2017: NJ Gubernatorial/legislative elections

[Brittain33]

I’m surprised about the fact Murphy only won by 11-14 points I thought for sure 15-18 points.
I think that Kim Guadagno could be a good candidate if bob Mendez is actually charged.

Guadagno didn't lose too badly because everyone knew she would lose and so turnout was low.

[TheSaint250]

Looks like Somerset just narrowly flipped back to Murphy after all.

Where are you seeing that? I'm still seeing on NYT that she won.

EDIT: I see it now somewhere else.

That's a shame.

[pikachu]

Idk what people were expecting. NJ is a not a super-elastic state, and all things considered, this was a pretty good performance. The margin was larger than in 2005 Gov and 2006 Senate, and even though it's smaller than 2008/2012, 2008 is probably going to be the best set of circumstance Dems will have for a long time and 2012 was right after a massive hurricane. The majorities in the legislature also are the highest for Dems since the '70s. Not at all unrealistic to think that Democrats can still pick up 2, 3, and 7 next year.

[Bidenworth2020]

I’m surprised about the fact Murphy only won by 11-14 points I thought for sure 15-18 points.
I think that Kim Guadagno could be a good candidate if bob Mendez is actually charged.

He's already been charged, I think you mean convicted. Anyways, I hope he gets primaried out, or just kicked out, allowing Murphy to fill the seat with Generic D number whatever.

not that I do not like gottheimer, but I would prefer the seat

[Bidenworth2020]

How'd we do in Gottheimer's 5th?

it appears murphy won it by less than a point:P

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

How'd we do in Gottheimer's 5th?

it appears murphy won it by less than a point:P

That's fantastic! Thank you! Hillary lost it last year, so improvement, I think Gottheimer holds it next year.

[Lord Admirale]

How'd we do in Gottheimer's 5th?

it appears murphy won it by less than a point:P

That's fantastic! Thank you! Hillary lost it last year, so improvement, I think Gottheimer holds it next year.

I'll try drafting Josh to run against Murphy in 2021 since Murphy will probably have 20% approval ratings by then.

[Tekken_Guy]

Turnout was rather weak in Franklin County. That's probably how Murphy lost Somerset.

Gloucester swung hard towards him in every town.

[Miles]

FWIW, I have Murphy flipping NJ-11.

[Mr.Phips]

FWIW, I have Murphy flipping NJ-11.

Thanks! Did Murphy win NJ-02, NJ-05, and NJ-07 too? I guess he lost NJ-03?

My back of the envelope calculations have him losing NJ-03 and NJ-05 narrowly.

[Miles]

^ I have Murphy holding NJ-05 by about 1-1.5% but losing NJ-07 by 5-6%.

[Miles]

Tweeting out more detailed stuff later, but I'm actually getting Murphy carring NJ-05 by a few hundred votes.

NJ-03 was 51/47 Guadagno.