2017: NJ Gubernatorial/legislative elections

[Virginiá]

He could beat Menendez or Torricelli convincingly in 2018. Just because it is a Trump/Pence midterm in 2018, doesn't mean that Democrats are going to do well. Kean, Webber, or Rich Bagger could beat Menendez/Torricelli in 2018.

No, but the chances Republicans do well are exceedingly small. Midterms are almost always hard on the president's party, and Trump is the exact kind of person to stir up a backlash - particularly considering the potential fallout from the GOP agenda he plans to sign off on.

Anyway, even without that, Governor Krispy hasn't really helped the GOP brand in New Jersey, either. Menendez does worry me, and I wish he'd just go away, but I still think Republicans need a lot going for them to have a shot there and I doubt Trump is going to create those conditions.

[Virginiá]

However, if in 2019, a Gov. Murphy is unpopular, the GOP could pick up one of the chambers for the first time since 2001.

Why? What about 2019 and NJ suggests that will happen? I'd say until verifiable trends or other evidence suggest so, I doubt NJ Democrats are losing any chambers in the Trump era.

[Virginiá]

One thing I've found to be true about committed Bernie supporters - they always think everything is someone else's fault. If he lost a state it was rigged, or his team didn't work hard enough. It was never as simple as "the people preferred Hillary."

That's part of the problem with such highly charged partisan affairs, but particularly with one whose opposition is a woman widely viewed (fairly or not) as corrupt and untrustworthy. Suddenly all those arguments that she "rigged" it become credible. And it was made so much worse by the DNC-related stuff. It gave people the perfect excuse to use whenever Bernie lost, and of course it'd be thrown around generously.

[Virginiá]

It is the off-year election that does it - I've never seen the reasoning behind it.

fwiw, off-off-year turnout in Virginia's gubernatorial elections tends to rival midterm turnout. For instance, 2013 had even higher turnout than VA's 2014 elections. The election laws regarding voter access are actual pretty similar for NJ and VA, so for NJ, it is either a local culture of low turnout, relatively non-competitive elections, or both.

I'd also note that if/once Democrats unify the NJ state government next year, I'd fully expect a large election reform package to fly through the legislature. They were already pushing hard under Christie with some substantial changes, but obviously that didn't take. After those get implemented, I could easily see turnout getting a boost in future NJ elections.

[Virginiá]

man there is absolutely no enthusiasm in this race

It's sad. When you have a governor who closed a lane as revenge because the town's mayor didn't endorse your 2013 reelection, you run for president in 2016 after low approval ratings, N.J. voters get turned off.

It's sad.

None of the frontrunners are particularly energizing, and because of NJ's partisan leanings and the national + local political environment, the next Governor is pretty much decided in the Democratic primary, barring any major unforeseen circumstances.

So it is a shame, but not surprising either.

[Virginiá]

I'm afraid that a higher minimum wage will make it harder for teenagers to get jobs and I'm afraid that Murphy will raise the smoking age and school leaving age, but I want marijuana legalized.

Is this actually looking likely in NJ, or is it just another case of a small band of lawmakers getting together to push a doomed effort to legalize? Given NJ's budget issues, I'd like to think there is a future for reform there.

[Virginiá]

This is about the Assembly elections, but I will put it here regardless, since it makes more sense just to have a consolidated NJ 2017 elections thread anyway:

https://patch.com/new-jersey/newmilford-nj/republican-38th-district-candidate-withdraws-race-switches-parties

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Kind of funny because as I recall, Republicans also almost lost a challenger in this district in 2015 as well, and the guy (Anthony Cappola), who wrote a pretty offensive book, stayed in and lost. Not that this particular district is all that competitive anyway. It hasn't been represented by a Republican in any capacity for over a decade.

[Virginiá]

RNC won’t back NJ gubernatorial candidate over criticism of Trump: report

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/342730-rnc-wont-back-new-jersey-governor-candidate-over-loyalty-report

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Oh well. I suppose it doesn't matter, since she really does not have much of a chance at winning anyway. In fact, it's quite possible that Murphy's consistently monstrous lead factored into them staying out of the race.

[Virginiá]

RNC is run by idiots. I talk about how I don't like the Tea Party not endorsing Republicans but now the f***ing party isn't?!?

Occasionally personal rivalries overwhelm the prevailing desire to win. Didn't Jolly's (R-FL) shenanigans get him (sort of) cut off in 2016?

Either way, I would expect these types of slights to increase under Trump, especially if he pays more attention to next year's election. Part of the reason his administration has so many unfilled positions is because he refuses to pick anyone who sad anything bad about him during the election. Now that he has control of the party, he can extend his grudges even further.

[Virginiá]

Man, she's permanently tied to Christie. Her career is over. We're watching her march to the Elysian Fields.

I actually kind of feel bad for her. Granted, this born out of ignorance of her political history, but I don't think any politician should deserve to have their career substantially hurt or possibly even ruined just because they served alongside such a hated politician. I'd rather she have a shot to succeed or strike out on her own.

Then again, never say never. There is no guarantee Christie's stench sticks to her. If she is savvy enough, she can find a way back, if that is what she wants.

[Virginiá]

I haven't been following NJ much at all, but this is from DK:

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So Democrats will have comfortable supermajorities? Seems like pretty big gains!