Right Vote Split Candidates on November Ballot-Realistic Options and Scenarios

[StateBoiler]

First, established third parties:

-Gary Johnson is likely going to become the presidential nominee of the Libertarian Party. Johnson, a former Republican governor of New Mexico, in 2012 had the highest vote percentage of a Libertarian presidential nominee (0.99%) since Ed Clark's campaign in 1980 (1.06%). Has ballot access to 33 states at the moment.

-Darrell Castle is the presidential nominee of the Constitution Party, the main third party to the right of Republicans but much smaller than the Libertarians. Has ballot access to 17 states at the moment. There are 3 smaller parties that have ballot access in a handful of states. Some to all of these parties will likely ballot petition their access to more states prior to November.

Realistically, I think Johnson will see an increase in vote share to some extent (Even a small move upwards would make a Johnson 2016 run as the most successful Libertarian presidential campaign ever). Ditto Castle, although his upside is much more limited due to the CP's lower profile compared to the LP.

-The Conservative Party of New York at the moment have said they will not endorse Trump as of early April, but that could change. In theory they could support another candidate. In practice, they have co-nominated the Republican nominee from 1968 onwards.

-There's some discussion tonight of a possible rump third party run by some diehards. Although fundraising fatigue has come in part to some of the Never Trump folks. Stuff like this will have to develop rather quickly but whether some people see this as workable or something they even want to attempt won't be decided tonight. This could come in two forms: first, a Ted Cruz-type; second, a Mitt Romney (or even more crazily) or George H.W. Bush type.

There's also the option done by a state's political grandee on a state-by-state level to "show what we stand for". I could see this in Utah for example.