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Author Topic: PPP - Tight race in Ohio  (Read 2974 times)
Ronnie
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« on: May 02, 2016, 09:19:11 am »

Conducted April 26-27, MoE +/- 3.2%

Clinton 45%
Trump 42%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_OH_50216.pdf
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NHI
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« Reply #1 on: May 02, 2016, 09:32:34 am »

Whoa.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #2 on: May 02, 2016, 09:33:04 am »

Clinton will win OH
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Ray Goldfield
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« Reply #3 on: May 02, 2016, 09:34:57 am »

This is what an election where everyone hates both candidates looks like.
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pppolitics
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« Reply #4 on: May 02, 2016, 09:37:22 am »

This is what an election where everyone hates both candidates looks like.
You are mistaken.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #5 on: May 02, 2016, 09:39:44 am »

Clinton leading OH and Va is always good, so she wont play defense so much in Co & Iowa. But Castro will be our Veep
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Maxwell
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« Reply #6 on: May 02, 2016, 09:56:15 am »

Any time I test Ohio in a Trump scenario in the Nate Silver demographic calculator, Trump does about 5 points better there than he does nationally. I'm not sure that will end up being true, but this is probably Trump's best potential swing state.
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standwrand
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« Reply #7 on: May 02, 2016, 09:57:01 am »

Trump will win OH if the election is D+1-2
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The fierce, barbarian tribe of Hoosiers do not tolerate being asked their opinions.
olowakandi
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« Reply #8 on: May 02, 2016, 09:58:41 am »

Not necessarily, Clinton is much stronger in OH than she is in CO. She needs to win here.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #9 on: May 02, 2016, 10:04:38 am »

Not necessarily, Clinton is much stronger in OH than she is in CO. She needs to win here.

Fortunately for Clinton, Trump is an even worse fit for Colorado.
« Last Edit: May 02, 2016, 10:13:25 am by Ronnie »Logged

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #10 on: May 02, 2016, 10:39:25 am »

I TOLD YOU SO.


Winning Indiana by 7 means that Trump or Cruz will be losing the US as a whole by 5-6%. Indiana really does swing in elections; Republicans can win it in normal years by anything from about 3% to about 20%. (Going for Obama in 2008 was something of a fluke; the RV industry, whose workers are comparatively conservative, turned against Republicans when their market was hit by a combination of a credit crunch, sky-high gas prices, and as general downturn in the economy... and Obama campaigned in Indiana as if he needed the state). Obama lost the state in 2012 by about 10% because the economic triple-whammy was no longer in effect (he would have lost the state by about 20% had even one of the components of the triple-whammy were in effect in 2012) and because he could not campaign in Indiana.

On the other side, if the Democratic nominee is winning Rhode Island (which is about as D as Indiana is R) by 7%, then the Democratic nominee is losing by about 5# nationwide.

Indiana does swing, but it almost always remains just out of reach of a Democratic nominee.

Or even more simply, Indiana is about 8% more Republican than Ohio, and if the Republican isn't winning Indiana by a double-digit margin, then he is also losing Ohio. 

Conducted April 26-27, MoE +/- 3.2%

Clinton 45%
Trump 42%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_OH_50216.pdf
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« Reply #11 on: May 02, 2016, 12:03:31 pm »

Clinton: 44%
Cruz: 35%

Kasich: 43%
Clinton: 41%
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #12 on: May 02, 2016, 12:21:33 pm »

Oh dear.....

: (
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Devils30
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« Reply #13 on: May 02, 2016, 12:44:17 pm »

Hillary will win Florida by more than Ohio this time. Much more room to grow with Hispanics, Jews and white seniors in FL compared to dying factory towns in OH and can't depend on the huge black turnout in Ohio that Obama got. I see VA OR IA being Hillary's 265th ev, PA 285, FL 314, OH 332.
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King
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« Reply #14 on: May 02, 2016, 01:13:13 pm »

Wow, even Sanders favorables here are -16.
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Joshua
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« Reply #15 on: May 02, 2016, 01:18:54 pm »

Wow, even Sanders favorables here are -16.

Looks like Sanders is morphing into a generic (D) like everyone who is not a hack predicted.
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #16 on: May 02, 2016, 02:47:25 pm »

This is what an election where everyone hates both candidates looks like.
You are mistaken.

How is he mistaken? It's true.
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #17 on: May 02, 2016, 03:05:44 pm »

Not surprising at all. Ohio should be one of Trump's better battleground states. The Kasich numbers look...off though.
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ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #18 on: May 02, 2016, 03:07:22 pm »

Hillary should be able to at least hold Obama's OH 2012 numbers with white women, if not improve them, no?
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #19 on: May 03, 2016, 03:31:19 am »

Wow, even Sanders favorables here are -16.

Looks like Sanders is morphing into a generic (D) like everyone who is not a hack predicted.

Or Ohio really doesn't care for him as the primary results showed us.
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« Reply #20 on: May 03, 2016, 03:37:02 am »

Wow, even Sanders favorables here are -16.

Looks like Sanders is morphing into a generic (D) like everyone who is not a hack predicted.

Or Ohio really doesn't care for him as the primary results showed us.

Or that PPP stands out like a sore thumb here.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/bernie-sanders-favorable-rating
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Simfan34
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« Reply #21 on: May 03, 2016, 07:45:32 am »

Kasich: 43%
Clinton: 41%

Junk poll!
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« Reply #22 on: May 03, 2016, 07:47:34 am »

Ohio will go to Trump in a neck and neck race. FL and VA will be the big hurdles.
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mds32
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« Reply #23 on: May 03, 2016, 08:00:29 am »

Trump's ceiling is 42% in Ohio?? Sad......
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JRoby
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« Reply #24 on: May 03, 2016, 08:03:08 am »

Trump's ceiling is 42% in Ohio?? Sad......

You're an idiot.
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