GA-Landmark: Trump 42 Clinton 41

[HAnnA MArin County]

So, what is the key for Democrats winning Georgia? I know it obviously depends on a record turnout of the black voters mimicking Obama 2008, but approximately how much more of the white vote must Hillary win?

Also, are the Hispanic/Latino and Asian populations increasing at such a rate that if she turned out those voters she could make up for any losses in the white vote?

I assume that Democrats must win Gwinnett County as well. What other suburban/exurban counties must she win or at least keep close to eke out a victory?

[sportydude]

I'll pray for an independent-conservative ticket...

[Wisconsin+17]

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Geez. Good thing we've got a nominee who can expand the map.

[pppolitics]

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Geez. Good thing we've got a nominee who can expand the map.

It's a good thing that the Republican nominee isn't Lucifer.

[Holmes]

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Geez. Good thing we've got a nominee who can expand the map.

It's a good thing that the Republican nominee isn't Lucifer.

Cruz wouldn't have made Georgia competitive. He'd have gotten decimated in the north east and west coast, but a southern boy would win Georgia.

[HillOfANight]

So, what is the key for Democrats winning Georgia? I know it obviously depends on a record turnout of the black voters mimicking Obama 2008, but approximately how much more of the white vote must Hillary win?

Also, are the Hispanic/Latino and Asian populations increasing at such a rate that if she turned out those voters she could make up for any losses in the white vote?

I assume that Democrats must win Gwinnett County as well. What other suburban/exurban counties must she win or at least keep close to eke out a victory?

Michelle Nunn had a 30-30 plan (30% of electorate black and 30% of support of whites). She ended up I think with 22%.

She did get 30% in a few polls but the wave was too big.

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/2014/11/04/the-critical-white-vote/

[Adam Griffin]

So, what is the key for Democrats winning Georgia? I know it obviously depends on a record turnout of the black voters mimicking Obama 2008, but approximately how much more of the white vote must Hillary win?

Also, are the Hispanic/Latino and Asian populations increasing at such a rate that if she turned out those voters she could make up for any losses in the white vote?

I assume that Democrats must win Gwinnett County as well. What other suburban/exurban counties must she win or at least keep close to eke out a victory?

Projected 2016 Electorate * D Support

59% White * 0.26 = 15.34
31% Black * 0.90 = 27.90
10% Other * 0.65 = 6.50

============ 49.74%


I think that a generic Georgia win right now would need to be comprised of (relatively) uniform swings across the state, meaning that neither Gwinnett or Cobb County necessarily have to flip in order to win the state; the GOP might win there with pluralities or very weak majorities.

Likewise, a scenario in which Gwinnett/Cobb flip in 2016 (or even 2020) could still leave Democrats quite short of victory when factoring in their demographic trends. Gwinnett is definitely the more optimistic of the two in the short-term.

For 2016/Trump in particular, Georgia flipping would probably occur alongside insane swings in counties like these, with relatively weak swings toward/against Clinton in many rural areas. You'd likely see counties such as Henry flip outright (Carter/Nunn won it in 2014), Paulding creep close to 60; Bartow under 70; Cherokee and Forsyth closer to 70. The swings all across Metro ATL would need to come close to resembling that of SE Metro ATL in 2008.

[h456b]

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Geez. Good thing we've got a nominee who can expand the map.

It's a good thing that the Republican nominee isn't Lucifer.

Cruz wouldn't have made Georgia competitive. He'd have gotten decimated in the north east and west coast, but a southern boy would win Georgia.

Go look at the polls. A couple showed clinton beating both cruz and rubio and georgia. The last poll with Cruz had Trump doing better than Cruz in Georgia.

[Seriously?]

Is it fair to say that GA 2016 = VA 2000?

ummm. no. Hillary! is NOT winning Georgia. You red avatars get excited over the teaser polls in Georgia like we do in Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Then reality sets in.

[Virginiá]

Is it fair to say that GA 2016 = VA 2000?

ummm. no. Hillary! is NOT winning Georgia. You red avatars get excited over the teaser polls in Georgia like we do in Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Then reality sets in.

This kind of election is exactly the type of election where she would stand a chance of winning a state like Georgia.  I do think she is more likely to lose GA than win it, but it's likely to be close there.

I think the reason Republicans get wrongly excited about favorable polls in PA/etc is that they do that in relatively neutral years where they have no real advantage and thus no good reason to be optimistic. Contrast to this year, where at least a mini-landslide is now on the table. There is a difference.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Georgia is very inelastic.

