Austrian Presidential Election (RUNOFF) - Official Prediction Thread

[Tender Branson]

Post your runoff predictions here.

My prediction:

55.1% Hofer (FPÖ)
44.9% Van der Bellen (Greens)

Turnout: 74.4%

[SNJ1985]

Hofer: 52%
Van der Bellen: 48%

[Tender Branson]

Hofer: 52%
Van der Bellen: 47%

That's only 99% ...

There are no other candidates, just the two.

[SNJ1985]

Hofer: 52%
Van der Bellen: 47%

That's only 99% ...

There are no other candidates, just the two.

I just changed it.

I do think Hofer is favored, but I think it will be close.

[Hydera]

Hofer: 50.8
Vdb: 49.2

[republicanbayer]

Hofer 54%
Van der Bellen 46%

[reciprocity]

There seems to be no excitement for vdB... however, turnout is supposed to be high which means it could go either way; people turning out to vote for Hofer but also people may try to stop Hofer by voting for vdB. Polls have also been pretty incorrect this election, undermining Hofer's support. It could be close.

Hofer - 51%
vdB   - 49%

ETA: I am actually not sure how this will go. I actually think it may be 53-47 to Hofer. I just assumed the predicted increase in turnout would benefit vdB instead of Hofer.

[Tender Branson]

My district map for the runoff, assuming Hofer wins by around 10%:



Except for Vienna and its wealthy suburbs, the bigger capital cities and the Rhein Valley in Vorarlberg, I don't see how Van der Bellen can win additional districts in the rural parts. Maybe Steyr City in Upper Austria and Salzburg City, but that's about it ...

[Zuza]

Hofer 58.4 %
Van der Bellen 41.6 %

[Zanas]

I'm gonna go on a wild guess here and suppose there are still a number of decent people in Austria, and they're gonna be bothered to get out and vote to preserve their image as a country, aka French régionales 2015 runoff redux. So, for now :

Van der Bellen 53 %
Hofer 47 %

Of course, with still two weeks to go before the runoff, I may change that drastically one way or another by then.

[Max Stirner]

hofer 50,1

[Bojicat]

Hofer's consolidating his hold in the country-side. He's gained in stature, not lost it, since mid-April. He hasn't committed any gaffes. Popular reaction to his debate performances (in particular, the one last Sunday) has been very positive. He comes across as bright, energetic and very likable. VDB, however, comes across as soporific, disdainful, unfriendly, and elitist.  Without a personality one can latch on to, you lift the man away and all you've got is a place to go if you dislike Hofer. That's not enough to win on. VDB's hold on a couple of big cities (Vienna, Graz, et al.)and the formerly Griss-dominated suburbs is tenuous. Outside of these small, shrinking specks of green, however, he's surrounded by a sea of blue. I hear nothing positive about VDB among the people, except that, with some, he'll 'save us' from Hofer. That's just not a winning strategy.

As far as VDB is concerned, the proverb goes: The situation is hopeless, but not serious.

I see a Hofer landslide on May 22

Hofer: 61%
VDB:   39%

[Tender Branson]

A Hofer-landslide is likely yeah, especially if you consider the fact that Austria is a relatively rural country. Only 25-30% of the eligible voters are living in the big cities of Vienna, Graz, Linz, Salzburg, Innsbruck etc. and their suburbs.

And the rural areas will vote strongly for Hofer. Also, the big cities will have lower turnout than the rural areas, which is also benefitting Hofer.

But it will be more like 55-45, not above 60%.

[jaichind]

Hofer               52 %
Van der Bellen  48 %

Turnout will rise which in theory should be able to get Van der Bellen over the top but I suspect there is a swing away from Van der Bellen to Hofer since the election so Hofer wins.  If I had to predict the day after the first round I would have guessed Van der Bellen 52-48.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout will rise ...

I'm not so sure about that actually ... in fact, every Presidential election with a runoff so far had lower turnout in the 2nd round. But it's of course possible this time.

