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  OR - Hoffman Research Group: Trump with double digit lead
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Author Topic: OR - Hoffman Research Group: Trump with double digit lead  (Read 1949 times)
Holmes
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« on: April 28, 2016, 02:36:29 pm »

Trump 43%
Cruz 26%
Kasich 17%

Trump 49% fav/40% unfav
Cruz 42% fav/37% unfav
Kasich 35% fav/25% unfav

Conducted April 26 - 27 among 555 Republican (likely?) voters, MoE +/- 4.2%.

http://www.opb.org/news/series/election-2016/donald-trump-poll-oregon-election/
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Icefire9
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« Reply #1 on: April 28, 2016, 02:39:41 pm »

ITS OVER!
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Holmes
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« Reply #2 on: April 28, 2016, 02:39:46 pm »

Nate Cohn's model has Trump winning Oregon now. Cruz abandoning the state probably rubbed them a bit the wrong way, and I sincerely doubt Carly plays well at all in Oregon. If Trump performs well in Oregon, he may have a chance in Montana.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #3 on: April 28, 2016, 02:53:43 pm »

Interesting.  If he's doing this well in OR, he's probably leading in Washington as well, in which case, he'll probably easily surpass 1,237.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #4 on: April 28, 2016, 03:04:55 pm »

This isn't good for Cruz but Oregon is proportional, so this won't produce a big delegate batch for Trump.
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Lief 🐋
Lief
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« Reply #5 on: April 28, 2016, 03:10:05 pm »

Wisconsin was the last state Lyin' Ted will win.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #6 on: April 28, 2016, 03:11:12 pm »

Wisconsin was the last state Lyin' Ted will win.

Nebraska should be pretty safe for Cruz.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #7 on: April 28, 2016, 03:16:25 pm »

Wisconsin was the last state Lyin' Ted will win.

Nebraska should be pretty safe for Cruz.

Yeah I would be shocked if he loses Nebraska and/or South Dakota.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #8 on: April 28, 2016, 03:18:00 pm »

Yup, you can add OR and WA to the Trump column. Another reason Indiana doesn't matter. It's possible Trump will win every state with a Democratic Governor (minus the caucus in Minnesota). Montana should be close, but I'm giving it to Trump as of now.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #9 on: April 28, 2016, 03:20:03 pm »

Wisconsin was the last state Lyin' Ted will win.

Nebraska should be pretty safe for Cruz.

Yeah I would be shocked if he loses Nebraska and/or South Dakota.

Montana on the other hand...

Open primary with lots of conservative democrats with a populist streak, that will have the choice between Sanders (who's toast) or Trump.
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For Trump everything, for immigrants the law
xingkerui
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« Reply #10 on: April 28, 2016, 03:31:39 pm »

One poll in OR is hardly evidence for us to be calling WA for Trump.
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #11 on: April 28, 2016, 03:32:09 pm »

Splitting the 14% undecided 5-5-4 (giving the 4 to Cruz since he's not focusing on the state):

TRUMP 48%
Cruz 30%
Kasich 22%

Using these rules:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/OR-R

28*(48/100) = 13.44 = 13 delegates for TRUMP
28*(30/100) = 8.4 = 8 delegates for Cruz
28*(22/100) = 6.16 = 6 delegates for Kasich

There's 1 leftover delegate, which goes to the candidate who came the closest to getting it, which is TRUMP. That gets him 14 delegates, which is 4 above the target I've set for him of 10 delegates.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/can-you-get-trump-to-1237/?ex_cid=story-twitter#IN:48,WV:23,OR:10,WA:15,CA:99,MT:27,NJ:51,NM:8
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #12 on: April 28, 2016, 06:01:19 pm »

I'd like to see a Democratic poll.
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Holmes
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« Reply #13 on: April 28, 2016, 07:54:33 pm »
« Edited: April 28, 2016, 08:00:46 pm by Holmes »

Doesn't WA have a 50% WTA trigger like CT?  Or is the trigger by district like in NY?

WA is a little dumb. There is a 20% threshold for statewide delegates and congressional district delegates. If a candidate (Kasich) does not reach the 20% threshold statewide, any delegates he would've normally gotten are unbound. Sort of like how it was in Louisiana when Rubio (and all other losers) didn't reach the threshold, the delegates weren't scattered among Cruz and Trump, they became unbound. So it's not like Cruz and Trump would get more statewide delegates if Kasich falls below 20%.

As for congressional district, they all have 3 delegates. Similar rules to how Rhode Island did it, only the threshold is 20% this time instead of 10%. And yes, the WTA threshold is 50%. So if a candidate gets 50%, they get all 3 delegates. If Kasich falls below 20%, and no one gets a majority then the split is 2-1 for the winner and runner up, respectively. If there is no majority and Kasich is over 20% in the district, the delegates split 1-1-1.

As for OR, there is no WTA threshold, all 28 delegates (statewide and district) are allocated proportionally based on the statewide vote, and the threshold is about 3.5% so everyone will pass it.
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bigedlb
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« Reply #14 on: April 28, 2016, 08:13:17 pm »

Trump 43%
Cruz 26%
Kasich 17%

Trump 49% fav/40% unfav
Cruz 42% fav/37% unfav
Kasich 35% fav/25% unfav

Conducted April 26 - 27 among 555 Republican (likely?) voters, MoE +/- 4.2%.

http://www.opb.org/news/series/election-2016/donald-trump-poll-oregon-election/
Oregon delegates straight proportional.  Divvy up undecideds gets you Trump 14 delegates, Crus 8 Kasich 6
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Seriously?
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« Reply #15 on: April 29, 2016, 12:04:12 am »

Trump 43%
Cruz 26%
Kasich 17%

Trump 49% fav/40% unfav
Cruz 42% fav/37% unfav
Kasich 35% fav/25% unfav

Conducted April 26 - 27 among 555 Republican (likely?) voters, MoE +/- 4.2%.

http://www.opb.org/news/series/election-2016/donald-trump-poll-oregon-election/

The fat lady is warming up. Cruz needs the Pacific West to deny Trump the nomination. You have to figure, if Trump is leading in CA and OR, WA and perhaps even NM and MT will follow, which will mean that Trump is above the delegate projections to 1237.

Yes, Oregon is proportional, but still....
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