GOP target map

[Gass3268]

Yes, this map minus Florida is a big fear of mine.

Trump is an horrendous fit for Minnesota and Wisconsin.

[Gass3268]

Yes, this map minus Florida is a big fear of mine.

Trump is an horrendous fit for Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Minnesota is definitely the hardest lift for Trump of what they have given him there, but that's a Trump win even without MN or FL.  I'm not sure what to make of PA, because Trump should blow the ceiling off out west and in the Scranton area, but Clinton should also blow the ceiling off in the Gerlach/Meehan/Dent districts but underperform Obama a bit in Philadelphia proper.

He probably does well in west PA, but Scranton is just too Democratic. Obama won it by 27% in 2012. I imagine the map will look almost exactly like 2008 (minus Cambria and Elk to Trump).

[Gass3268]

Yes, this map minus Florida is a big fear of mine.

Trump is an horrendous fit for Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Minnesota is definitely the hardest lift for Trump of what they have given him there, but that's a Trump win even without MN or FL.  I'm not sure what to make of PA, because Trump should blow the ceiling off out west and in the Scranton area, but Clinton should also blow the ceiling off in the Gerlach/Meehan/Dent districts but underperform Obama a bit in Philadelphia proper.

He probably does well in west PA, but Scranton is just too Democratic. Obama won it by 27% in 2012. I imagine the map will look almost exactly like 2008 (minus Cambria and Elk to Trump).

I just feel like the whole PA-17 area of NE PA is East Kentucky in 2000 waiting to happen.  Clinton winning Scranton by only 5-10% and losing all of the surrounding counties would count as Trump blowing the ceiling off IMO.  Also, don't underestimate the impact of Biden, who is both from there and has some of Trump's demeanor in him.

I'm going to have to see it to believe it, but if Trump does that well there I think we also need to be on the lookout in the Youngstown, Ohio are.

[Gass3268]

Yes, this map minus Florida is a big fear of mine.

Trump is an horrendous fit for Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Minnesota is definitely the hardest lift for Trump of what they have given him there, but that's a Trump win even without MN or FL.  I'm not sure what to make of PA, because Trump should blow the ceiling off out west and in the Scranton area, but Clinton should also blow the ceiling off in the Gerlach/Meehan/Dent districts but underperform Obama a bit in Philadelphia proper.

He probably does well in west PA, but Scranton is just too Democratic. Obama won it by 27% in 2012. I imagine the map will look almost exactly like 2008 (minus Cambria and Elk to Trump).

I just feel like the whole PA-17 area of NE PA is East Kentucky in 2000 waiting to happen.  Clinton winning Scranton by only 5-10% and losing all of the surrounding counties would count as Trump blowing the ceiling off IMO.  Also, don't underestimate the impact of Biden, who is both from there and has some of Trump's demeanor in him.

I'm going to have to see it to believe it, but if Trump does that well there I think we also need to be on the lookout in the Youngstown, Ohio are.

We definitely should be. Of course, it could all happen under the radar where Clinton only gets Obama 2012 numbers in these areas while winning by 10 nationally, but I think the Trump trend will be very real.  Remember, Obama and Biden were actually able to tap into some of the proto-Trump jobs/infrastructure anger and swing some of these areas toward them in 2012.  

OH should be Trump's very best swing state, possibly better than even NC in a PVI sense.  Obama numbers aside, I'm actually more worried about MI and WI than PA or MN in a close race.  Getting better-than-Obama numbers in the Philadelphia and Minneapolis suburbs and in Pittsburgh proper (which is now more of a mini-Silicon Valley than it's former self) should be enough to counter whatever Trump can do in the rest of those states.  But there isn't obviously enough to counter it in MI or WI.  Walker and Snyder are much more traditional Republicans than Trump and both easily won. Better-than-Obama numbers the college towns just aren't enough if the rest of the state rebels because it just wants its jobs back.  

The last Marquette poll had Trump's favorablity rating in Wisconsin among all primary voters at like -48%. Clinton's was half of that at -23% and Obama was almost at +8%. That's going to be a tough hill to climb for Trump when you still have segments of local conservative talk radio still on the #NeverTrump bandwagon. Charles Sykes, the guy that blasted Trump to his face before the primary, is still very much anti-Trump. Also Wisconsin is too "nice" to really go for a guy like Trump.