2017: NJ Gubernatorial/legislative elections

[jman123]

Any predictions for state legislature?

[MAINEiac4434]

Maybe Guadagno could run for House against Frank Pallone in NJ-6 (my congressional district) next year in 2018 or run for Senate in 2018 or 2020.

Or, her political career could be potentially over.

Man, she's permanently tied to Christie. Her career is over. We're watching her march to the Elysian Fields.

[Virginiá]

Man, she's permanently tied to Christie. Her career is over. We're watching her march to the Elysian Fields.

I actually kind of feel bad for her. Granted, this born out of ignorance of her political history, but I don't think any politician should deserve to have their career substantially hurt or possibly even ruined just because they served alongside such a hated politician. I'd rather she have a shot to succeed or strike out on her own.

Then again, never say never. There is no guarantee Christie's stench sticks to her. If she is savvy enough, she can find a way back, if that is what she wants.

[Suburbia]

Man, she's permanently tied to Christie. Her career is over. We're watching her march to the Elysian Fields.

I actually kind of feel bad for her. Granted, this born out of ignorance of her political history, but I don't think any politician should deserve to have their career substantially hurt or possibly even ruined just because they served alongside such a hated politician. I'd rather she have a shot to succeed or strike out on her own.

Then again, never say never. There is no guarantee Christie's stench sticks to her. If she is savvy enough, she can find a way back, if that is what she wants.

Guadagno can run for NJ-06 against Pallone in the future.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Phil Murphy could win Morris County, the first Democratic gubernatorial nominee to win red Morris in a long time.

Interesting. Do you have an idea on how folks in Morris feel about this race?

I know a couple of people from Morris, it's a wealthy, Wall Street trader suburban bedroom community place, and it's also Christie's home. Murphy could win the county if Guadagno gets low and unenthusiastic turnout from the GOP. I don't think Trump supporters would vote for her.

I live in Morris and I would believe there are lots of typically wealthy, well-educated people around here that could be swayed to the Dems nationally under certain circumstances (i.e. Clinton v Trump) but would never vote for the state Dems bc of property taxes and state Dems being associated with "urban", "ghetto" (i.e. Black and Hispanic) areas of the state like Newark and Paterson, with many of the older residents being white flight "refugees" from those areas. But if Trumpist and general Republican enthusiasm is low and Dem enthusiasm is high, as seems likely will be the case, then I could see it flipping.

[Mike Thick]

RNC won’t back NJ gubernatorial candidate over criticism of Trump: report

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/342730-rnc-wont-back-new-jersey-governor-candidate-over-loyalty-report

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Oh well. I suppose it doesn't matter, since she really does not have much of a chance at winning anyway. In fact, it's quite possible that Murphy's consistently monstrous lead factored into them staying out of the race.

This might be a little conspiratorial, but I think it's more that they're using a race they wouldn't have won anyway to show other Republicans what might happen to them if they don't tow the party line.

[darklordoftech]

http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/New-Jersey-Raises-Minimum-Smoking-Age-to-21-435864343.html

I wonder if Christie was trying to prevent Murphy from promising to do this if he's elected.

[houseonaboat]

Sheila Oliver to be Murphy's running mate.

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/07/we_now_know_phil_murphys_pick_for_lieutenant_gover.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

[Lord Admirale]

Well, all of us in New Jersey are screwed. Murphy's gonna win a landslide. I'm thinking he could easily hit 60% mostly due to low GOP turnout. And it wouldn't be much better if Guadagno was governor, either. But, Phil Murphy's gonna jack up the taxes, which are already bad enough here, so...yeah.

[Suburbia]

With former Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver as Phil Murphy's lieutenant governor running mate, she could help him with minority voters.

Some of the minority voters stayed home in Newark, Orange, Camden, Elizabeth, Perth Amboy, etc.

[jman123]

With former Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver as Phil Murphy's lieutenant governor running mate, she could help him with minority voters.

Some of the minority voters stayed home in Newark, Orange, Camden, Elizabeth, Perth Amboy, etc.

Murphy will definitely win the hispanic vote IMO

[Suburbia]

With former Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver as Phil Murphy's lieutenant governor running mate, she could help him with minority voters.

Some of the minority voters stayed home in Newark, Orange, Camden, Elizabeth, Perth Amboy, etc.

