2017: NJ Gubernatorial/legislative elections

[Suburbia]

I am from NJ.

For the Democrats:

Stephen Sweeney
Phil Murphy
Steve Fulop
Ray Lesniak
Ron Rice, Sr.

For the Republicans:
Kim Guadango
Jon Bramnick
Tom Kean, Jr.
Jay Webber

I think it will be Sweeney vs. Gaudango. Sweeney wins by 10 points, and African American voters in Essex, Hudson, Union counties put Sweeney on top. If black turnout is very low, then Guadango may have a small chance of winning. The suburban vote in New Jersey could help Sweeney, but he may be too conservative for New Jersey Democrats.

[Suburbia]

New Jersey Assemblywoman Shavonda Sumter (D-Paterson) is likely running for governor in 2017. If elected, she would be the first African American governor and the second female governor. It will be interesting. The black vote in Essex, Union, Middlesex, Passaic counties may go to Sumter, or they may go to Fulop, the Jersey City mayor.

[Suburbia]

Senate President Stephen Sweeney could face backlash from the teachers unions (NJEA) for failing to put pension funding for a constitutional amendment vote in November 2017. He may lose their support, and unions and Big Labor is crucial to winning a Democratic primary in any state.

However, Philip Murphy, the former Goldman Sachs executive, is the favorite, but Jersey City mayor Steve Fulop, a young rising liberal, could make the primary competitive.


http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/08/with_pension_guarantee_dead_states_largest_union_l.html#incart_most-commented_politics_article

[Suburbia]

Barbara Buono deserves to run again, she was high energy and competent in an election where Dems abandoned her.

Buono moved to Oregon in 2014 or 2015 I believe. The New Jersey Democrats did not even do so much to help her campaign with infrastructure, voter registration, etc. In 2013, before Bridgegate, Christie was seen as the savior of the GOP. Buono is out of N.J. politics, and she probably knew why she left the Garden State.

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2015/07/two_years_after_hitting_the_campaign_trail_buono_t.html

In all honesty, the only Republican that can win in 2017 is Tom Kean, Jr. He's competent, suburban, conservative-friendly. Yes, he lost to Bob Menendez in 2006, a Democratic wave year, but he comes from one of the key areas in the state where Republicans have to do well in in order to win statewide. Suburban Union County. Kean could beat Steve Sweeney or Phil Murphy if he can distance himself from Chris Christie's record.

[Suburbia]

#DraftMillySilva please.

Milly Silva is probably done in politics too, but if she ran, she could appeal to Latino voters in Hudson, Union, Middlesex counties. Phil Murphy, Steve Sweeney, or John Wisniewski, who supported Bernie Sanders in N.J. are the likely Democratic nominees. If Clinton wins the White House, will they distance from her? If Trump wins the White House, will Guadagno, Kean, Bramnick, or Shaun Golden distance from Trump and Christie?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Wisniewski

[Suburbia]

Somerset County Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli (R-Somerset) may be running in 2017. He's widely expected to announce late this month, September.

http://observer.com/2016/09/2017-governors-race-ciattarelli-prepares-for-his-closeup-later-this-month/

[Suburbia]

The Mayor of Paramus, New Jersey, of Bergen County, endorsed Democratic gubernatorial frontrunner Phil Murphy on Friday. Bergen County is seen as a swing county in statewide elections.

http://www.njspotlight.com/stories/16/09/26/murphy-picks-up-endorsement-of-paramus-mayor-harbinger-for-bergen-county/

[Suburbia]

After Christie, I feel like the Democrats will return only to repeat the cycle of parties changing horrible NJ Governor after horrible NJ Governor.

True. In my opinion, the last greatest N.J. governor was Tom Kean, Sr. He won the majority of New Jerseyans in his 1985 reelection. He's a moderate Republican.

[Suburbia]

Jersey City mayor Steve Fulop shocked New Jersey political observers by announcing that he will not run for governor in 2017 as widely expected. He endorsed Phil Murphy, who is the Democratic frontrunner for governor.

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/09/fulop_wont_run_for_nj_governor_shifting_2017_race_to_succeed_christie.html#incart_most_shared-politics

[Suburbia]

Congratulations Governor Corzine.... err, Governor Murphy.

Hold your horses. Jack Ciattarelli, Tom Kean, Jr. and Kim Guadagno may have something to say. If Sweeney and Murphy is seen as unelectable, N.J. Democrats could force Cory Booker to leave the Senate and run for governor. They could recruit Dick Codey to run for governor as well.

http://observer.com/2016/03/kim-guadagno-s-2017-options-and-prospects/

[Suburbia]

Goldman Sachs exec vs Steve Sweeney. Thanks NJ Democratic Party for reminding me why I dislike you so much,

N.J. Democrats still have other options: Assemblywoman Shavonda Sumter (D-. She'd be the first black governor New Jersey ever had, but she doesn't have the money or the name identification to win. She'd be a good lieutenant governor running mate for Sweeney or Murphy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shavonda_E._Sumter

http://www.nj.com/opinion/index.ssf/2016/02/could_she_be_new_jerseys_next_governor_the_backgro.html

[Suburbia]

It would be wonderful if Wisniewski actually won. We need more progressive leaders on the national scale, especially since Warren and Sanders are both up there in age.

