wisniewski, cites the fact that his supporters are split between him and Murphy (I'm guessing the CWA played a part in this). http://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2017/01/bernie-sanders-not-endorsing-109114

2. Bernie's son Levi endorses Murphy, will campaign with him http://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2017/01/bernie-sanders-son-endorses-murphy-109110

Then there's no way Murphy is at risk

[Shadows]

A few things:

1. Bernie holds off on endorsing Wisniewski, cites the fact that his supporters are split between him and Murphy (I'm guessing the CWA played a part in this). http://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2017/01/bernie-sanders-not-endorsing-109114

2. Bernie's son Levi endorses Murphy, will campaign with him http://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2017/01/bernie-sanders-son-endorses-murphy-109110

Then there's no way Murphy is at risk

Jeff Weaver endorses Wisniewski!

Wisniewski is toast IMO but I would prefer him over Menendez in 2018 Senate race!

[houseonaboat]

A few things:

1. Bernie holds off on endorsing Wisniewski, cites the fact that his supporters are split between him and Murphy (I'm guessing the CWA played a part in this). http://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2017/01/bernie-sanders-not-endorsing-109114

2. Bernie's son Levi endorses Murphy, will campaign with him http://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2017/01/bernie-sanders-son-endorses-murphy-109110

Then there's no way Murphy is at risk

Jeff Weaver endorses Wisniewski!

Wisniewski is toast IMO but I would prefer him over Menendez in 2018 Senate race!

I'd prefer Lesniak but dude's 70 unfortunately.

[KingSweden]

A few things:

1. Bernie holds off on endorsing Wisniewski, cites the fact that his supporters are split between him and Murphy (I'm guessing the CWA played a part in this). http://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2017/01/bernie-sanders-not-endorsing-109114

2. Bernie's son Levi endorses Murphy, will campaign with him http://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2017/01/bernie-sanders-son-endorses-murphy-109110

Then there's no way Murphy is at risk

Jeff Weaver endorses Wisniewski!

Wisniewski is toast IMO but I would prefer him over Menendez in 2018 Senate race!

Holy crap I agree with Shadows on something

Fulop would be good against Menendez too, IMO

[Suburbia]

Lesniak or Fulop would be good choices in 2018 than Menendez or Torricelli. However, Frank Pallone or Rush Holt could win the Senate seat in 2018 if Menendez is in trouble.

[LabourJersey]

A few things:

1. Bernie holds off on endorsing Wisniewski, cites the fact that his supporters are split between him and Murphy (I'm guessing the CWA played a part in this). http://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2017/01/bernie-sanders-not-endorsing-109114

2. Bernie's son Levi endorses Murphy, will campaign with him http://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2017/01/bernie-sanders-son-endorses-murphy-109110

Then there's no way Murphy is at risk

Jeff Weaver endorses Wisniewski!

Wisniewski is toast IMO but I would prefer him over Menendez in 2018 Senate race!

Holy crap I agree with Shadows on something

Fulop would be good against Menendez too, IMO

There have been rumors that Fulop somehow had some connection to people involved in Bridgegate. I believe it was on POLITICO NJ when he announced he wasn't running for Governor. If that's even remotely true, I highly doubt he would run in '18.

I do think Menendez is probably going to retire, which would be good for the state, and assuming Wiz does lose the primary I hope he's the frontrunner for the Senate seat