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  PPP PA/CT/RI close on Democratic side, large Trump leads
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Author Topic: PPP PA/CT/RI close on Democratic side, large Trump leads  (Read 7323 times)
Comrade Funk
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« Reply #25 on: April 25, 2016, 09:44:34 am »

I hope my state and the other great states of the Northeast give Lyin' Teddy Canuck a big  you by giving the Donald a comfortable victory.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #26 on: April 25, 2016, 10:13:16 am »

Wow, maybe Trump can afford to lose Indiana. Also, Sanders might have a chance in CT and RI, though I'm still hesitant to buy these numbers.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #27 on: April 25, 2016, 10:26:55 am »

How many delegates would Trump secure tomorrow if those are the results?
I have him somewhere between 95 and 106 of the 118 pledged delegates.

If Trump breaks 60% in RI, he's in the 10-11 delegate range in the state depending on the breakdown. Cruz/Kasich will get 4-5 each in how the rules go.  If Trump ends up with 50%, we're looking at 9-10 range of the 19 total.

I gave Kasich/Cruz a 1-4 CDs in MD in my estimate as well.

DE is WTA. CT > 50% is WTA. PA is WTA for the 17 pledged.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #28 on: April 25, 2016, 10:30:41 am »

If PPP is about right, could Cruz be in danger of not clearing the 10% threshold for a delegate in the RI 1st congressional district?  I'm assuming that would be the district he'd do worse in.
Probably not. There are just 2 CDs. You'd think in a state that small, there won't be a ton of variance. RI-1 is D+15, RI-2 is D+8. If there is one he'd tank in it's RI-1. But unlikely. He'll either crash in both CDs or get the participation delegates.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #29 on: April 25, 2016, 11:04:21 am »


Bernie ought to thank Lincoln Chafee for this development!
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IceSpear
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« Reply #30 on: April 25, 2016, 11:24:11 am »

Remember back when PPP were paid Hillary shills? lol, good times.

First of all, 10 points is not close lmao. This RI poll looks a lot more realistic than the other one though.

If Trump wins by these kind of margins, will he bring the GOP to heel? They already seem to be slowly giving up on Cruz's zombie campaign. They don't seem to want to fall on their sword for him, which isn't unexpected considering they despise him as well.
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #31 on: April 25, 2016, 11:27:08 am »

Hillary stopped paying PPP at some point in February.

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sjkqw
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« Reply #32 on: April 25, 2016, 11:33:06 am »

Gosh, I love the northeast! So much! God bless this (part of the) country.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #33 on: April 25, 2016, 12:19:17 pm »

To get a second delegate in a CD, Trump either has to get above 67% or keep Cruz under 10%.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #34 on: April 25, 2016, 12:29:31 pm »
« Edited: April 25, 2016, 12:31:57 pm by Seriously? »

What are the %age cutoffs for additional delegates in RI?  What would Trump have to do to get the next statewide delegate over 50%+1?  What about in each CD?  Do we think Trump is stronger in Providence or in western RI?  I would tend to think Providence given NYC?
It's really ridiculously high. you basically need 66.7% for it to go 2/1 and 90% to take all 3. Or you need a candidate to fall under 10%.

Rubio would be proud of the participation trophies.
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Nathan
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« Reply #35 on: April 25, 2016, 05:32:57 pm »

It's just more room for Ted CRUZ to EXCEED EXPECTATIONS!
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Ljube
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« Reply #36 on: April 25, 2016, 06:29:02 pm »


And this will be official in Indiana.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #37 on: April 25, 2016, 09:10:38 pm »


Again, #NeverTrump is Republicans who refuse to vote for Trump in the general election.  It isn't toast unless/until Trump is elected president.
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Ljube
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« Reply #38 on: April 25, 2016, 11:13:35 pm »


Again, #NeverTrump is Republicans who refuse to vote for Trump in the general election.  It isn't toast unless/until Trump is elected president.


It is toast when Trump becomes the nominee, the same way PUMA was toast when Obama became the nominee.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #39 on: April 25, 2016, 11:21:48 pm »


Again, #NeverTrump is Republicans who refuse to vote for Trump in the general election.  It isn't toast unless/until Trump is elected president.


