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  IN - ARG: Trump +9, Clinton +8
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Author Topic: IN - ARG: Trump +9, Clinton +8  (Read 2092 times)
IceSpear
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« Reply #25 on: April 30, 2016, 07:54:52 pm »

Wait 49% of Indiana approves of Obama. Why havent we banned this group yet.

Why wouldn't they when he's at a clear majority nationally. That's right on target.

I would expect Obama to be in the low 40s in a state like Indiana.



If that...Indiana might have voted for him in 2008 but I can't see him above 40% there now and I think Obama's approval is several points above even where you would expect in the blue states. He's probably sitting at 38% in Indiana and 48% in Ohio

They polled 400 likely voters in each party's primary. That even self-identified D/R split is likely to make responses seem more purple state than a red state like IN. Though that in and of itself doesn't necessarily throw off the results of the individual primary numbers.

Leaving any issues about this being ARG (haven't they been at less not notably less off than most posters this cycle? Or at least been in the ballpark enough to rise above the status of complete effing joke? Or is that Gravis I'm thinking of?), there's no way Kasich is getting 21% next week, and Cruz will win the lion's share of the difference.

IF this poll is accurate, Trump may be in trouble Tuesday.

They were off by 20+ in Wisconsin and Maryland, and that's only recently...
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Badger
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« Reply #26 on: April 30, 2016, 08:29:25 pm »
« Edited: April 30, 2016, 08:42:40 pm by Badger »

Wait 49% of Indiana approves of Obama. Why havent we banned this group yet.

Why wouldn't they when he's at a clear majority nationally. That's right on target.

I would expect Obama to be in the low 40s in a state like Indiana.



If that...Indiana might have voted for him in 2008 but I can't see him above 40% there now and I think Obama's approval is several points above even where you would expect in the blue states. He's probably sitting at 38% in Indiana and 48% in Ohio

They polled 400 likely voters in each party's primary. That even self-identified D/R split is likely to make responses seem more purple state than a red state like IN. Though that in and of itself doesn't necessarily throw off the results of the individual primary numbers.

Leaving any issues about this being ARG (haven't they been at less not notably less off than most posters this cycle? Or at least been in the ballpark enough to rise above the status of complete effing joke? Or is that Gravis I'm thinking of?), there's no way Kasich is getting 21% next week, and Cruz will win the lion's share of the difference.

IF this poll is accurate, Trump may be in trouble Tuesday.

They were off by 20+ in Wisconsin and Maryland, and that's only recently...

Did you note I capitalized/emphasized "IF"? Wink

Actually I just noticed something: EXCEPT for the ARG outlier, EVERY poll in the last 2 weeks before WI had Cruz up. The last three sans ARG averaged him ahead by +6. On the other hand, every IN poll (except that excerable Cruz +16 joke) in the last week and a half has had Trump up. Taking out the aforementioned joke poll, plus the borderline internal +2 poll, and the last three IN polls including this one have Trump up an average of +6.6. If any #neverTrump types want to nitpick over excluding the +2 poll, its inclusion would still have Trump up by about 5 1/2.

This still will be close, and Cruz could pull off an upset, but even if the polls are overestimating Trump's lead by as much as 5 points he'll still win. And unlike previous contests where he needed to win big in order to run his delegate totals up ahead of the pack, in IN he basically just needs to win by 1 vote to make his nomination near-certain.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #27 on: April 30, 2016, 08:47:23 pm »

If Trump loses badly then he can very well lose Indiana as well. I don't know why so many people seem to believe Indiana is so inelastic; it's not as if the 2008 result was the product of a mass psychotic break. It'll swing to the Dems under the right conditions, which I think have a fair chance of being met in a Trump-Hillary matchup. Sure, a large portion of the state may appear culturally similar to the South, but so does much of Pennsylvania-- another state that people here refuse to believe could ever possibly flip (despite a clear Republican trend).
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