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  2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  Economist/YouGov nat:D: Clinton 47% Sanders 43%;R: Trump 49% Cruz 28% Kasich 19%
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Author Topic: Economist/YouGov nat:D: Clinton 47% Sanders 43%;R: Trump 49% Cruz 28% Kasich 19%  (Read 942 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: April 27, 2016, 08:32:53 pm »

Economist/YouGov national poll, conducted April 22-26:

https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/04/27/yougov-economist-poll-april-22-26-2016/

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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1 on: April 27, 2016, 08:36:30 pm »

fav/unfav % among primary voters of their own party:

Sanders 80/19% for +61%
Clinton 68/31% for +37%

Trump 63/37% for +26%
Kasich 53/38% for +15%
Cruz 53/46% for +7%
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Maxwell
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« Reply #2 on: April 27, 2016, 08:54:26 pm »

Where would Bernie be getting that close of a match-up?
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Ebsy
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« Reply #3 on: April 27, 2016, 09:00:26 pm »

Where would Bernie be getting that close of a match-up?
It's obvious that the national polls have been meaningless junk for quite some time.
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Volrath50
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« Reply #4 on: April 27, 2016, 09:09:17 pm »

Where would Bernie be getting that close of a match-up?
It's obvious that the national polls have been meaningless junk for quite some time.

I can also imagine a scenario where people who have already voted for Clinton might now be saying they would vote for Bernie, on the basis that, now that they can't affect the result, they may as well support the guy they really support, rather than who they think can be elected.

A bit farfetched, so I pretty much agree that national polls are junk. Especially this one showing Trump dropping and Cruz rising, which is contradicted by just about everything.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #5 on: April 27, 2016, 09:13:09 pm »

YouGov really should be embarrassed about publishing this trash. She's going to win the popular vote by double digits.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #6 on: April 27, 2016, 09:27:20 pm »

If the race were really tied then Clinton wouldn't have won Pennsylvania by 12% and Maryland by 30% last night. Total nonsense.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #7 on: April 28, 2016, 02:03:40 am »

Sorry, but no.
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King
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« Reply #8 on: April 28, 2016, 10:10:52 am »

Theory: more people are identifying as Democratic voters instead of Republican voters in these polls now that it's clear GOP is nuts and those are mostly going to Sanders.
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Holmes
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« Reply #9 on: April 28, 2016, 10:30:33 am »

Theory: more people are identifying as Democratic voters instead of Republican voters in these polls now that it's clear GOP is nuts and those are mostly going to Sanders.

I do think national polls are oversampling people who didn't vote or who are not Democratic primary voters.
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dspNY
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« Reply #10 on: April 28, 2016, 10:45:16 am »

75% of the country has voted and Clinton leads by 14 points. That is the real poll
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #11 on: April 28, 2016, 12:07:01 pm »

75% of the country has voted and Clinton leads by 14 points. That is the real poll
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dspNY
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« Reply #12 on: April 28, 2016, 12:15:24 pm »
« Edited: April 28, 2016, 12:20:31 pm by dspNY »

That being said, there is one possible bit of value in these late national polls: they correlate pretty closely to where California stands:

Pollster has a 50-44 Clinton national lead and a 49-42 Clinton lead in CA and the polling out of California so far has mirrored the national polling trend

California polls taken partially or completely in April have Clinton with leads of 2, 6, 6, 12 and 14 (an average lead of eight)

National polls taken partially or completely in April have Clinton with leads of 10, 4, 5, 10, 6, 3, 7, 2, 2, 6, 8, 8, 6, 1, 8, 9 and 1 with Sanders leading in two April surveys by 1
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #13 on: April 28, 2016, 12:16:59 pm »

There's a difference between preferring someone for the nomination and actually voting for them.
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