which is more likely to go Republican first?

[patrick1]

Nassau is not a liberal bastion at all.  The county still elects conservative judges and state senators. Further, Suozzi is not liked by a good proportion of people.

Whuile having the Republican label many of those State Senators & Judges that get elected are quite Moderate.  As far as Suozzi not being well liked?  Where exactly are you getting that from??  Suozzi is going to win re-election in a landslide, the talk is basically about whatever the GOP puts up against him is nothing other than a sacrafical lamb

Granted a Repub in Nassau is usually quite different than one from outisde of the NE, but there is also a large proportion of people who hate the democratic party.  As for Suozz, even many democrats are  offended at his use of his office as a political springboard.  Barring a  gigantic mistake, Suozzi will win. However (imo), that is due more to the massive mismanagment of the previous county Repubs than any change in voter attitudes.

[patrick1]

Another reason is Incumbeny factor.  In many of the smaller type positions such as State Senators & Judges the Incumbency factor tends to be very strong.  Once you see more people in these seats retiring you will see more Dems fill the seats, along the lines of what has happened to the Nassau County Legislature which now is slightly Dem, but use to be very heavily Republican.

The reverse happened in Long Beach.  It was dominated by the Dems for 80 years but changed because of the corruption and ineffiency of the D party.  However, it was a moderate, cross party change.  I think people are starting to get tired of do nothing incumbents and rebel against that. 

I am not really interested in local politics and hate Newsday- so I could be very wrong.

[Smash255]

Nassau is not a liberal bastion at all.  The county still elects conservative judges and state senators. Further, Suozzi is not liked by a good proportion of people.

Whuile having the Republican label many of those State Senators & Judges that get elected are quite Moderate.  As far as Suozzi not being well liked?  Where exactly are you getting that from??  Suozzi is going to win re-election in a landslide, the talk is basically about whatever the GOP puts up against him is nothing other than a sacrafical lamb

Granted a Repub in Nassau is usually quite different than one from outisde of the NE, but there is also a large proportion of people who hate the democratic party.  As for Suozz, even many democrats are  offended at his use of his office as a political springboard.  Barring a  gigantic mistake, Suozzi will win. However (imo), that is due more to the massive mismanagment of the previous county Repubs than any change in voter attitudes.

The Gulotta diaster is a big reason why he won the open seat race against Bent in 2001 by such a massive margin for an open seat race, but I think his record speaks for itself, when you look t where the county was finacially four years gao compared to where it is now.  I don't think the GOP argument about him using the county executive seat as a spongeboard is going to have much impact.  In the end its going to look like they are just arguing about that because theyy can't pick apart his record.  I will be very suprised if Suozzi's margin this year isn't in the same range of his 2-1 victory last time around.  He might even improve on that. 

[Smash255]

Another reason is Incumbeny factor.  In many of the smaller type positions such as State Senators & Judges the Incumbency factor tends to be very strong.  Once you see more people in these seats retiring you will see more Dems fill the seats, along the lines of what has happened to the Nassau County Legislature which now is slightly Dem, but use to be very heavily Republican.

The reverse happened in Long Beach.  It was dominated by the Dems for 80 years but changed because of the corruption and ineffiency of the D party.  However, it was a moderate, cross party change.  I think people are starting to get tired of do nothing incumbents and rebel against that. 

Basically the exact opposite is going on out in Suffolk in Brookhaven.  Very safe Republican machine for a long long time, has numerous problems with scandals since the late 90's now really catching up to them.  LaValle isn't running for re-election, and it looks like it could very well be in Dems hands come election time

[patrick1]

There are too many rabid Republicans in Nassau for Suozzi to win by anything more than he did.  I know it affects me more than national policsts but I've never really followed local politics and am very deficient in my knowledge.  From basic evidence I know that there is at least a third of the population who would never vote for a Democrat--the reverse is also true.

[Smash255]

There are too many rabid Republicans in Nassau for Suozzi to win by anything more than he did.  I know it affects me more than national policsts but I've never really followed local politics and am very deficient in my knowledge.  From basic evidence I know that there is at least a third of the population who would never vote for a Democrat--the reverse is also true.

Hard to say.  Right now I think their are MANY more Republicans who would cross party lines & vote Democrat than Democrats voting Republican.  Their is still actually a regristration edge for Republicans (but that gap is closing very fast).  The Independents have also shifted to voting more Democratic.  The change started on thhe Nationall level in the early 90's, but has started up on the local level over the past few years.  Kind of similar to the exact opposite of states in the south,

[patrick1]

The Democrats have a lot of help with a good stronghold of liberal Jewish people and assorted minorities.  The Republicans have a lot of help with the yuppie commuting crowd.  I find it balances itself out.  The fignt is over the middle moderate third. 

[Smash255]

The Democrats have a lot of help with a good stronghold of liberal Jewish people and assorted minorities.  The Republicans have a lot of help with the yuppie commuting crowd.  I find it balances itself out.  The fignt is over the middle moderate third. 

