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  2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  IN - ARG: Trump +9, Clinton +8
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Author Topic: IN - ARG: Trump +9, Clinton +8  (Read 2082 times)
Ronnie
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« on: April 29, 2016, 10:52:58 am »
« edited: April 29, 2016, 10:54:56 am by Ronnie »

Conducted April 27-28, MoE +/-5

GOP
Trump 41%
Cruz 32%
Kasich 21%

Dems
Clinton 51%
Sanders 43%

http://americanresearchgroup.com

RIP Trump?
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Holmes
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« Reply #1 on: April 29, 2016, 10:55:49 am »

They got the MD GOP primary right, so that was a thing.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
sjkqw
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« Reply #2 on: April 29, 2016, 10:58:19 am »

This is actually highly concerning. Yikes.
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swf541
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« Reply #3 on: April 29, 2016, 11:00:13 am »

Why havent we banned ARG yet?  I mean you cant even guess which way they get it wrong or "forgot to poll area x"
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dspNY
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« Reply #4 on: April 29, 2016, 11:01:58 am »

Sanders and Cruz can start writing their Indiana victory speeches now
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Seriously?
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« Reply #5 on: April 29, 2016, 11:44:23 am »

Conducted April 27-28, MoE +/-5

GOP
Trump 41%
Cruz 32%
Kasich 21%

Dems
Clinton 51%
Sanders 43%

http://americanresearchgroup.com

RIP Trump?

ARGGGGGH!!!!!! Looks like they are getting good at following the pack....
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Holmes
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« Reply #6 on: April 29, 2016, 11:51:04 am »

Sanders and Cruz can start writing their Indiana victory speeches now

Sanders will just give his regular stump speech for 75 minutes whether he wins or loses anyway?
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #7 on: April 29, 2016, 12:02:26 pm »

Wait 49% of Indiana approves of Obama. Why havent we banned this group yet.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
sjkqw
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« Reply #8 on: April 29, 2016, 12:05:31 pm »

Wait 49% of Indiana approves of Obama. Why havent we banned this group yet.

Why wouldn't they when he's at a clear majority nationally. That's right on target.
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Fargobison
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« Reply #9 on: April 29, 2016, 12:10:22 pm »

Wait 49% of Indiana approves of Obama. Why havent we banned this group yet.

Why wouldn't they when he's at a clear majority nationally. That's right on target.

I would expect Obama to be in the low 40s in a state like Indiana.

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Nathan
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« Reply #10 on: April 29, 2016, 12:58:46 pm »

I'm not sure I understand why this is concerning for Trump. Is it because Kasich is high enough that a great deal of his support might flow to CRUZ?
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Polarized MT Treasurer
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« Reply #11 on: April 29, 2016, 12:59:19 pm »

AAARRRRGGGGHHHHHHHH!!
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Simfan34
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« Reply #12 on: April 29, 2016, 01:08:32 pm »

I'm not sure I understand why this is concerning for Trump. Is it because Kasich is high enough that a great deal of his support might flow to CRUZ?

Because ARRRGGGH!
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dspNY
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« Reply #13 on: April 29, 2016, 01:11:22 pm »

Wait 49% of Indiana approves of Obama. Why havent we banned this group yet.

Why wouldn't they when he's at a clear majority nationally. That's right on target.

I would expect Obama to be in the low 40s in a state like Indiana.



If that...Indiana might have voted for him in 2008 but I can't see him above 40% there now and I think Obama's approval is several points above even where you would expect in the blue states. He's probably sitting at 38% in Indiana and 48% in Ohio
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Nathan
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« Reply #14 on: April 29, 2016, 01:15:53 pm »

I'm not sure I understand why this is concerning for Trump. Is it because Kasich is high enough that a great deal of his support might flow to CRUZ?

Because ARRRGGGH!

Oh! Oh, I get it. I was confusing ARG with a less sh**tty pollster.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
sjkqw
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« Reply #15 on: April 29, 2016, 01:45:24 pm »

I'm not sure I understand why this is concerning for Trump. Is it because Kasich is high enough that a great deal of his support might flow to CRUZ?

