We're assuming uniform swing. I think Trump might have relative strength in the northeast, and a fairly high ceiling. The Republicans there are far more united behind him than those in the Midwest or West.
I'm also guessing there's a bit of a dead cat bounce going on in all of the extremely red or blue states. 2012 was about as polarizing an election as we have seen in terms of number of states decided by single digits. A state that already votes 60+% for one party consistently probably isn't going to swing just because of the individual candidates on the ballot.