It is toast when Trump becomes the nominee, the same way PUMA was toast when Obama became the nominee.

Unlike with the PUMAs, there are way too many high profile Republicans (both politicians and conservative media types) who've thrown in their lot with #NeverTrump for all of them to backtrack now.  There is no going back.

For that matter, I think #NeverTrump will grow among Republicans in Congress after Trump is nominated.  As of now, many of them have simply dodged the question as to whether they would endorse him if he's nominated.  But once he is nominated, it's no longer a hypothetical.  They'll have to choose.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #40 on: April 25, 2016, 11:22:55 pm »


Again, #NeverTrump is Republicans who refuse to vote for Trump in the general election.  It isn't toast unless/until Trump is elected president.


Yeah, I mean, I'm sure there are Republicans out there who won't vote for Trump, and I'd like to think it's a sizable chunk of the electorate, but I think most (including those in congress) are just going to hold their nose and vote for Trump. 90% of Republicans would vote for pile of toxic waste with an (R) next to its name.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #41 on: April 25, 2016, 11:26:31 pm »


Again, #NeverTrump is Republicans who refuse to vote for Trump in the general election.  It isn't toast unless/until Trump is elected president.


It is toast when Trump becomes the nominee, the same way PUMA was toast when Obama became the nominee.

Unlike with the PUMAs, there are way too many high profile Republicans (both politicians and conservative media types) who've thrown in their lot with #NeverTrump for all of them to backtrack now.  There is no going back.

For that matter, I think #NeverTrump will grow among Republicans in Congress after Trump is nominated.  As of now, many of them have simply dodged the question as to whether they would endorse him if he's nominated.  But once he is nominated, it's no longer a hypothetical.  They'll have to choose.


There's a chance some Republican senators not up for reelection might speak out against him, but I'm skeptical that many congressmen will, unless they live in a district that was hostile to Trump in the primary.  They wouldn't want to alienate his fans.
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Ljube
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« Reply #42 on: April 26, 2016, 10:11:16 pm »


Again, #NeverTrump is Republicans who refuse to vote for Trump in the general election.  It isn't toast unless/until Trump is elected president.


It is toast when Trump becomes the nominee, the same way PUMA was toast when Obama became the nominee.

Unlike with the PUMAs, there are way too many high profile Republicans (both politicians and conservative media types) who've thrown in their lot with #NeverTrump for all of them to backtrack now.  There is no going back.

For that matter, I think #NeverTrump will grow among Republicans in Congress after Trump is nominated.  As of now, many of them have simply dodged the question as to whether they would endorse him if he's nominated.  But once he is nominated, it's no longer a hypothetical.  They'll have to choose.


There you go again.

Sometimes it seems like you live on another planet.
Perhaps you are just playing with us, Trump supporters.

It's just not happening in the real world. Can you give an example of anything remotely similar to what you're saying happening anywhere in the world ever?
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #43 on: April 26, 2016, 10:11:39 pm »

Dang! Great poll!
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Gass3268
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« Reply #44 on: April 26, 2016, 10:13:49 pm »

Good work by PPP!
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BundouYMB
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« Reply #45 on: April 26, 2016, 10:17:33 pm »


QFT! PPP always does great work & it's always great to see them get some appreciation for it!
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #46 on: April 27, 2016, 12:42:52 am »

Good to see. It seems like they've recovered from some of their flops earlier in the cycle.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #47 on: April 27, 2016, 01:06:51 am »


Again, #NeverTrump is Republicans who refuse to vote for Trump in the general election.  It isn't toast unless/until Trump is elected president.


It is toast when Trump becomes the nominee, the same way PUMA was toast when Obama became the nominee.

Unlike with the PUMAs, there are way too many high profile Republicans (both politicians and conservative media types) who've thrown in their lot with #NeverTrump for all of them to backtrack now.  There is no going back.

For that matter, I think #NeverTrump will grow among Republicans in Congress after Trump is nominated.  As of now, many of them have simply dodged the question as to whether they would endorse him if he's nominated.  But once he is nominated, it's no longer a hypothetical.  They'll have to choose.