Personally, I'm concerned with Trump being only at 41. I was hoping mid 40s at this stage.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #16 on: April 29, 2016, 02:32:38 pm »

Good lord, the Indiana polls in the past few days have been dire.
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ashridge
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« Reply #17 on: April 29, 2016, 03:56:25 pm »

ARG was the last poll that came out before Wisconsin voted. They Undershot Cruz's actual # by 16. Overshot Trump's actual # by 7, and Overshot Kasich's actual # by 9. They've been about Kasich's best pollster the whole campaign, almost always overshooting his actual result, and usually by a lot. They also seem to be very frequently off on Trump, almost always in his favor as well. The only one they undershoot on a regular basis is Cruz. These IN numbers are actually almost exactly what the Wisconsin numbers were. Now I don't think Cruz is going to win IN by 13 like he did in Wisconsin, but seeing Trump up by 9 over Cruz in an ARG poll doesn't make me think Trump's going to win Indiana, either. They were way off in TX, IA and MI as well, to name a few.

I have a hard time seeing Kasich getting 21% in Indiana, with him not campaigning or advertising there, and with Pence endorsing Cruz.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #18 on: April 29, 2016, 04:07:05 pm »

ARG was the last poll that came out before Wisconsin voted. They Undershot Cruz's actual # by 16. Overshot Trump's actual # by 7, and Overshot Kasich's actual # by 9. They've been about Kasich's best pollster the whole campaign, almost always overshooting his actual result, and usually by a lot. They also seem to be very frequently off on Trump, almost always in his favor as well. The only one they undershoot on a regular basis is Cruz. These IN numbers are actually almost exactly what the Wisconsin numbers were. Now I don't think Cruz is going to win IN by 13 like he did in Wisconsin, but seeing Trump up by 9 over Cruz in an ARG poll doesn't make me think Trump's going to win Indiana, either. They were way off in TX, IA and MI as well, to name a few.

I have a hard time seeing Kasich getting 21% in Indiana, with him not campaigning or advertising there, and with Pence endorsing Cruz.

I don't think you can apply any consistent biases to ARG. They had Hillary up 1 in Wisconsin but only up 6 in Maryland. It's better to just ignore them.
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swf541
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« Reply #19 on: April 29, 2016, 04:14:22 pm »

ARG was the last poll that came out before Wisconsin voted. They Undershot Cruz's actual # by 16. Overshot Trump's actual # by 7, and Overshot Kasich's actual # by 9. They've been about Kasich's best pollster the whole campaign, almost always overshooting his actual result, and usually by a lot. They also seem to be very frequently off on Trump, almost always in his favor as well. The only one they undershoot on a regular basis is Cruz. These IN numbers are actually almost exactly what the Wisconsin numbers were. Now I don't think Cruz is going to win IN by 13 like he did in Wisconsin, but seeing Trump up by 9 over Cruz in an ARG poll doesn't make me think Trump's going to win Indiana, either. They were way off in TX, IA and MI as well, to name a few.

I have a hard time seeing Kasich getting 21% in Indiana, with him not campaigning or advertising there, and with Pence endorsing Cruz.

I don't think you can apply any consistent biases to ARG. They had Hillary up 1 in Wisconsin but only up 6 in Maryland. It's better to just ignore them.
This
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #20 on: April 29, 2016, 04:26:17 pm »

Go Trump!
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #21 on: April 29, 2016, 05:45:23 pm »

Good to see.
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For Trump everything, for immigrants the law
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« Reply #22 on: April 29, 2016, 06:41:01 pm »

Congrats to Cruz and Sanders on their respective victories in Indiana.
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Badger
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« Reply #23 on: April 30, 2016, 05:56:19 pm »

Wait 49% of Indiana approves of Obama. Why havent we banned this group yet.

Why wouldn't they when he's at a clear majority nationally. That's right on target.

I would expect Obama to be in the low 40s in a state like Indiana.



If that...Indiana might have voted for him in 2008 but I can't see him above 40% there now and I think Obama's approval is several points above even where you would expect in the blue states. He's probably sitting at 38% in Indiana and 48% in Ohio

They polled 400 likely voters in each party's primary. That even self-identified D/R split is likely to make responses seem more purple state than a red state like IN. Though that in and of itself doesn't necessarily throw off the results of the individual primary numbers.

Leaving any issues about this being ARG (haven't they been at less not notably less off than most posters this cycle? Or at least been in the ballpark enough to rise above the status of complete effing joke? Or is that Gravis I'm thinking of?), there's no way Kasich is getting 21% next week, and Cruz will win the lion's share of the difference.

IF this poll is accurate, Trump may be in trouble Tuesday.
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IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #24 on: April 30, 2016, 07:09:27 pm »

Who hoo! ARG had Trump up in WI too!
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