FL-AIF: Clinton significantly leads Trump and Cruz
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  FL-AIF: Clinton significantly leads Trump and Cruz
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Author Topic: FL-AIF: Clinton significantly leads Trump and Cruz  (Read 4808 times)
Zache
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« on: May 02, 2016, 08:32:41 AM »

Clinton 49
Trump 36

Clinton 48
Cruz 39

http://www.capitalnewyork.com/article/florida/2016/05/8598048/florida-poll-republican-brand-damage-bolsters-clinton

http://static.politico.com/00/fd/3b66ba454039b21f6797f039096e/april28-lge-600-final-slides.pdf

Cubans really, REALLY don't like Trump.
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standwrand
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« Reply #1 on: May 02, 2016, 09:10:09 AM »

Sad! Only the sweet prince Rubio can win FL
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #2 on: May 02, 2016, 01:48:33 PM »

BEAUTIFUL!
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #3 on: May 02, 2016, 01:59:31 PM »

Ouch, this will put FL in the Lean-Likely D column if the trend keeps up.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #4 on: May 02, 2016, 02:19:04 PM »

Why was Trump polling so far ahead of Clinton in FL in late 2015/early 2016 if this is the case?
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Crumpets
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« Reply #5 on: May 02, 2016, 02:33:52 PM »

In this election, Georgia is a D+9 state and Florida is a D+15 relative to the national average.

#Rasmussen
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Fargobison
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« Reply #6 on: May 02, 2016, 02:39:05 PM »

How exactly do you turn this around???



https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/727106592194236416
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #7 on: May 02, 2016, 02:40:33 PM »

In this election, Georgia is a D+9 state and Florida is a D+15 relative to the national average.

#Rasmussen

I thought this was supposed to happen within the coming decades and not this cycle! Wow...

As a side question, when do general election polls start mattering more? Are we already within that window?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #8 on: May 02, 2016, 03:09:55 PM »

Dominating!
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #9 on: May 02, 2016, 04:59:19 PM »

In this election, Georgia is a D+9 state and Florida is a D+15 relative to the national average.

#Rasmussen

I thought this was supposed to happen within the coming decades and not this cycle! Wow...

As a side question, when do general election polls start mattering more? Are we already within that window?

The States elect the President; the People don't. I look at the state-by state maps and I see few ways for Republicans to pick up states that they haven't won since the 1980s.

Republicans have been losing Hispanics with their crass anti-intellectualism. It is one thing to criticize an eccentric college professor or wayward writer; it is another to reject intellectual achievement altogether. Republican contempt even for science ensures that such people as schoolteachers and accountants can hold Republican pols in contempt. Schoolteachers and accountants are among the largest occupational groups in America.

It could just be that Donald Trump and Ted Cruz are the two worst matches that the Republicans have had for America since Barry Goldwater. Goldwater simply scared Americans with his bellicose rhetoric about the Soviet Union. Trump and Cruz attack what many Americans are and what they dream. Either one of them would make American liberals wax nostalgic -- about Ronald Reagan.
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Just Passion Through
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« Reply #10 on: May 02, 2016, 07:27:41 PM »

Clinton only loses Whites by 8 points and wins Hispanics by 43 points (59-16). Terrible numbers for the GOP. Trump really has a VA/FL/CO problem. He has to find a path to 270 EV that doesn't include those three states.

Pennsylvania, Ohio, Iowa.

The new friewall.
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #11 on: May 02, 2016, 07:28:54 PM »

Sad! Only the sweet prince Rubio can win FL

The guy who lost his home state's primary by nearly 20 points and only won a single county? Yeah, don't think so.
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Xing
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« Reply #12 on: May 02, 2016, 07:29:28 PM »

Freedom poll! Republicans aren't winning without FL, period.
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Fargobison
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« Reply #13 on: May 02, 2016, 10:30:50 PM »
« Edited: May 02, 2016, 10:51:31 PM by Fargobison »

Sad! Only the sweet prince Rubio can win FL

The guy who lost his home state's primary by nearly 20 points and only won a single county? Yeah, don't think so.

Well this poll does have him winning a hypothetical Senate reelection by 8 points.