[jaichind]

Turnout will rise ...

I'm not so sure about that actually ... in fact, every Presidential election with a runoff so far had lower turnout in the 2nd round. But it's of course possible this time.

Yes.  But my view is that the prospect of Hofer winning should turn out latent center-left voters which did not turn out in the first round.  I might be totally wrong about this and the turnout patterns end up matching previous second rounds.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout will rise ...

I'm not so sure about that actually ... in fact, every Presidential election with a runoff so far had lower turnout in the 2nd round. But it's of course possible this time.

Yes.  But my view is that the prospect of Hofer winning should turn out latent center-left voters which did not turn out in the first round.  I might be totally wrong about this and the turnout patterns end up matching previous second rounds.

You might be right, after all it happened in the Vienna state election last year. Everyone talked about a close race and then center-leftist non-voters went to the polls.

I'd welcome higher turnout, I want at least 70% ...

[Tender Branson]

I have upgraded my ratings for VdB to 49.5% - because it looks like turnout could be strong in the big cities, giving him some extra boost.

I'm not ready yet to predict a VdB win, but I would not rule it out anymore ...

[Unimog]

51 vdB - 49 Hofer

with a record turnout....

[Tender Branson]

51 vdB - 49 Hofer

with a record turnout....

Nope. Austria has no mandatory voting anymore, like until the late-1980s.

Until the late 1980s, we had turnout between 90-97% in Presidential elections.

I hope turnout will be above 70% next Sunday, preferably as high as 75% - but that's nothing near record-turnout. The 2008 federal election for example had 79% turnout.

[jeron]

I'll predict a high turnout in Vienna and a narrow Van der Bellen victory 50.4-49.6.

[DavidB.]

Van der Bellen 50.2%
Hofer 49.8%

[Bojicat]

If there is record turn-out, it'll be almost entirely due to an intense enthusiasm for Hofer, not for VDB. In fact, the idea of a horde of VDB enthusiasts rushing to the polls to vote on May 22 would make a typical Austrian laugh out loud. The fellow generates as much enthusiasm as a cauliflower. As I said earlier, the only hope for a sudden 'surge' of support for VDB would be intense anti-Hofer feelings, and that's not happening. Hofer has actually built up, built up substantially, his likability. You'd be dreaming if you thought voting enthusiasm will narrow the gap between Hofer and VDB. Enthusiasm will actually WIDEN the gap in Hofer's favour.

Whether you like it or not, a Hofer landslide is in the works.

[Zinneke]

If there is record turn-out, it'll be almost entirely due to an intense enthusiasm for Hofer, not for VDB. In fact, the idea of a horde of VDB enthusiasts rushing to the polls to vote on May 22 would make a typical Austrian laugh out loud. The fellow generates as much enthusiasm as a cauliflower. As I said earlier, the only hope for a sudden 'surge' of support for VDB would be intense anti-Hofer feelings, and that's not happening. Hofer has actually built up, built up substantially, his likability. You'd be dreaming if you thought voting enthusiasm will narrow the gap between Hofer and VDB. Enthusiasm will actually WIDEN the gap in Hofer's favour.

Whether you like it or not, a Hofer landslide is in the works.

I dunno, I think people underestimate the power of small c conservatism in Europe, be it on the left or the right they make this same mistake. There is usually a loud, vocal minority, like in May 68, like in the French regionals with Front National, who say they want to bring down the establishment, and genuinely believe they have popular will behind them. Then there is a real silent majority who, while not particularly buying into any of the political parties, just want to come home every day from their mundane work and have their sh**t all in one place, their pension still intact and their predictable interest rates.

[Tender Branson]

If anything, turnout will go down now because centrist voters from Griss, SPÖ and ÖVP have no incentive anymore to vote for Hofer or VdB after their crappy debate performance.

Also, invalid ballots will spike. I guess more than 5% will invalidate their ballot ...