The younger white crowd (18-34) is overwelmingly liberal, more liberal than that crowd was during the 70's & 80's.   Also that yuppie commuting crowd is not nearly as Republican as they use to be (a change which started to happen in the early to mid 90's).  The moderate crowd is where also their was alot of change.  They are the crowd that once voted heavily Republican, but the social conservative swing of the Party on the National level changed them there & the brakdown of the Republican machine on the local level changed them there.   The same changes have occured in other Suburban areas in the region, the Philly burbs for example, the NOVA burbs of D.C (especially Fairfax).  The trend has been a Democratic shift on the Natl level, followed by a breakdown of the GOP machie Politics on the local level which has led to a Democratic Shift on the local level as well.  These areas (Nassau included) have always had a liberal contigency, a conservative contigency & a moderate contigency.  What has happened especially in Nassau is that the liberal contigency has gotten larger (& base has expanded from mostly minorities & Jews to having a much larger younger white crowd) the Cnservative Contigency has gotten smaller & the Moderate Contigency has shifted from the Republicans to the Democrats

[patrick1]

The Democrats have a lot of help with a good stronghold of liberal Jewish people and assorted minorities.  The Republicans have a lot of help with the yuppie commuting crowd.  I find it balances itself out.  The fignt is over the middle moderate third. 

The younger white crowd (18-34) is overwelmingly liberal, more liberal than that crowd was during the 70's & 80's.   Also that yuppie commuting crowd is not nearly as Republican as they use to be (a change which started to happen in the early to mid 90's).  The moderate crowd is where also their was alot of change.  They are the crowd that once voted heavily Republican, but the social conservative swing of the Party on the National level changed them there & the brakdown of the Republican machine on the local level changed them there.   The same changes have occured in other Suburban areas in the region, the Philly burbs for example, the NOVA burbs of D.C (especially Fairfax).  The trend has been a Democratic shift on the Natl level, followed by a breakdown of the GOP machie Politics on the local level which has led to a Democratic Shift on the local level as well.  These areas (Nassau included) have always had a liberal contigency, a conservative contigency & a moderate contigency.  What has happened especially in Nassau is that the liberal contigency has gotten larger (& base has expanded from mostly minorities & Jews to having a much larger younger white crowd) the Cnservative Contigency has gotten smaller & the Moderate Contigency has shifted from the Republicans to the Democrats

That sounds plausible. However, were I a democrat, I would not rest on my laurels.  There are still many conservatives who intend to stay that way.

[Smash255]

The Democrats have a lot of help with a good stronghold of liberal Jewish people and assorted minorities.  The Republicans have a lot of help with the yuppie commuting crowd.  I find it balances itself out.  The fignt is over the middle moderate third. 

The younger white crowd (18-34) is overwelmingly liberal, more liberal than that crowd was during the 70's & 80's.   Also that yuppie commuting crowd is not nearly as Republican as they use to be (a change which started to happen in the early to mid 90's).  The moderate crowd is where also their was alot of change.  They are the crowd that once voted heavily Republican, but the social conservative swing of the Party on the National level changed them there & the brakdown of the Republican machine on the local level changed them there.   The same changes have occured in other Suburban areas in the region, the Philly burbs for example, the NOVA burbs of D.C (especially Fairfax).  The trend has been a Democratic shift on the Natl level, followed by a breakdown of the GOP machie Politics on the local level which has led to a Democratic Shift on the local level as well.  These areas (Nassau included) have always had a liberal contigency, a conservative contigency & a moderate contigency.  What has happened especially in Nassau is that the liberal contigency has gotten larger (& base has expanded from mostly minorities & Jews to having a much larger younger white crowd) the Cnservative Contigency has gotten smaller & the Moderate Contigency has shifted from the Republicans to the Democrats

That sounds plausible. However, were I a democrat, I would not rest on my laurels.  There are still many conservatives who intend to stay that way.

Granted, but compared to the late 80's, the amount of conservatives have dropped quite a bit, the liberals have gained quite a bit & the moderates have gone from favoring the GOP to the Dems.  When you look at how much the county has changed politically in the last 15 years its rather amazing & its a shift which looks like will continue

[patrick1]

I tend to roll in the Catholic and bar circles so my political litmus is skewed.  My best friend is a dem though.  Most of these politicians are outright crooks so I try not to take it too seriously.

[AkSaber]

Only an act of God can make D.C. vote GOP. -_-

[TeePee4Prez]

I tend to roll in the Catholic and bar circles so my political litmus is skewed.  My best friend is a dem though.  Most of these politicians are outright crooks so I try not to take it too seriously.

I think in our circles we tend to have generally moderate Democrats to moderate Republicans.  One of my best friends is a pro-life Specter Republican.  I do tend to be on the left flank of the poltical litmus test compared to my non-YDA friends, but I don't stick out like a sore thumb either.  I'm sure you will find this funny-  Compared to people I know from the Philly suburbs or Center City, even MENTIONING the downfalls of Section 8 or thinking Mumia is guilty automatically brands you a racist conservative.  You obviously know my opinion on them by now and I have been dimed out by ultra-liberals as well as conservatives. 

My pick is LI by the way. 

[Gustaf]

Erc, if the Republicans dropped their hars social conservatism they would begin to slip in states like Arkansas, West Virginia and Missouri pretty fast too.

[Joe Republic]

For the reasons already given, Long Island obviously goes GOP first.

DC, Manhattan Island and San Francisco would have been a better comparison.