How does TRUMP possibly win?

[RR1997]

What has to happen in order for Trump to become president?

I just don't see Trump winning. His absolute ceiling is a 2% loss. He has completely alienated minorities and educated, upscale whites. If we assume that he gets 10% of blacks and 20% of Hispanics/Asians, he will need 66% of the white vote (the percentage Reagan got in 1984) in order to barely win.

I know people say things like "There is still 6 months until the election. Anything could happen."

The polls were actually pretty accurate 6 months before the 2012 and 2008 elections.http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/obama_vs_romney_compared_to_obama_vs_mccain.html

I just can't see us electing a joke candidate like Trump. Trump has a 0.000001% chance of victory.

[Ronnie]

He doesn't.  The end.

[RI]

If we assume that he gets 10% of blacks and 20% of Hispanics/Asians, he will need 66% of the white vote (the percentage Reagan got in 1984) in order to barely win.

Trump will get much more than 20% among Asians first of all. But to answer your question, the mostly likely answer is that some external event will have to occur which shifts all demographics simultaneously such as a real Clinton scandal, major terrorist attack, or a China-originated recession.

[Nyvin]

I cannot see how Trump can possibly win in any scenario for the life of me.   

[Holmes]

None of this is likely to happen, but it is Trump's most plausible path IMO:

Trump/Webb 301 EV 43.0%
Clinton/Hickenlooper 227 EV 41.5%
Romney/Sandoval 10 EV 14.5%

I think Clinton could avoid even this scenario by picking a high energy VP like Warren, but it is what concerns me most as of today.

I don't see how having two conservatives on the ballot splits the vote for a Trump win but ok.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Looks like he needs a fair bit of work in Pennsylvania and Ohio.

Florida and Michigan are no certainties either.

Trump is going to need some extraordinary media attention which he will undoubtedly get to boost his African American and Hispanic numbers.

[Nyvin]

Trump is basically taking Romney's losing strategy on steroids....depending on the demographic group that's shrinking the fastest in the country (white working class),  while appearing out of touch (to put it nicely) to the vast majority of the remainder of the country.

To add to this "losing strat on steroids" plan...four years have passed since 2012 and that shrinking demographic hasn't done much besides shrink.  

So the people saying Trump is going to somehow win are basically saying the correct thing for Republicans to do from 2012 is alienate minorities, youth, and women "more" and depends even more heavily on old white males, and again this is when those groups (excluding women) have just gotten larger.

Not only is this crazy and stupid to think if it didn't work in 2012 it will in 2016....it has the potential to put the Republicans on a losing trajectory for the forseeable future by emboldening the kind of white working class primary voters that they're in charge of the party now and can always get "their candidate" nominated.

Will we see another "Trump" candidate in 2020?  Maybe 2024 again?   It kind of happened to the Democrats in the 80's...no reason to think it can't happen to them too.

[Senator-elect Spark]

A plausible map

Donald J. Trump- 284 EVS
Hillary Clinton- 254 EVS

[Ronnie]

Well, I absolutely did not think he was going to win the primaries when he announced last summer, so I guess I'll just step back and wait to see what happens. It honestly wouldn't surprise me if he surged after the convention and polls tightened.

I actually think the gap between Trump and Clinton will increase after the convention and in the months leading up to November.  Trump's horrific numbers among minorities are pretty much baked in at this point, while many people who are currently reluctant to support Clinton in polls because they consider her untrustworthy for whatever reason will come to their senses when confronted with the prospect of a Trump presidency.

[Meclazine for Israel]

The one thing that strikes me is that for Trump to win, it is going to be very close.

The possibility of Hillary thumping this home is much higher, but I cannot see Trump going down without one hell of a media spray.

I will be buying shares in popcorn companies. They are going to make a fortune.

[Ljube]

Easy. Romney + OH + FL + PA.

[Ronnie]

Easy. Romney + OH + FL + PA.

Explain how he wins Florida.

[Ljube]

Easy. Romney + OH + FL + PA.

Explain how he wins Florida.

What's there to explain? Six months to Election Day still. Romney vs Obama was close and Obama is stronger than Hillary and Trump is stronger than Romney, so Trump vs Hillary will be even closer.

[Ronnie]

Easy. Romney + OH + FL + PA.

Explain how he wins Florida.

What's there to explain? Six months to Election Day still. Romney vs Obama was close and Obama is stronger than Hillary and Trump is stronger than Romney, so Trump vs Hillary will be even closer.