It might not be as affected by a wave election as other states.

Democrats have better shot in an elastic states like Arizona.

Many on here won't like that Minnesota and Wisconsin aren't considered inelastic.  At least one poster will be furious that New Hampshire is both a swing state and an elastic state.  But, it seems to me that there is a strong cultural divide between the elastic and inelastic states as well.

I would actually place Minnesota in that only box that's empty.

[Ebsy]

Yeah, Minnesota is not a swing state.

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia is very inelastic.

It might not be as affected by a wave election as other states.

Democrats have better shot in an elastic states like Arizona.

FTFY

[/]

Georgia is very inelastic.

It might not be as affected by a wave election as other states.

Democrats have better shot in an elastic states like Arizona.

FTFY

Much better.

[Adam Griffin]

^^^ I actually changed it again (edited) because I believe BRTD is right about MN.

[Lief 🗽]

How are OR and WA elastic? They're both very polarized states that Democrats literally always win, even in wave years.

[IceSpear]

How are OR and WA elastic? They're both very polarized states that Democrats literally always win, even in wave years.

I'm not exactly sure how he calculates it and which elections are weighted. I'm guessing if it can range from a <0.5% Dem win (Gore in OR in 2000, Gregoire in WA in 2004) to 15+ point wins for Obama, that could count as pretty elastic.

[Wells]

I decided to do something with this poll that I've done before. Using these two demographic calculators I put in the crosstabs given and change the turnout until Trump does win Georgia by 1. The map is:

Hillary Clinton 385 EV's 53.9%
Donald Trump  153 EV's   45.2%

Clinton only won Texas in one simulation, but won by a larger margin in that one than Trump did in the other one. She probably won due to Hispanics.
If you average them together, Trump actually won Georgia by 1.1%.

[Wisconsin+17]

What the heck are those crosstabs? GA is weaker than AZ and TX.

[Adam Griffin]

How are OR and WA elastic? They're both very polarized states that Democrats literally always win, even in wave years.

TBF I considered moving them but there wasn't enough space

[Xing]

Yeah, WA and OR are about as elastic as GA. OR used to be a swing state in the early 2000s, but population growth in the Portland area has put it well out of reach for Republicans. And as Lief said, both states are very polarized, and the current Republican Party could never win over voters in the Seattle and Portland areas. Honestly, not that many states are elastic these days.

[MK]

I Know first hand here that dems aren't winning this state with Hillary lets take all guns Clinton.

  You guys like to mention that "we can run up votes with AA in the metro" possible but even still its not  enough to offset the white vote in other rural areas and Atlanta's more conservative counties like Cobb and YES Gwinnett is very republican despite its changing demos.  The dems aren't very organized here .   That religious freedom bill was a prime example of that. It took Dill to voteo the darn thing as the Atlanta democrats were powerless to stop it in the first place. The never ending rejection of Marta in the more white conservative counties is another example of the republican power here.


Yes, Bill Clinton in 1992 won here but 2016 far left wall street whore Hillary Clinton is not the right fit for this state. Trump will crush her with white males .

[DS0816]

If the Democrats win the White House, for a third consecutive term here in 2016, and do so five points above their 2012 result (from the U.S. Popular Vote), Georgia and Arizona will flip for them. And North Carolina would be won in a pickup before those two states.

[HillOfANight]

I Know first hand here that dems aren't winning this state with Hillary lets take all guns Clinton.

  You guys like to mention that "we can run up votes with AA in the metro" possible but even still its not  enough to offset the white vote in other rural areas and Atlanta's more conservative counties like Cobb and YES Gwinnett is very republican despite its changing demos.  The dems aren't very organized here .   That religious freedom bill was a prime example of that. It took Dill to voteo the darn thing as the Atlanta democrats were powerless to stop it in the first place. The never ending rejection of Marta in the more white conservative counties is another example of the republican power here.


Yes, Bill Clinton in 1992 won here but 2016 far left wall street whore Hillary Clinton is not the right fit for this state. Trump will crush her with white males .

Lol!!

Anyway, Gwinnett supports Marta.
http://www.myajc.com/news/news/local-govt-politics/poll-gwinnett-residents-in-favor-of-marta/nkwrQ/
The leadership has been stalling and ignoring the will of the voters to even allow a vote on it.

[Mr. Illini]

I see GA as unlikely to be a tipping point state, but this is good news for Dems because 1) it may force GOP to spend money there and 2) in a solid Dem victory, it could go Dem, which could set the stage for future elections (similar to VA 2008).