2017: NJ Gubernatorial/legislative elections

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I'm a registered NJ Democrat who reliably votes in statewide primaries so I'm often contacted frequently by gubernatorial and Senate campaigns. With the primary three weeks away I have only been directly contacted so far by Johnson's campaign, and his campaign has contacted me three times as of this writing. I'm not involved with any of the campaigns but it seems to me like his ground game is the strongest. Conversely, Phil Murphy's TV presence has been the strongest, which is incredibly important in NJ politics. I suspect if the race tightens it will be between those two. I have not yet decided for whom I will vote.

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My guess, by the way, is that Johnson is gonna announce a primary challenge to Menendez after all this is over. This primary challenge will get a lot more media coverage than the gubernatorial primary, in part because Menendez is such a tarred candidate but also because Johnson is the perfect foil against him, as his large platform plank was ethics reform and Johnson has proven himself a capable fundraiser (being black doesn't hurt as well).

I suppose that's possible-- the ethics angle would be a perfect contrast. My hope is that Rush Holt comes out of retirement to primary Menendez, or Pallone, but I would certainly support Johnson if it came down to him or Bobby.

Holt would be the perfect candidate for the Dems to nominate in a Trump midterm.

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Stockton has Murphy and Guadagno leading the primaries, with Johnson and Ciatarelli hitting double digits with <2 weeks to go.

https://stockton.edu/hughes-center/polling/documents/2017-0525-stockton-gubernatorial-polls.pdf

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I imagine the final Dem spread will be something along the lines of
Murphy 58
Johnson 20
Wiz 12
Lesniak 8
Others 2

GOP
Guadagno 53
Ciattarelli 40
Others 7

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Financially a smart move - winning the Dem primary was always going to be harder for him than the GE.

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I can say with confidence that Ciattarelli's campaign is in overdrive. Guadagno has been out of the state to attend her father's funeral, which sadly could cost her votes due to lack of campaign appearances. GOP side will be close.

Updated predix:

Dem:
Murphy - 45
Johnson - 29
Wiz - 20
Lesniak - 5
Other - 1

GOP:
Guadagno - 52
Ciatarelli - 46
Other - 2

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Ciattarelli I believe is going to transition after this election into a challenge to Menendez. Even if he wins the GOP governor nom, Christie has likely put the race out of reach. Menendez would be a far more winnable race, especially with Ciattarelli's record of winning in a Dem district.

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Not sure Ciattarelli could make it 51-46, especially with Murphy already leading Guadagno by >20 points in the most recent polls. The GOP brand in NJ is incredibly damaged to the point that I'm not even sure Abraham Lincoln could win this election.

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With a little more than 24 hours until polls close, I have had:
-2 canvassers for Johnson at my door today, separated by only about 2 hours
-1 canvasser for Wisniewski
-1 phone call for Murphy

Additionally, I went out food shopping and when I returned a hangtag for Murphy and the county Democratic line was on my doorknob.

I still haven't decided (leaning towards Johnson at the moment) and I'm still predicting a Murphy win but I have to hand it to each campaign for really giving this their all.

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With a little more than 24 hours until polls close, I have had:
-2 canvassers for Johnson at my door today, separated by only about 2 hours
-1 canvasser for Wisniewski
-1 phone call for Murphy

Additionally, I went out food shopping and when I returned a hangtag for Murphy and the county Democratic line was on my doorknob.

I still haven't decided (leaning towards Johnson at the moment) and I'm still predicting a Murphy win but I have to hand it to each campaign for really giving this their all.

Curious, can I ask what county you're in? Most people that I've talked to (I'm in Bergen County) say they've been flooded with Murphy literature the past few weeks.

I'm in Middlesex, and have also gotten a handful of Murphy literature since mid-April.

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I voted for Jim Johnson at 9:30 AM this morning. I was voter #4 in my precinct. It hadn't started raining yet.

Turnout is going to be embarrassingly low.

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It is the off-year election that does it - I've never seen the reasoning behind it.

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The Atlantic is using Decision Desk HQ's numbers. DD is the only entity that has called either race so far, though they are probably correct.

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Ciattarelli is leading right now in Middlesex, an white ethnic stronghold.

The Asian vote has significant power here in Middlesex.

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Murphy has sent out a victory email and will be making a speech tonight.

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NYT has now called the GOP side for Guadagno.

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Interestingly enough, between Murphy and Guadagno I am leaning towards Guadagno.

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With all of their precincts reporting, Wisniewski carries Salem County by only 3 (!) votes.

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Just put a GCS poll of this race in the field. Will report results when I have them.

My analysis of this race going forward:

-Guadagno's pro-choice and strongly anti-gas tax positions will keep her competitive in Somerset and Middlesex counties and will help her hold Monmouth, and her rebuking of Trump will help her stay above water in Morris County, though I anticipate Morris will be closer than ever before.

-Guadagno's support of school choice and strong anti-sanctuary cities position - in addition to general disapproval of Christie/GOP in general - will give Murphy the opportunity to run up potentially historic margins in Camden, Essex and Hudson counties that Guadagno likely won't be able to overcome.

-George Norcross, who essentially runs the state of NJ, supports Murphy but was very clearly intent on running Steve Sweeney before Murphy boxed him out of the primary. Norcross will still deliver the South Jersey vote for Murphy, but Norcross is not used to not getting what he wants. If the margins are smaller than average it could represent remaining animosity that could foreshadow Trenton gridlock between Murphy allies and Norcross allies.

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My GCS poll completed the other night (took a very long time to complete for some reason). I'm having trouble exporting the results but nothing shocking: Murphy winning nearly 2 to 1, leading every demographic. He has huge leads in Newark/Camden and is only narrowly trailing in the shore points.