Romney pretty much got as high as Republicans can go among whites in the state, and Hispanics (including many Cubans) are going to turn out in droves to vote against Trump.  The state might be more Democratic than the national average this cycle.

[Ljube]

Easy. Romney + OH + FL + PA.

Explain how he wins Florida.

What's there to explain? Six months to Election Day still. Romney vs Obama was close and Obama is stronger than Hillary and Trump is stronger than Romney, so Trump vs Hillary will be even closer.

Romney pretty much got as high as Republicans can go among whites in the state, and Hispanics (including many Cubans) are going to turn out in droves to vote against Trump.  The state might be more Democratic than the national average this cycle.

That's your theory. I think there is still room for the GOP to grow among whites.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

He doesn't.  The end.

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

If Romney runs, he's screwed. President Clinton it is.

[Badger]

None of this is likely to happen, but it is Trump's most plausible path IMO:

Trump/Webb 301 EV 43.0%
Clinton/Hickenlooper 227 EV 41.5%
Romney/Sandoval 10 EV 14.5%

I think Clinton could avoid even this scenario by picking a high energy VP like Warren, but it is what concerns me most as of today.

I don't see how having two conservatives on the ballot splits the vote for a Trump win but ok.

Think 1948/1968/1980.  Third parties don't always hurt the side we expect them to hurt. Wallace ended up hurting the most pro-civil rights candidate and Anderson hurt the populist Dem rather than the upscale conservative Rep.  And no one thought Truman would overcome both Thurmond and Wallace, but they ended up making him look like the reasonable middle.  It's more likely that this scenario would lead to a 1912 result, but Trump would love a free chance to run left.

No on several levels.

[MK]

I agree with the Hillary people FL is going to be a lost cause the Latino vote is fools gold.  
This is a realistic map.    Below If I were asked by Trump himself;

1. The base of the party has to stop the nonsense sure the Bushes are completely irreverent so is Lindsay Graham ,but the regular country club republicans have to somewhat get on board.

2. Stay on message,  its Trade, TRADE, TRADE, TRADE and highlight his resume as a builder. Remember Hillary has a real weakness in the rust belt that thing with the miners in WV was powerful where the guy confronted her. Get that dude in a campagain Ad it highlights Hillary as being a cold heartless pandering politician.

3. Hillary and the dems are going to attack Trump as being unfit and crazy reality TV show host who's not suited to be president.  Just watch that 1980 Carter vs Reagan debate for prep the 1984 debates too.  Trump is already great on TV so this could backfire on Hillary.


4.The minority issues.  Attacks are going to be playing up the race card  blacks are hoodwicked and will always be Vitim's no matter what republicans do so that vote is already gone.  Hispanics seem to vote on ONE issue which is they want open boarders, that is also gone ( Honestly I think that vote will be like the black vote in the next cycles).  Its the white working class blue collar vote that is still up for grabs. States like Mich, Ohio, and PA are filled with them and the usually vote Dem due to the republicans in elections past being the party of fat cats.  These same voters prob voted for Obama in 08.. in fact i know they mostly did.  This is the target voters needed. They have been completely abandoned by the Dems.

5.Reach out to Unions !!    I know its not republican but hell if your going to burn the house down you might as well do it right.  

6. Don't screw up the VP pick IMO Kasich all but locks up Ohio.  Christie actually would work if everybody else turns it down. He isn't going to win you NJ but hes good at going on the attack in those debates he seemed to be best at attacking Clinton.  Hes a safe pick if its the only option DONT do a Eagleton.

7. Woman's vote Hillary is holding them because of the "sexist" card is being used by her and the MSM.   It appears Trump employs and good bit of females at high levels in his company that should be highlighted.  The key issue were i feel Trump did this damage to the woman's vote is with Maegan Kelly.  It was stupid to even get into that fight with her over what?  This was when he lost the women's vote and rightfully so.   As i pointed out before he should do a interview with her this will help among Republican women.   The far left women will never vote trump anyway.

8.  Only attack the Clinton's with the Monica stuff when they try to go in the gutter at you. Never attack back with Monica stuff when attacked on real issues.  Voters tend to tune out when that happens.  In cleaver ways it can be used to being up the fact that Bill is a serial womanizer and i'm sure that Monica wasn't the only one he peckered in the whitehouse or Governors house for that matter.  Hard to be a champion of women when you enabled your husband .

[Torie]

Persuade voters that Trump was under an evil spell, and it has been broken by a successful exorcism, so that all that he said before is akin to the defense of temporary insanity.

