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  2016 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  OH-PPP: All tied up
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Author Topic: OH-PPP: All tied up  (Read 1934 times)
RogueBeaver
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« on: May 02, 2016, 06:38:07 am »

38/38, 23% undecided. Also, FWIW, Brown crushes Mandel in a rematch 47/33.
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #1 on: May 02, 2016, 07:13:26 am »

Well,
If Trump wins the WH, Portman wins.
And if Clinton wins the WH, Strickland wins.

No party split ticket!
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olowakandi
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« Reply #2 on: May 02, 2016, 07:13:53 am »
« Edited: May 02, 2016, 07:15:27 am by Da-Jon »

Strickland like Murphy are staying competetive in GOP leaning states

Trump is having problems in OH/Va
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THE BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #3 on: May 02, 2016, 07:19:57 am »

Well,
If Trump wins the WH, Portman wins.
And if Clinton wins the WH, Strickland wins.

No party split ticket!

Not true. 

Strickland can well win Trump voters in Appalachia who would be turned off by Portman's trade record.
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #4 on: May 02, 2016, 07:20:44 am »

Well,
If Trump wins the WH, Portman wins.
And if Clinton wins the WH, Strickland wins.

No party split ticket!

Not true. 

Strickland can well win Trump voters in Appalachia who would be turned off by Portman's trade record.

So you believe Strickland is going to overperform Hillary???
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olowakandi
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« Reply #5 on: May 02, 2016, 07:24:24 am »

IL/CO/NV/FL/WI/AZ and OH will be D's route to a 51*50 Senate
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IA less likely to flip than OH/TX/FL/GA/NC/AZ
IndyRep
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« Reply #6 on: May 02, 2016, 12:04:26 pm »

Well,
If Trump wins the WH, Portman wins.
And if Clinton wins the WH, Strickland wins.

No party split ticket!

Uh, Portman can win even if Trump loses the state.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #7 on: May 02, 2016, 12:09:04 pm »

Well,
If Trump wins the WH, Portman wins.
And if Clinton wins the WH, Strickland wins.

No party split ticket!

Uh, Portman can win even if Trump loses the state.

Clinton is more likely to win Va but lose OH and Strickland edges Portman. But Portman isnt taking an active roll at party convention that's how worried he's with Trump
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IA less likely to flip than OH/TX/FL/GA/NC/AZ
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« Reply #8 on: May 02, 2016, 12:55:04 pm »

New Poll: Ohio Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2016-04-27

Summary: D: 38%, R: 38%, U: 23%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #9 on: May 02, 2016, 03:21:32 pm »

Well,
If Trump wins the WH, Portman wins.
And if Clinton wins the WH, Strickland wins.

No party split ticket!

Uh, Portman can win even if Trump loses the state.
May I ask why?

He's a bland senator,  he has never led the polls by a big margin, Strickland is a top tier recruit. Money don't buy elections.
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THE BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #10 on: May 02, 2016, 03:28:32 pm »
« Edited: May 02, 2016, 03:30:32 pm by BuckeyeNut »

Well,
If Trump wins the WH, Portman wins.
And if Clinton wins the WH, Strickland wins.

No party split ticket!

Not true.  

Strickland can well win Trump voters in Appalachia who would be turned off by Portman's trade record.

So you believe Strickland is going to overperform Hillary???
I don't think it's plausible Portman is elected if Clinton wins, but I do think it's plausible Strickland gets elected if Trump wins. Unlikely, but plausible.

It's less about outperforming and more about where they will be performing. I expect Clinton to have higher numbers in the North East than Strickland, and I expect him to have higher numbers in Appalachia, where he may well get some split-ticket support.

Portman: pro-trade, against TPP for election
Strickland: hard anti-trade
Clinton: pro-trade, against TPP for election
Trump: hard anti-trade
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #11 on: May 02, 2016, 03:33:43 pm »

Well,
If Trump wins the WH, Portman wins.
And if Clinton wins the WH, Strickland wins.

No party split ticket!

Not true. 

Strickland can well win Trump voters in Appalachia who would be turned off by Portman's trade record.

So you believe Strickland is going to overperform Hillary???
I don't think it's plausible Portman is elected if Clinton wins, but I do think it's plausible Strickland gets elected if Trump wins. Unlikely, but plausible.

It's less about outperforming and more about where they will be performing. I expect Clinton to have higher numbers in the North East than Strickland, and I expect him to have higher numbers in Appalachia, where he may well get some split-ticket support.

