2017: NJ Gubernatorial/legislative elections

[pikachu]

Goldman Sachs exec vs Steve Sweeney. Thanks NJ Democratic Party for reminding me why I dislike you so much,

[pikachu]

It would be wonderful if Wisniewski actually won. We need more progressive leaders on the national scale, especially since Warren and Sanders are both up there in age.

Murphy looks to have the support of the important North Jersey parties, while Sweeney will have the Norcross machine behind him, so it's not going to happen. Though he might not be on the bad side of the Norcrosses, which could help...

[pikachu]

Murphy's the frontrunner, and he might've just locked the entire thing up. He has the endorsements of pretty much of all of the important North Jersey counties, Ras Baraka (mayor of Newark), Brian Stack (important in Hudson County), and Frank Pallone.

Can someone explain to me how someone with Fulop's charisma and resume can't get a coalition to coalesce behind him but someone like Murphy, a rich Goldman Sachs executive who, as a result of wealth, held lots of party posts and eventually a diplomatic role as ambassador to Germany, is considered a serious candidate?

I feel like in NY at least that resume would not fly...

NJ's politics are patronage-based, and Murphy starting working the North Jersey party circuit much earlier than Fulop did. Also, this being New Jersey, there were rumors that Fulop was involved in some random shady stuff. Still, if/when Menendez goes, I'd guess that Fulop would be a top contender for his seat if he wants it.

[pikachu]

https://www.google.com/amp/www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20161007_Sweeney_will_not_run_for_governor.html%3famphtml=y - Sweeney indeed not running next year!

It's really amazing what Murphy has managed to pull off. Fulop and Sweeney (among many others) have been plotting for this race for years now, and had the patronage of some of the most important men in the state (especially Sweeney), but Murphy's pretty much completely upended this. Even though I'm really ambivalent on his run, this is some pretty impressive maneuvering.

[pikachu]

Kean, Ciattarelli, Bramnick, or Guadagno could beat Murphy if they distance themselves from Chris Christie's gubernatorial reign. Kyrillos, maybe. I rate this election as Likely D.

Hell no. All of those people you mentioned do have a solid chance of defeating Murphy in 2021, though, as he's inevitably going to have an approval rating in the 30s. His tenure will look a lot like Corzine's IMO.

Let's wait until his term to bury him None of those candidates are as good as Christie 09, New Jersey is hostile to Republicans anyway (and it'll get worse for them before it gets better), and we don't know what the political climate will be in 2021. While the Corzine comparison is tempting, it's important to remember that the economy was completely in the shi**er in November 09, and he still kept it close. He'll also be an incumbent in a safe D state, and those are tough to take out.

[pikachu]

I rate this Likely D, too, for now. Fulop probably wins by five to eight percent, but someone unexpected like Christine Todd Whitman or Don Guardian could narrow it far more or even win.

Fulop dropped out last week, Christie Todd Whitman literally hasn't done anything in state politics for 15 years, and Don Guardian has no statewide recognition and wouldn't look good for ditching Atlantic City. A Republican isn't winning this race barring some major scandal for Murphy (though considering this is New Jersey, maybe even with one...).

[pikachu]

Murphy will win. All of the state establishment wants Murphy, and Wisniewski likely doesn't have the firepower to make a good insurgent run; it doesn't even look like Wisniewski will win the endorsement of the Middlesex party (his home county). Progressives' best chance here would be to get a Rush Holt type endorsed by Sanders, and take advantage of Murphy's current anonymity.

[pikachu]

Hope Kean runs.  Guadogno is DOA, given her ties to Christie.  But Kean is moderate enough that he could definitely win it, and he has less Christie baggage.

The GOP is going to lose this race because Christie's beyond unpopular, and Kean, much like every other Republican in the state, isn't well-known enough to be seen as distinct from Christie.

I think this race is gonna heat up quite a bit, fwiw. Wouldn't discount the possibility of a Sanders endorsement at all.

A Sanders endorsement for Wisniewski would be an interesting test to see how strong the Sanders brand is. Like it's been said a lot on this thread, the NJ Democratic establishment is extremely strong, and it would be a big victory for the Sanders wing if they could somehow pull it off.

[pikachu]

Hope Kean runs.  Guadogno is DOA, given her ties to Christie.  But Kean is moderate enough that he could definitely win it, and he has less Christie baggage.

The GOP is going to lose this race because Christie's beyond unpopular, and Kean, much like every other Republican in the state, isn't well-known enough to be seen as distinct from Christie.

Maybe so, but Kean is moderate enough to win over suburbanites.  Don't write the GOP off yet. 

The issue here isn't whether the GOP is going to nominate a hardcore conservative or not - they won't. The issue is whether the Republicans can escape the pull of Christie, whose unpopularity comes from several ideological and nonideological reasons. Kean is not a big enough name to escape Christie's pull. No NJ Republican is.

[pikachu]

This really speaks to how pathetic the Democratic performance downballot was during the Obama era, but it's likely that New Jersey will become the second largest state under total Democratic control. National progressives could be missing out on a good opportunity here if they're not going to even try in the primary.

[pikachu]

What are the downballot expectations this fall in New Jersey?

I'm not expecting any major changes since the map's essentially an incumbent protection gerrymander. Just to give an idea of how entrenched it is, since 2004 the state senate's composition has only shifted by two seats from a 22-18 D to 24-16 D. The Assembly was a similar situation, though Democrats broke through in 2015 to almost reach a 2/3 majority.

[pikachu]

It's also worth remembering that the NJ legislature is extremely inelastic because it's an incumbent protection plan.

[pikachu]

It is the off-year election that does it - I've never seen the reasoning behind it.

Media desert. More people read the NY Times or the Philadelphia Inquirer than read the Star Ledger -- which means that more people will know who Bill de Blasio is than who, say, Ras Baraka is.

Is it really that bad though? I always had the impression nj.com and 101.5 had a solid following. I feel like the off-year election + seemingly uncompetitive primary are bigger issues.

[pikachu]

Was a little bored, so I made some maps of the primary.

Top row has the Democrats, with Murphy in blue, Wiz in green, and Johnson in purple, with the last map being the second-place finisher in each county. Bottom row has the Republicans, with Guadagno in red and Ciattarelli in yellow. Maps could be better quality if I was less lazy, but whatever.

[pikachu]

The election looks like what you would've expected a good election for Democrats to look like during the Bush era. Not a bad thing at all, especially since the legislative majorities are larger than they were in the 2000s. Expecting a margin of 20+ was a bit much, especially considering that would've been larger than 2008/2012, but it's a larger one than 2005/2006, so there's reason to feel good imo.

[pikachu]

Idk what people were expecting. NJ is a not a super-elastic state, and all things considered, this was a pretty good performance. The margin was larger than in 2005 Gov and 2006 Senate, and even though it's smaller than 2008/2012, 2008 is probably going to be the best set of circumstance Dems will have for a long time and 2012 was right after a massive hurricane. The majorities in the legislature also are the highest for Dems since the '70s. Not at all unrealistic to think that Democrats can still pick up 2, 3, and 7 next year.