Wisniewski is a good man, disagree with some issues, but he's a good man. If he doesn't run for governor, he can run for Frank Pallone's House Seat if Bob Menendez goes to jail or resigns by 2018. N.J. Democrats would not want Bob Torricelli or Steve Fulop, or even Steve Sweeney to run for Menendez's seat.

[Suburbia]

https://www.google.com/amp/www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20161007_Sweeney_will_not_run_for_governor.html%3famphtml=y - Sweeney indeed not running next year!

Yes. It's a surprising development. Phil Murphy really impressed and influenced the N.J. Democratic party bosses. However, he'll have to win Essex County, where the black and Latino population is centered. He'll have to win South Jersey, where Sweeney would have had some sway.

Kean, Ciattarelli, Bramnick, or Guadagno could beat Murphy if they distance themselves from Chris Christie's gubernatorial reign. Kyrillos, maybe. I rate this election as Likely D.


http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/10/sweeney_says_he_wont_run_for_nj_governor.html#incart_most_shared-politics

[Suburbia]

If the Democratic primary is Murphy vs. Ray Lesniak vs. some other Democrat, then turnout in June 2017 will be pretty low. Black and Latino turnout will be low.

[Suburbia]

Murphy got the endorsement of Trenton mayor Eric Jackson and he may get the endorsement of Newark mayor Ras Baraka soon. Some people are wondering, why is a former Goldman Sachs CEO consolidating the N.J. Democratic Party?

http://www.nj.com/mercer/index.ssf/2016/10/trenton_mayor_to_endorse_phil_murphy_for_nj_govern.html

[Suburbia]

I rate this Likely D, too, for now. Fulop probably wins by five to eight percent, but someone unexpected like Christine Todd Whitman or Don Guardian could narrow it far more or even win.

Fulop dropped out last week, Christie Todd Whitman literally hasn't done anything in state politics for 15 years, and Don Guardian has no statewide recognition and wouldn't look good for ditching Atlantic City. A Republican isn't winning this race barring some major scandal for Murphy (though considering this is New Jersey, maybe even with one...).

She could run for Senate in 2018 against Menendez. Frankly, I think the NJ GOP has a large bench to run against Menendez.

[Suburbia]

I really want Shavonda Sumter as governor personally, but Phil Murphy looks like he'd be hard to take down in a primary. Phil Murphy seems like Jon Corzine 2.0.

Sumter is Murphy's leading choice for Lt. Governor, apparently.

True. She fits the bill. He's a wealthy Monmouth County Democrat, she is a Passaic County Democrat. African American. Woman. I don't think Murphy could pick another white male.

[Suburbia]

Could Phil Murphy carry his own town, Middletown, and his own county, Monmouth in the election?

[Suburbia]

http://www.northjersey.com/news/murphy-says-he-supports-marijuana-legalization-in-new-jersey-1.1673213 - Murphy comes out as pro-marijuana. He must be anticipating a green wave this November.

Wow. If Christie had an opportunity at a third term, he may have slammed Murphy on this. Murphy is trying to appeal to the youth vote who may stay home and say "Governor's race? Too boring".

[Suburbia]

Another Republican who could make a run for governor is Rich Bagger, former Christie chief of staff.

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2011/12/gov_christies_chief_of_staff_r.html

[Suburbia]

Another Republican who could make a run for governor is Rich Bagger, former Christie chief of staff.

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2011/12/gov_christies_chief_of_staff_r.html

That is simultaneously the best and worst name ever

Yea. Bagger is a good man. He's from Westfield, N.J., a Republican-friendly suburb. He could run against Menendez as well.

[Suburbia]

New developments:

Assemblyman John Wisniewski is running for N.J. governor in 2017. (He's my assemblyman). He is more liberal than Phil Murphy, and could make it competitive.

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/11/bridgegate_crusader_wisniewski_announces_2017_run.html

http://www.newsworks.org/index.php/local/new-jersey-spotlight/99434-essay-how-the-2017-nj-democratic-gubernatorial-nomination-looks-right-now

Also New Jersey resident and comedian Joe Piscopo may be running for governor. He has high name ID, he could potentially win a NJ GOP primary.

http://observer.com/2016/11/piscopo-reaching-out-to-county-party-gop-chairs-concerning-2017-guv-run/

[Suburbia]

Does any resident New Jersey residents know the views of Joe Piscopo?

As a NJ resident, not so much. I wonder if he is doing it because of the attention.

[Suburbia]

Assembly Republican Leader Jon Bramnick will not run for N.J. governor this year in 2017. He probably sees the writing on the wall that he can't win the governorship. He may run for Governor in 2021 or 2025, or maybe Senate in 2018 or 2020.

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/01/bramnick_says_hes_not_running_for_nj_governor.html

[Suburbia]

Yes, Guadagno is running for Governor in 2017. She will most likely lose this year, but she could come back in 2021 if Murphy screws up, or she could run for Senate in 2018 or 2020. If Booker runs for president in 2020, Guadagno may be the GOP Senate frontrunner in N.J., next to Bramnick, Jay Webber, or Tom Kean, Jr.