[Ljube]

Persuade voters that Trump was under an evil spell, and it has been broken by a successful exorcism, so that all that he said before is akin to the defense of temporary insanity.

Voters have short memory anyway, Torie.

[Meclazine for Israel]

I agree with the Hillary people FL is going to be a lost cause the Latino vote is fools gold.  
This is a realistic map.    Below If I were asked by Trump himself;

1. The base of the party has to stop the nonsense sure the Bushes are completely irreverent so is Lindsay Graham ,but the regular country club republicans have to somewhat get on board.

2. Stay on message,  its Trade, TRADE, TRADE, TRADE and highlight his resume as a builder. Remember Hillary has a real weakness in the rust belt that thing with the miners in WV was powerful where the guy confronted her. Get that dude in a campagain Ad it highlights Hillary as being a cold heartless pandering politician.

3. Hillary and the dems are going to attack Trump as being unfit and crazy reality TV show host who's not suited to be president.  Just watch that 1980 Carter vs Reagan debate for prep the 1984 debates too.  Trump is already great on TV so this could backfire on Hillary.


4.The minority issues.  Attacks are going to be playing up the race card  blacks are hoodwicked and will always be Vitim's no matter what republicans do so that vote is already gone.  Hispanics seem to vote on ONE issue which is they want open boarders, that is also gone ( Honestly I think that vote will be like the black vote in the next cycles).  Its the white working class blue collar vote that is still up for grabs. States like Mich, Ohio, and PA are filled with them and the usually vote Dem due to the republicans in elections past being the party of fat cats.  These same voters prob voted for Obama in 08.. in fact i know they mostly did.  This is the target voters needed. They have been completely abandoned by the Dems.

5.Reach out to Unions !!    I know its not republican but hell if your going to burn the house down you might as well do it right.  

6. Don't screw up the VP pick IMO Kasich all but locks up Ohio.  Christie actually would work if everybody else turns it down. He isn't going to win you NJ but hes good at going on the attack in those debates he seemed to be best at attacking Clinton.  Hes a safe pick if its the only option DONT do a Eagleton.

7. Woman's vote Hillary is holding them because of the "sexist" card is being used by her and the MSM.   It appears Trump employs and good bit of females at high levels in his company that should be highlighted.  The key issue were i feel Trump did this damage to the woman's vote is with Maegan Kelly.  It was stupid to even get into that fight with her over what?  This was when he lost the women's vote and rightfully so.   As i pointed out before he should do a interview with her this will help among Republican women.   The far left women will never vote trump anyway.

8.  Only attack the Clinton's with the Monica stuff when they try to go in the gutter at you. Never attack back with Monica stuff when attacked on real issues.  Voters tend to tune out when that happens.  In cleaver ways it can be used to being up the fact that Bill is a serial womanizer and i'm sure that Monica wasn't the only one he peckered in the whitehouse or Governors house for that matter.  Hard to be a champion of women when you enabled your husband .

Interesting points.

I dont think the hispanic and black votes are gone.

Donald still got a huge female voter base in the final primaries despite his repugnance.

I do think you are right on trade. People will warm to Trump if thet see he will fix the basic economic factors plainly visible to your average American.

[President Johnson]

He doesn't.  The end.

Like he didn't have a chance to win the nomination?

[LLR]

Donald Trump (R-NY)/Scott Walker (R-WI): 272 EVs, 50.2%
Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Elizabeth Warren (D-MA): 266 EVs, 49%

Not likely, but possible. A little unorthodox, but maybe Hillary focuses on courting hispanics and women so much that she loses whites nearly 2-1.
Also the Clinton/Warren likely disaster is amplified when Trump chooses "reasonable" Walker, enabling him to win WI, MN, and MI by razor-thin margins.

[AmericanNation]

Donald Trump (R-NY)/Scott Walker (R-WI): 272 EVs, 50.2%
Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Elizabeth Warren (D-MA): 266 EVs, 49%

Not likely, but possible. A little unorthodox, but maybe Hillary focuses on courting hispanics and women so much that she loses whites nearly 2-1.
Also the Clinton/Warren likely disaster is amplified when Trump chooses "reasonable" Walker, enabling him to win WI, MN, and MI by razor-thin margins.

This Rust Belt thing is probably going to happen, it has been a long time coming and Trump knows it.  If Hillary wins, 2018 will be the biggest midterm route in history, which is amazing considering we just came off 2010 & 2014.