Wish they would have tossed in a hypothetical Rubio-Clinton as well. 
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Holmes
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« Reply #14 on: May 02, 2016, 11:09:54 PM »

Damn. Even at 87-10 with Hispanics, I think a 13% win is almost unthinkable. I think Clinton has a good chance of winning Florida comfortably though.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #15 on: May 03, 2016, 01:04:06 AM »

How reliable is this poll?
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HAnnA MArin County
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« Reply #16 on: May 04, 2016, 09:12:45 AM »

Republicans really should be shaking in their boots to see that she's eating into their white vote, since that's the only vote they care about. I could see her winning white women against Trump and holding him to single digits among men.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #17 on: May 04, 2016, 10:40:06 AM »

Republicans really should be shaking in their boots to see that she's eating into their white vote, since that's the only vote they care about. I could see her winning white women against Trump and holding him to single digits among men.

Not only is it all they care about, it's all they got Grin
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #18 on: May 05, 2016, 01:57:44 AM »

And this, my friends, is why the 'Trump expands' the map is delusional. I have Florida as safe democrat for a reason.
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Badger
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« Reply #19 on: May 05, 2016, 01:59:09 AM »

And this, my friends, is why the 'Trump expands' the map is delusional. I have Florida as safe democrat for a reason.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #20 on: May 05, 2016, 08:23:22 AM »

A "comfortable" lead for Democrats in a state that has usually been about R+3 except in 2000 (when it was infamously close to even) indicates big trouble for the Republican front-runner now-certain nominee of the Republican Party.  Obama nearly lost Florida in 2012 (making the difference between 303 and 332 and a close election and the unlikely result of an election with the mean in electoral votes), and Bill Clinton got mixed results in Florida. If Bill Clinton could lose the state once, then the state was not then easy picking for Democrats.

The recent precedents of Presidential elections remain 2000 to 2012. In each Florida was (2000) or could have been the difference between a Republican and Democratic win of the Presidency. People will be talking of the role of Florida in the 2000 election for decades. 2004? It was a decisive loss for Kerry, but it would have given him the election (although either Ohio or the combination of Colorado, Iowa, and New Mexico were closer). In 2008 and 2012 the question was of which state would put Obama over the top, and it turned out that some other state that Kerry lost in 2004 (it was a combination of Iowa, Nevada, and New Mexico that put Obama over the top; in 2012 it was going to be Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, or Florida, all of which Obama won).

2016 looks very different from 2012 at this point. In 2012 Obama was reasonably certain of having 263 electoral votes locked up (Gore 2000 + NH  or Kerry 2004 + IA+ NM) with four states with the possibility of deciding the election iffy (CO, FL, OH, VA). This time we have a difference: those states give Hillary Clinton a marked edge early. These are not coin-tosses.

A symptom of this reality is that states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin look as if they are completely off the table. The 2008 pattern of Obama winning states behind the Blue (Atlas Red) firewall by landslides and a few other states contestable but any one of them securing an Obama win looks like a better chance for Donald Trump than what he now has.

We are not accustomed to seeing Democratic landslides. We may see one this year.
   

 
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Maxwell
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« Reply #21 on: May 05, 2016, 01:46:52 PM »

I think, this election at least, Ohio and Florida move in opposite directions.
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dspNY
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« Reply #22 on: May 05, 2016, 09:51:51 PM »
« Edited: May 05, 2016, 09:54:47 PM by dspNY »

I think, this election at least, Ohio and Florida move in opposite directions.

I agree. Hispanics hate Trump with a fire of a thousand suns (even the Cubans). Hillary will also do better with Jewish retirees in South Florida than Obama. I think Florida votes to the left of Ohio this time, possibly by a substantial amount (5-7 points). Trump will lose the entire I-4, including Tampa and Orlando, get massacred in South Florida, and there are not enough whites in the Panhandle and North Florida to make up the difference.

Ohio will just be a more polarized version of itself in previous years. She will peel off just enough votes in Cleveland and Columbus to edge it. In fact, I think North Carolina is actually a marginally better state for Clinton (forget about Virginia, it is Likely Dem) than Ohio.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #23 on: May 06, 2016, 07:52:03 AM »

The Tampa Bay doesn't buy this poll, apparently:

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http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/exhibits-a-and-b-on-why-donald-trump-may-win-florida/2276083
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IceSpear
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« Reply #24 on: May 06, 2016, 02:24:32 PM »


The thing is, Marist had him down 8 and CNN down 7. So maybe those district polls are just junk. Time will tell I guess.
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