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  2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  USAT/Suffolk National Poll: Clinton up 5, Trump up 16
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Author Topic: USAT/Suffolk National Poll: Clinton up 5, Trump up 16  (Read 414 times)
The Other Castro
Castro2020
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« on: April 25, 2016, 02:06:05 pm »

Clinton - 50%
Sanders - 45%

Trump - 45%
Cruz - 29%
Kasich - 17%

http://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/4_25_2016_marginals.pdf
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1 on: April 25, 2016, 09:19:13 pm »

Asked of the Republican primary voters:

“There has been discussion about the role and impact of delegates in the Republican nominaton process. If a candidate arrives at the national convention with a clear lead in delegates, but doesn’t have a majority, should he be chosen as the nominee, or should that be left up to the delegates at the convention?”

The candidate with a clear lead—even if not a majority—should be chosen 47%
It should be left up to the delegates 41%
undecided 13%
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Ronnie
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« Reply #2 on: April 25, 2016, 09:33:16 pm »

Asked of the Republican primary voters:

“There has been discussion about the role and impact of delegates in the Republican nominaton process. If a candidate arrives at the national convention with a clear lead in delegates, but doesn’t have a majority, should he be chosen as the nominee, or should that be left up to the delegates at the convention?”

The candidate with a clear lead—even if not a majority—should be chosen 47%
It should be left up to the delegates 41%
undecided 13%


Whoa, that's a really weak number for Trump.  Wasn't it around 60% before?  Looks like he might be losing the PR campaign in that regard.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #3 on: April 25, 2016, 09:44:43 pm »
« Edited: April 25, 2016, 09:49:01 pm by Mr. Morden »

Asked of the Republican primary voters:

“There has been discussion about the role and impact of delegates in the Republican nominaton process. If a candidate arrives at the national convention with a clear lead in delegates, but doesn’t have a majority, should he be chosen as the nominee, or should that be left up to the delegates at the convention?”

The candidate with a clear lead—even if not a majority—should be chosen 47%
It should be left up to the delegates 41%
undecided 13%


Whoa, that's a really weak number for Trump.  Wasn't it around 60% before?  Looks like he might be losing the PR campaign in that regard.

How people answer that question is highly dependent on the question wording, as we've seen in similar polls.  When you phrase the question so that it's about the delegates deliberating, people are more open to them picking someone who isn't the plurality vote winner.

EDIT: I talked about this phenomenon with respect to both the YouGov and NBC polling on this last week:

Interesting CA crosstab:

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CA is one of the few states where the majority of Republican primary voters would support a contested convention.

I just think the results on that issue are highly dependent on the question wording.  “Fight for delegates to decide the winner” sounds better than other ways you could phrase it.  Note that in the new NBC national poll, there’s a split on how people respond to the contested convention scenario depending on how you word the question:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/republican-voters-want-say-in-choosing-nominee-poll-finds-1460898000

62% say that the person with the most votes in the primaries should be the nominee, yet if you ask how people would feel about a candidate winning the nomination by “convincing delegates supporting other candidates” to back them, a majority say that would be acceptable.

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