AZ-Behavior Research Center: Clinton +7

[pbrower2a]

Just look at the recent polls of Utah. The difference between the electorates of Arizona and New Mexico are

(1) that New Mexico is more Hispanic, and
(2) Arizona has a huge Mormon population.

A key to conservative successes in Arizona is the Mormon vote. Mormons are typically the most enthusiastic supporters of conservative policies and candidates in the American West. But know well: this time Donald Trump has offended Mormon sensibilities through his prior business dealings. Gambling and booze, both distinctly non-Mormon. Ted Cruz does not do that, and he would get about as much support from Mormons as someone Republican neither Mormon nor from Arizona -- like George W. Bush. (Mitt Romney is a Mormon and John McCain is a Senator from Arizona. Cut Mormon support for a conservative politician by a quarter to a third, and the state suddenly becomes more amenable to a liberal.

With the Hispanic population, which in Arizona is heavily Mexican-American  and the second-largest group of Hispanics are people half Mexican and half Anglo, Donald Trump's call for mass deportation will hit hostile ears. Citizen or not, Mexican-Americans often recognize that someone that they know fairly well is an illegal alien. That could be their daughter's boyfriend.

There never has been much enmity between white Anglo populations and Mexican-Americans. The proposed deportations involve breaking up families, clearly an offense to many conservatives.

Donald Trump will cut the enthusiasm of Mormon conservatives and will get Mexican-Americans more active in the political process. Such is a double-whammy to the GOP in Arizona. Donald Trump could get Arizona to vote almost like New Mexico, which is now almost as Democratic as Massachusetts.

Note: Cruz does OK in Arizona.     

[pbrower2a]

I don't write off Kasich yet. I have use for his polling numbers.


Senator Bernie Sanders beats all of the GOP contenders by: 54% to 33%
over Trump, 48 % to 34% over Cruz and by 47% to 33% over Kasich.
Democrat Hillary Clinton also bests Trump by a narrower 42% to 35% but then loses in Arizona to Ted Cruz by 43% to 38% and trails John Kasich by 44% to 32%

[pbrower2a]

Note that in this poll, Kasich is doing insignificantly better than Cruz.

[pbrower2a]

Note that in this poll, Kasich is doing insignificantly better than Cruz.

Kasich 44
Clinton 32

Cruz 43
Clinton 38

So a 12-point margin is not significantly better than a 5-point margin? lol

He was right against Bernie, though.

I was looking at the "43" and "44", which I consider more significant. It is far easier to catch up to "44" (which is roughly the Democratic floor in Arizona) than to the "50" as she needs for winning the state.

[pbrower2a]

I don't see AZ going for Clinton in November, but anything's possible. If it's at all close, though, Trump's toast.

Something I may have said in 2008 around this time:

I don't see VA going for Obama in November, but anything's possible. If it's at all close, though, McCain is toast.

[pbrower2a]

But D+7 is consistent with a lack of enthusiasm of Mormons for Trump and a surge in voting by Mexican-Americans.

Count on this: Arizona will be interesting this year. This is far from the last poll of Arizona. Some of us saw signs of Arizona becoming a swing state in recent elections, most notably the weak performance of John McCain for a favorite son in the 2008 Presidential election.

It will be difficult for the Republican nominee (I assume Donald Trump) to win the Presidency without winning Arizona. If the Republicans lose Arizona they have also lost Colorado as well.