There you go again.

Sometimes it seems like you live on another planet.
Perhaps you are just playing with us, Trump supporters.

It's just not happening in the real world. Can you give an example of anything remotely similar to what you're saying happening anywhere in the world ever?


There's no modern era precedent for this many Republican politicians already saying that they won't support the nominee in November.  There's no precedent for this many of them refusing to endorse anyone, once a candidate is this far ahead in delegates.  They've had plenty of time to endorse Trump.  The fact that his endorsements among Republican elites so far are so few, given where he stands in the race for the nomination right now, suggests to me that plenty of them will still not endorse him after he's nominated.
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Vosem
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« Reply #48 on: April 27, 2016, 01:21:36 am »


Again, #NeverTrump is Republicans who refuse to vote for Trump in the general election.  It isn't toast unless/until Trump is elected president.


It is toast when Trump becomes the nominee, the same way PUMA was toast when Obama became the nominee.

Unlike with the PUMAs, there are way too many high profile Republicans (both politicians and conservative media types) who've thrown in their lot with #NeverTrump for all of them to backtrack now.  There is no going back.

For that matter, I think #NeverTrump will grow among Republicans in Congress after Trump is nominated.  As of now, many of them have simply dodged the question as to whether they would endorse him if he's nominated.  But once he is nominated, it's no longer a hypothetical.  They'll have to choose.


There you go again.

Sometimes it seems like you live on another planet.
Perhaps you are just playing with us, Trump supporters.

It's just not happening in the real world. Can you give an example of anything remotely similar to what you're saying happening anywhere in the world ever?


Absolutely. Michael Foot, a totally unacceptable leader, became leader of the Labour Party in the UK in 1980. In response, numerous Labour politicians left the party to form a new one. Many voters followed them and Foot led Labour to their worst result in 65 years -- in spite of consistently attracting the largest crowds and the most fervent supporters.

In America, George McGovern received the Democratic nomination and numerous Democrats (led by future President Jimmy Carter) fled for Nixon. Eight years earlier, Barry Goldwater received the Republican nomination and the same thing happened.

This happens all the time, Ljube. Trump supporters are not playing, but neither are Trump opponents, as you seem bizarrely convinced is the case.
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Desroko
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« Reply #49 on: April 27, 2016, 01:55:17 am »
« Edited: April 27, 2016, 01:56:49 am by Desroko »


Again, #NeverTrump is Republicans who refuse to vote for Trump in the general election.  It isn't toast unless/until Trump is elected president.


It is toast when Trump becomes the nominee, the same way PUMA was toast when Obama became the nominee.

Unlike with the PUMAs, there are way too many high profile Republicans (both politicians and conservative media types) who've thrown in their lot with #NeverTrump for all of them to backtrack now.  There is no going back.

For that matter, I think #NeverTrump will grow among Republicans in Congress after Trump is nominated.  As of now, many of them have simply dodged the question as to whether they would endorse him if he's nominated.  But once he is nominated, it's no longer a hypothetical.  They'll have to choose.


There you go again.

Sometimes it seems like you live on another planet.
Perhaps you are just playing with us, Trump supporters.

It's just not happening in the real world. Can you give an example of anything remotely similar to what you're saying happening anywhere in the world ever?


Absolutely. Michael Foot, a totally unacceptable leader, became leader of the Labour Party in the UK in 1980. In response, numerous Labour politicians left the party to form a new one. Many voters followed them and Foot led Labour to their worst result in 65 years -- in spite of consistently attracting the largest crowds and the most fervent supporters.

In America, George McGovern received the Democratic nomination and numerous Democrats (led by future President Jimmy Carter) fled for Nixon. Eight years earlier, Barry Goldwater received the Republican nomination and the same thing happened.

This happens all the time, Ljube. Trump supporters are not playing, but neither are Trump opponents, as you seem bizarrely convinced is the case.

A common thread among Trumpeters and Sandernistas is that all this is TOTALLY UNPRECEDENTED AND HISTORIC, when really it happens fairly regularly. People who can't be bothered to learn registration deadlines or delegate selection rules can't be expected to know who McGovern and Goldwater were.
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