ashridge
Rookie
Posts: 34
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« on: April 29, 2016, 03:56:25 PM » |
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ARG was the last poll that came out before Wisconsin voted. They Undershot Cruz's actual # by 16. Overshot Trump's actual # by 7, and Overshot Kasich's actual # by 9. They've been about Kasich's best pollster the whole campaign, almost always overshooting his actual result, and usually by a lot. They also seem to be very frequently off on Trump, almost always in his favor as well. The only one they undershoot on a regular basis is Cruz. These IN numbers are actually almost exactly what the Wisconsin numbers were. Now I don't think Cruz is going to win IN by 13 like he did in Wisconsin, but seeing Trump up by 9 over Cruz in an ARG poll doesn't make me think Trump's going to win Indiana, either. They were way off in TX, IA and MI as well, to name a few.
I have a hard time seeing Kasich getting 21% in Indiana, with him not campaigning or advertising there, and with Pence endorsing Cruz.
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