Murphy will definitely win the hispanic vote IMO

Murphy may win the Hispanic vote in the 60%-80% of the percentage.

Kim Guadagno's running mate is likely to be a Hispanic man, either Woodcliff Lake, N.J. mayor Carlos Rendo, a Marco Rubio loyalist from his 2016 campaign.

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/07/guadagno_picks_her_running_mate_a_bergen_county_ma.html#incart_most-readpolitics

http://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2017/07/25/source-guadagno-to-pick-rendo-as-running-mate-113592

Murphy and Guadagno are not choosing bland white males like state Senator Paul Sarlo or state Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli.

Meanwhile...former Rudy Giuliani loyalist and former New York City Police Commissioner Bernard Kerik attacked Oliver as anti-police.

https://www.insidernj.com/keriks-take-oliver/

If Kerik didn't have felon ties, he could have ran for a Senate seat in NJ. He lives in New Jersey.

[Suburbia]

It's official:

Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno picks Woodcliff Lake, N.J. mayor Carlos Rendo as her lieutenant governor running mate. He is a Latino, a Cuban-American.


http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/07/guadagno_picks_states_only_gop_latino_mayor_as_run.html#incart_river_index

He is Marco Rubio's friend and N.J. fundraiser during his 2016 Rubio presidential campaign.

[Suburbia]

Guadagno blasts Murphy over his $1.3 billion tax plan

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/08/guadagno_blasts_murphy_over_his_13_billion_tax_pla.html#incart_river_index

Lt. Gov. Guadagno, State Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr., and Assembly Minority Leader Jon Bramnick railed against Democrat Phil Murphy's tax increase proposals.

Murphy will be soon Gov. Phil Murphy, so expect tax increases.

However, he says that he will tax the wealthiest New Jerseyans.

[MT Treasurer]

Nothing against her, but she's way too low energy. I feel like the NJ GOP should have gone with Ciattarelli. He wouldn't have won, but it would have been closer for sure.

[Suburbia]

Nothing against her, but she's way too low energy. I feel like the NJ GOP should have gone with Ciattarelli. He wouldn't have won, but it would have been closer for sure.

Ciattarelli would have given Murphy a tougher challenge. He'd still be leading in the race, but by 10-15 points. Ciattarelli would have gotten more enthusiasm.

Guadagno is no Christie Whitman.

[Suburbia]

I will be voting for Murphy-Oliver 2017 this November, but hopefully they do a good job. If not, a Republican will be elected in 2021 if they can distance themselves from Christie/Guadagno.

If Murphy raises taxes like crazy like Florio did in the early 1990s, he'll be another Democratic one-term New Jersey governor.

[Suburbia]

Guadagno stumbles with the Confederate flag issue.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AZpY461HXi4

[LabourJersey]

Nothing against her, but she's way too low energy. I feel like the NJ GOP should have gone with Ciattarelli. He wouldn't have won, but it would have been closer for sure.

Ciattarelli would have given Murphy a tougher challenge. He'd still be leading in the race, but by 10-15 points. Ciattarelli would have gotten more enthusiasm.

Guadagno is no Christie Whitman.

This is pretty accurate. Guadagno is a truly terrible campaigner and has been comically bad at going after Murphy. At this point, she'll probably get 35%

[Suburbia]

This is the NJ 2013 gubernatorial results map. Christie in 2009 and 2013 won places like Glen Ridge, a suburb near Montclair, won Woodbridge, Old Bridge, Sayreville, South Amboy in Middlesex (my area). He won those places probably because of property taxes and jobs. I wonder if Murphy will win back some of those areas that Corzine won in 2005.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=182724.0

[Suburbia]

First general election governor's race is tonight:

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/10/nj_gubernatorial_debate_2017_governor_debate_tonight.html#incart_river_index

[cvparty]

rip this isn’t being talked about at all

[Suburbia]

It's sad. Christie decimated the NJ GOP, and this election is not being talked about as it should be. It's New Jersey!

[kyc0705]

It's sad. Christie decimated the NJ GOP, and this election is not being talked about as it should be. It's New Jersey!

I had no idea there was a debate. Did anything interesting happen?

[fluffypanther19]

rip this isn’t being talked about at all

this is why http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/10/new_poll_has_guadagno_trailing_murphy_badly_but_th.html