2017: NJ Gubernatorial/legislative elections

[TheSaint250]

Sorry if this was already asked, but why did this race receive such little national attention?  Even Bernie's endorsement for Wisniewski didn't come until like, this past weekend if I'm not mistaken.

I'm guessing because the results were kinda set in stone already with Guadagno and Murphy pretty much guaranteed to win.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Governor
Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Kim Guadagno
112,680   46.8%
Jack Ciattarelli
74,839   31.1
Hirsh Singh
23,576   9.8
Joseph Rullo
15,690   6.5
Steven Rogers
14,057   5.8
99% reporting (6,308 of 6,386 precincts)

Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Philip Murphy
238,040   48.2%
Jim Johnson
108,301   21.9
John Wisniewski
107,308   21.7
Raymond Lesniak
24,027   4.9
William Brennan
11,061   2.2
Mark Zinna
5,115   1.0
99% reporting (6,308 of 6,386 precincts)

----

I take this opportunity to announce my endorsement of Murphy. Let's move past the Christie machine.

[Holmes]

I'm glad Johnson got second. Wiz sucked.

[LabourJersey]

I'm afraid that a higher minimum wage will make it harder for teenagers to get jobs and I'm afraid that Murphy will raise the smoking age and school leaving age, but I want marijuana legalized.

I understand the concerns about minimum wage increases, but why is raising the smoking age and school leave age bad things?

[darklordoftech]

I'm glad Johnson got second. Wiz sucked.

Agreed. Wiz is too authoritarian for my liking. He wanted drinking coffee while driving to count as a DUI.

[darklordoftech]

I'm afraid that a higher minimum wage will make it harder for teenagers to get jobs and I'm afraid that Murphy will raise the smoking age and school leaving age, but I want marijuana legalized.

I understand the concerns about minimum wage increases, but why is raising the smoking age and school leave age bad things?

For one, higher school leaving age = dependency on parents for longer and less teenagers employed = more whining about lazy youth. Also, more people in school means more people who our taxpayer dollars have to go to.

[KingSweden]

I'm glad Johnson got second. Wiz sucked.

Agreed. Wiz is too authoritarian for my liking. He wanted drinking coffee while driving to count as a DUI.

How on earth is that a position that anyone in America has? WTF?

[darklordoftech]

I'm glad Johnson got second. Wiz sucked.

Agreed. Wiz is too authoritarian for my liking. He wanted drinking coffee while driving to count as a DUI.

How on earth is that a position that anyone in America has? WTF?

http://www.nj.com/traffic/index.ssf/2016/08/plan_to_ban_coffee_from_nj_drivers_hands_would_be_strongest_in_nation.html

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

At this point, I would be surprised if Guadagno will even break 40% in november, but things can change... that is a long time in politics...

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The below are maps of where Murphy and Guadagno were strongest and weakest last night. These maps pair them up against all opposing votes combined. Since both Murphy and Guadagno received under a majority of the vote, it is not surprising that the opposition got a majority in many counties. But the strongest and weakest areas for each may be telling for November:


http://i.imgur.com/c0Gaa9D.png

As you can see, Murphy was strongest in the strongest democratic areas in the state, Essex and Houston, where a big margin will be crucial. He also had a majority in two counties that voted for Christie four years ago - Union and Passiac. His weakest areas were strongly republican counties that he doesn't need to worry about.


http://i.imgur.com/xxukDdr.png

Guadagno's map is a little troubling to say the least. She ran up the score in many republican counties in the southern part of the state, but in the swing counties of Gloucester, Burlington, and Middlesex, her opposition got more than 60% of the vote (Murphy also lost to his opposition here, but he at least exceeded 40%). In Somerset and Essex, her opposition got more than 70% of the vote, a major embarrassment. She also lagged in the strongly republican counties of Warren and Sussex.

Also, for what it's worth, this is the total R vote vs. total D vote calculation:

DEMS: 496,012 (67.3%)
GOP: 241,192 (32.7%)

Total Turnout: 737,204

[Pollster]

Just put a GCS poll of this race in the field. Will report results when I have them.

My analysis of this race going forward:

-Guadagno's pro-choice and strongly anti-gas tax positions will keep her competitive in Somerset and Middlesex counties and will help her hold Monmouth, and her rebuking of Trump will help her stay above water in Morris County, though I anticipate Morris will be closer than ever before.

-Guadagno's support of school choice and strong anti-sanctuary cities position - in addition to general disapproval of Christie/GOP in general - will give Murphy the opportunity to run up potentially historic margins in Camden, Essex and Hudson counties that Guadagno likely won't be able to overcome.