Portman: pro-trade, against TPP for election
Strickland: hard anti-trade
Clinton: pro-trade, against TPP for election
Trump: hard anti-trade
Well,
I still think whoever wins Ohio in the presidential election (except if this is really close) will make his party win the senate seat.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #12 on: May 02, 2016, 03:50:23 pm »

Portman has a colorful résumé, and won more popular votes in 2010 than Strickland statewide.  Plus, wasn't Strickland an unpopular governor?  Anyway, this will be close, but my gut tells me Portman will narrowly prevail.
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #13 on: May 02, 2016, 03:55:42 pm »

Portman has a colorful résumé, and won more popular votes in 2010 than Strickland statewide.  Plus, wasn't Strickland an unpopular governor?  Anyway, this will be close, but my gut tells me Portman will narrowly prevail.
He was a so unpopular governor he lost only by 2 points, he carried many appalachian counties, that's turnout that sank him to be honest.
And even if it won't matter, Strickland's margin in 2006 was bigger than Portman's margin in 2010 (in %), but that won't matter because the contest will be different.

Portman isn't going to overperform the republican nominee, so whoever wins the WH (except if this is <1%) will make his party win the OH senate seat.

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THE BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #14 on: May 02, 2016, 04:29:49 pm »

Portman has a colorful résumé, and won more popular votes in 2010 than Strickland statewide.  Plus, wasn't Strickland an unpopular governor?  Anyway, this will be close, but my gut tells me Portman will narrowly prevail.

As Windhammer says, different races. Portman has a very easy election in '10, about as easy as Strickland had in '06. This race is going to be down to the wire.
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Vosem
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« Reply #15 on: May 02, 2016, 05:21:53 pm »

On the contrary; I think this poll shows that the scenario of Clinton/Portman is much likelier than Trump/Strickland. First of all, at least in terms of margin, Portman does better than all the non-Kasich presidential matchups; while Portman and Strickland have similar favorabilities (-8 and -9, respectively), Strickland is better known and more defined (21% no opinion; 28% for Portman).

Also, just in general, Portman has been fundraising much stronger than Strickland, and there's been a general pattern of old ex-Governors coming back to run for the Senate and losing in recent years.

I think Trump/Strickland is an impossible scenario. Trump wins only if something terrible happens to the Hillary campaign, and anything that terrible will probably have Democrats collapsing up and down the ballot. Clinton/Portman is likely, Clinton/Strickland is definitely possible; Trump/Portman is extremely unlikely but the path to it exists. There's no path that leads to Trump/Strickland.
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THE BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #16 on: May 02, 2016, 05:39:00 pm »

You're greatly underestimating disaffected, rustbelt independents. Trade is going to be the biggest issue here.

Also, yes, Portman has been fundraising more strongly than Strickland, but so long as Strickland can match pace, he's okay. Ohio Republicans always raise more. Mandel isn't Portman, but Brown had in excess of $40 million spent against him, and still pulled through.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #17 on: May 02, 2016, 05:54:27 pm »

Well,
If Trump wins the WH, Portman wins.
And if Clinton wins the WH, Strickland wins.

No party split ticket!

Not true. 

Strickland can well win Trump voters in Appalachia who would be turned off by Portman's trade record.

Possibly, but I think Appalachia may have turned against the Democrats for good. Just look at how heavily they went against their former hero Mark Warner in Virginia. Also, shouldn't Portman outperform Trump in the suburbs?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #18 on: May 02, 2016, 05:56:03 pm »

Also, FWIW, Brown crushes Mandel in a rematch 47/33.

#Ready4Mandel
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #19 on: May 02, 2016, 06:00:06 pm »

Well,
If Trump wins the WH, Portman wins.
And if Clinton wins the WH, Strickland wins.

No party split ticket!

Not true. 

Strickland can well win Trump voters in Appalachia who would be turned off by Portman's trade record.

Possibly, but I think Appalachia may have turned against the Democrats for good. Just look at how heavily they went against their former hero Mark Warner in Virginia. Also, shouldn't Portman outperform Trump in the suburbs?
I still can't believe by how much Mark Warner's support collapsed in 2014 in the Appalachian districts (5, 6, 9).
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #20 on: May 02, 2016, 06:53:40 pm »

Vosem is right. I'm surprised to see the opposite argument at all. We will likely see Trump underperforming Republican Senators across the country.
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THE BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #21 on: May 02, 2016, 08:14:34 pm »

I only defend it as plausible, no one here thinks it likely.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #22 on: May 03, 2016, 07:18:29 am »

Portman definitely isn't favored anymore, its a tossup
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Young Texan
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« Reply #23 on: May 03, 2016, 09:18:57 am »

Portman can still win I am just waiting for that brutal ad campaign that tanks Strickland in the end. Also, in a debate I could see Portman eviscerating Strickland on his record. Ohio will be reelecting Portman.
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CapoteMonster
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« Reply #24 on: May 03, 2016, 09:41:43 am »

I wonder how many TRUMP Strickland voters there'll be in Eastern Ohio.
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