2017: NJ Gubernatorial/legislative elections

[Hydera]

Guadagno managed to do better in NJ than Trump did in 2016 lmao

Two words: Low Turnout.

Lower turnout than the last 4 governors races.

Lots of people thought it was a done deal. If more energy had been poured then the margins would be higher. Republicans still have a stronger floor than democrats.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Dems seem to have a pretty hard ceiling of 45-46% in Morris County... the margin can vary based on third party performance (they got 4-5% in 2016 and Trump barely crossed 50% in the county, for example) but Dems just can't seem to get that last 5%. Taxes is probably the key thing here and as long as any Dem runs on raising them Republicans here will come out in droves against it.

[henster]

I fear Murphy will end up like Corzine or worse a NJ Malloy. His #1 priority should be lowering property taxes if he wants to have any hope at a second term.

[TheSaint250]

This is an underwhelming performance, really. I thought Murphy would at least be able to pick off Morris County, but instead he lost it by 8. Plus he only barely picked up Somerset. Maybe he shouldn't have ran so far to the left, but whatever. Hopefully he governs like his true self, but we'll see.

I believe Guadagno barely won Somerset

[heatcharger]

This is an underwhelming performance, really. I thought Murphy would at least be able to pick off Morris County, but instead he lost it by 8. Plus he only barely picked up Somerset. Maybe he shouldn't have ran so far to the left, but whatever. Hopefully he governs like his true self, but we'll see.

I believe Guadagno barely won Somerset

Yeah I was looking at older results, my bad. What a lame performance here by Murphy.

[Bojack Horseman]

The final tally in the Senate is a 24-16 D majority; one incumbent from each party lost, so it's a push.

In the Assembly, Democrats have picked up at least two seats with two still too close to call. In both of those seats, the Democrat is in the lead. For the moment it's 54-24 D with those two outstanding. Irrespective of how those two races go, the Democrats have secured a supermajority in the Assembly.

[BoAtlantis]

It's better to compare it to 2013 when Christie won 60%-38%, just 1 year after NJ gave Obama 18 point victory. It's a 17 point swing if you put 43%-56% in perspective.

Part of the reason why NJ can't go more dark blue is that they're represented more heavily by older group.

50-64 year old group made up 36%
65 and older made up 24%

Compare that to VA where,

50-64 year old group made up 33%
65 and older made up 20%

[Mr.Phips]

The final tally in the Senate is a 24-16 D majority; one incumbent from each party lost, so it's a push.

In the Assembly, Democrats have picked up at least two seats with two still too close to call. In both of those seats, the Democrat is in the lead. For the moment it's 54-24 D with those two outstanding. Irrespective of how those two races go, the Democrats have secured a supermajority in the Assembly.

Democrats also picked up Diane Allen's old seat, so the Senate is plus one for Dems.

[Lord Admirale]

I fear Murphy will end up like Corzine or worse a NJ Malloy. His #1 priority should be lowering property taxes if he wants to have any hope at a second term.

I’ve been saying this for a very long time. Murphy is just Jon Corzine 2.0.

[Nyvin]

The final tally in the Senate is a 24-16 D majority; one incumbent from each party lost, so it's a push.

In the Assembly, Democrats have picked up at least two seats with two still too close to call. In both of those seats, the Democrat is in the lead. For the moment it's 54-24 D with those two outstanding. Irrespective of how those two races go, the Democrats have secured a supermajority in the Assembly.

I'm counting 25 seats for Dems in the State Senate on NYT Elections,  I think it's plus one for them there.

[Bojack Horseman]

The final tally in the Senate is a 24-16 D majority; one incumbent from each party lost, so it's a push.

In the Assembly, Democrats have picked up at least two seats with two still too close to call. In both of those seats, the Democrat is in the lead. For the moment it's 54-24 D with those two outstanding. Irrespective of how those two races go, the Democrats have secured a supermajority in the Assembly.

I'm counting 25 seats for Dems in the State Senate on NYT Elections,  I think it's plus one for them there.

Ballotpedia needs to update their tally then.

[IceSpear]

Pretty disappointing that Murphy could only match Clinton's margin in this environment and with Christie's 15% approval rating.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, this is pretty damn underwhelming compared to everything else.

I fear Murphy will end up like Corzine or worse a NJ Malloy. His #1 priority should be lowering property taxes if he wants to have any hope at a second term.

roflmao

[The Other Castro]

On the one hand, it would have been nice if Murphy won by more. On the other hand, he did an awesome midair split leap onto stage for his victory speech, which was awesome.

[cvparty]

so murphy overall did about the same as clinton, but he did better in south jersey (see gloucester in particular) and worse in the northern suburbs (see somerset). maybe this is an insight into how bernie would’ve generally performed in 2016

[BudgieForce]

Pretty disappointing that Murphy could only match Clinton's margin in this environment and with Christie's 15% approval rating.

Its pretty disappointing that Turnout is going to be well under 40%.

[Lord Admirale]

so murphy overall did about the same as clinton, but he did better in south jersey (see gloucester in particular) and worse in the northern suburbs (see somerset). maybe this is an insight into how bernie would’ve generally performed in 2016

No

[cvparty]

so murphy overall did about the same as clinton, but he did better in south jersey (see gloucester in particular) and worse in the northern suburbs (see somerset). maybe this is an insight into how bernie would’ve generally performed in 2016

No

you don't think so? I'm not talking about the actual numerical margin btw but the counties relative to each other

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

How'd we do in Gottheimer's 5th?

[Keep cool-idge]

I’m surprised about the fact Murphy only won by 11-14 points I thought for sure 15-18 points.
I think that Kim Guadagno could be a good candidate if bob Mendez is actually charged.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I’m surprised about the fact Murphy only won by 11-14 points I thought for sure 15-18 points.
I think that Kim Guadagno could be a good candidate if bob Mendez is actually charged.

He's already been charged, I think you mean convicted. Anyways, I hope he gets primaried out, or just kicked out, allowing Murphy to fill the seat with Generic D number whatever.

[MAINEiac4434]

I’m surprised about the fact Murphy only won by 11-14 points I thought for sure 15-18 points.
I think that Kim Guadagno could be a good candidate if bob Mendez is actually charged.

She will be forever linked to Chris Christie. That is not good.

Plus New Jerseyans are much more likely to send a Republican to the Governors' Mansion than the Senate.

[Holmes]

I think maybe Democratic turnout wasn't as high as we thought it was going to be months ago. Maybe because Murphy's victory was a foregone conclusion and maybe Menendez also played a part. Republicans in Ocean and Monmouth showed up, of course.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Looks like Somerset just narrowly flipped back to Murphy after all.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Looks like Somerset just narrowly flipped back to Murphy after all.

Also the Dem is now leading for County Clerk there by 128 votes. If it holds he'll be the only countywide Dem elected official and the first one in God knows how long