-George Norcross, who essentially runs the state of NJ, supports Murphy but was very clearly intent on running Steve Sweeney before Murphy boxed him out of the primary. Norcross will still deliver the South Jersey vote for Murphy, but Norcross is not used to not getting what he wants. If the margins are smaller than average it could represent remaining animosity that could foreshadow Trenton gridlock between Murphy allies and Norcross allies.

[BuckeyeNut]

Last night's primaries evince the need for run-offs in all elections.

[Suburbia]

Last night's primaries evince the need for run-offs in all elections.

Unfortunately, New Jersey elections don't have runoff elections. New Jersey politics and Illinois is too boss-controlled.

[publicunofficial]

I look forward to Murphy's win, and I look forward to me hating the absolute s**t out of him once he's governor.

[darklordoftech]

Just put a GCS poll of this race in the field. Will report results when I have them.

My analysis of this race going forward:

-Guadagno's pro-choice and strongly anti-gas tax positions will keep her competitive in Somerset and Middlesex counties and will help her hold Monmouth, and her rebuking of Trump will help her stay above water in Morris County, though I anticipate Morris will be closer than ever before.

-Guadagno's support of school choice and strong anti-sanctuary cities position - in addition to general disapproval of Christie/GOP in general - will give Murphy the opportunity to run up potentially historic margins in Camden, Essex and Hudson counties that Guadagno likely won't be able to overcome.

-George Norcross, who essentially runs the state of NJ, supports Murphy but was very clearly intent on running Steve Sweeney before Murphy boxed him out of the primary. Norcross will still deliver the South Jersey vote for Murphy, but Norcross is not used to not getting what he wants. If the margins are smaller than average it could represent remaining animosity that could foreshadow Trenton gridlock between Murphy allies and Norcross allies.

Has Guadagno taken a stance for or against LGBT rights?

[hewie_hursh]

Morris County:

i've got a question... what program do you use to precinct county maps for NJ? I'd like to do one for sussex county.

[Pollster]

My GCS poll completed the other night (took a very long time to complete for some reason). I'm having trouble exporting the results but nothing shocking: Murphy winning nearly 2 to 1, leading every demographic. He has huge leads in Newark/Camden and is only narrowly trailing in the shore points.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I look forward to Murphy's win, and I look forward to me hating the absolute s**t out of him once he's governor.

[pikachu]

Was a little bored, so I made some maps of the primary.

Top row has the Democrats, with Murphy in blue, Wiz in green, and Johnson in purple, with the last map being the second-place finisher in each county. Bottom row has the Republicans, with Guadagno in red and Ciattarelli in yellow. Maps could be better quality if I was less lazy, but whatever.

[Lord Admirale]

I look forward to Murphy's win, and I look forward to me hating the absolute s**t out of him once he's governor.

Same. I'll probably vote for him, but he just seems so fake to me. His weird smile and his voice, which sounds like a poor impression of Christopher Walken.

[Virginiá]

This is about the Assembly elections, but I will put it here regardless, since it makes more sense just to have a consolidated NJ 2017 elections thread anyway:

https://patch.com/new-jersey/newmilford-nj/republican-38th-district-candidate-withdraws-race-switches-parties

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Kind of funny because as I recall, Republicans also almost lost a challenger in this district in 2015 as well, and the guy (Anthony Cappola), who wrote a pretty offensive book, stayed in and lost. Not that this particular district is all that competitive anyway. It hasn't been represented by a Republican in any capacity for over a decade.

[LabourJersey]

This is about the Assembly elections, but I will put it here regardless, since it makes more sense just to have a consolidated NJ 2017 elections thread anyway:

https://patch.com/new-jersey/newmilford-nj/republican-38th-district-candidate-withdraws-race-switches-parties

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Kind of funny because as I recall, Republicans also almost lost a challenger in this district in 2015 as well, and the guy (Anthony Cappola), who wrote a pretty offensive book, stayed in and lost. Not that this particular district is all that competitive anyway. It hasn't been represented by a Republican in any capacity for over a decade.

This was a very odd story, and given this is New Jersey I have to wonder whether Seymour was promised something by Murphy or the Bergen County Dems in return for dropping out. But it's not like the Republicans were going to have a fighting chance in the 38th anyway

[Mike Thick]

This article detailing the sheer f**ckery of Christie's beach visit today is a perfect encapsulation of how he both has no ethical fortitude and really doesn't give a crap anymore.

https://thinkprogress.org/amp/p/2c4d47384129

[heatcharger]

Lol, Guadagno completely throws Christie under the bus.

[houseonaboat]

Roughly even odds I would say on Shavonda Sumter and Chris Christie being selected as Murphy's running mate.