2017: NJ Gubernatorial/legislative elections

[KingSweden]

Congratulations Governor Corzine.... err, Governor Murphy.

[KingSweden]

Another Goldman Sachs CEO? Gross.

TBF Murphy was an ambassador and seems to be cut from fairly progressive cloth compared to Sweeney. Still, basically Corsine part 2

[KingSweden]

Murphy will win this in a landslide, IMO

[KingSweden]

What are the downballot expectations this fall in New Jersey?

[KingSweden]

A few things:

1. Bernie holds off on endorsing Wisniewski, cites the fact that his supporters are split between him and Murphy (I'm guessing the CWA played a part in this). http://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2017/01/bernie-sanders-not-endorsing-109114

2. Bernie's son Levi endorses Murphy, will campaign with him http://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2017/01/bernie-sanders-son-endorses-murphy-109110

Then there's no way Murphy is at risk

[KingSweden]

A few things:

1. Bernie holds off on endorsing Wisniewski, cites the fact that his supporters are split between him and Murphy (I'm guessing the CWA played a part in this). http://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2017/01/bernie-sanders-not-endorsing-109114

2. Bernie's son Levi endorses Murphy, will campaign with him http://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2017/01/bernie-sanders-son-endorses-murphy-109110

Then there's no way Murphy is at risk

Jeff Weaver endorses Wisniewski!

Wisniewski is toast IMO but I would prefer him over Menendez in 2018 Senate race!

Holy crap I agree with Shadows on something

Fulop would be good against Menendez too, IMO

[KingSweden]

NYT on Piscopo's potential run for Governor:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/20/nyregion/joe-piscopo-new-jersey-governor.html?_r=1&referer=https://www.google.com/

Yeah Joe. Run as an independent.

If Piscopo runs, who does he spoil the most? Guadagno/Ciattarelli or Murphy/Wisnieswski?

Probably Guadagno

[KingSweden]

Something interesting is that Wisniewski still hasn't qualified for public financing. A candidate needs to raise (and pledge to spend) $430,000 in the primary to get 2-for-1 matching in the state, and Wisniewski's last fundraising report (in late January) had him only at $230,000. A Politico article yesterday indicated that he still wasn't there, which is extraordinary in itself as Jim Johnson (who has zero chance of winning) has already crossed that mark, if only barely so.

Murphy, even without his $10 million loan, has raised $1.3 million just for the primary, and has $11.3 million and change in his primary campaign war chest.

The initial excitement has dissipated. He's a dead candidate walking right now.

Personally I still think Wiz could get into a stronger position in the next two months than you might think. Murphy has already started attacking Wiz in rather shady ways on guns, environmental issues etc. I think it's very possible that national progressive groups start to mobilize in the last few weeks to "BEAT GOLDMAN SACHS AND THE ESTABLISHMENT!!!!" and turn the primary (briefly) into a national thing.

Of course I could be wrong and Murphy will just sail through with 70% +, but I am still skeptical a large majority of Democratic primary voters are going to turn out for a Goldman Sachs guy in 2017.

Hasn't Murphy taken some pretty progressive stances that defang a lot of the left-wing complaints about him, though?

[KingSweden]

Murphy won the Working Families Alliance endorsement (like New York's WFP, but not a formal political party).

Congratulations Governor Murphy.

[KingSweden]

Joe Piscopo will not run for governor as a Republican, he will most likely run as an Independent.

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/03/its_official_piscopo_wont_run_as_a_republican_as_a.html#incart_river_home

Congratulations Governor Murphy.

[KingSweden]

If I lived in NJ and Murphy was the nominee, I'd vote for Piscopo. Phil Murphy brands himself as a "progressive" while being part of the establishment.

Proof neither of these words has any tangible meaning

[KingSweden]

An interesting article about New Jersey Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jim Johnson. He could be second place in the June 6 primary. Wisniewski and Lesniak have really underperformed as candidates, but there has not even been a Democratic gubernatorial debate yet. Wisniewski could jump back in attention if he has debate zingers against Murphy and Johnson--but he needs to run TV ads (a must in NJ politics).

Johnson is a Montclair resident--he could do well with the white liberals in that area around Montclair, Bloomfield, Little Falls, Glen Ridge. He could do well in Newark and other majority-black areas, but with Booker and Menendez's support of Murphy, he may not.

http://observer.com/2017/04/can-jim-johnson-beat-njs-democratic-machine/

If Jim Johnson does come in second how likely is it Murphy picks him as Lt. Governor?

zero odds. Outside of the fact that Johnson has criticized Murphy's signature proposal (a public bank) and accused him of violating NJ election law, Murphy strategically and politically needs someone with political experience on the ticket. And, practically speaking, he owes North Jersey (and specifically state Democratic chairman John Currie) a favor for handing him the nomination nine months before the primary, so he'll likely pick Currie ally Shavonda Sumter.

I'm assuming she's black, so he'd have a minority on the ticket either way that way

[KingSweden]

Yeah that's not a real poll.

[KingSweden]

I really hope the attacks on Murphy don't bloody him too much for the fall.

[KingSweden]

As an example of the negative attacks against Murphy so far this primary, this is what the Johnson camp recently (today) accused Murphy of: http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/06/jim_johnson_hits_phil_murphy_over_goldman_sach_asi.html

Headline: Phil Murphy's rival just accused him of profiting from slave labor at Goldman Sachs

It's been the same thread of attacks for a while, though this is probably the most negative attack so far. Fair or not, it speaks to the lack of coverage of the primary that attacks like these haven't made any significant noise.

That is a grotesque line of attack

[KingSweden]

As an example of the negative attacks against Murphy so far this primary, this is what the Johnson camp recently (today) accused Murphy of: http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/06/jim_johnson_hits_phil_murphy_over_goldman_sach_asi.html

Headline: Phil Murphy's rival just accused him of profiting from slave labor at Goldman Sachs

It's been the same thread of attacks for a while, though this is probably the most negative attack so far. Fair or not, it speaks to the lack of coverage of the primary that attacks like these haven't made any significant noise.

That is a grotesque line of attack

It's a little grotesque, but at the same time it's fair game. If someone in big finance wishes to run for a major office in the modern Democratic party, they should expect stuff like this is going to come up.

I get that finance is unpopular at the grassroots, and for fair reasons, but that is still an atrocious line of attack against anyone when considering this nation's history with slavery. Not to mention Murphy seems to be running on an unusually progressive platform for a Wall Street Democrat

[KingSweden]

I'm glad Johnson got second. Wiz sucked.

Agreed. Wiz is too authoritarian for my liking. He wanted drinking coffee while driving to count as a DUI.

How on earth is that a position that anyone in America has? WTF?