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| | | | |-+  FL/OH/PA Quinnipiac: Close races everywhere (Trump +4 in OH, Clinton +1 in FL/PA
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Author Topic: FL/OH/PA Quinnipiac: Close races everywhere (Trump +4 in OH, Clinton +1 in FL/PA  (Read 4920 times)
Joni Ernst 20∞
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« on: May 10, 2016, 05:00:53 am »

Florida

Hillary Clinton (D): 43%
Donald Trump (R): 42%

Ohio

Donald Trump (R): 43%
Hillary Clinton (D): 39%

Pennsylvania

Hillary Clinton (D): 43%
Donald Trump (R): 42%

https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2345
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #1 on: May 10, 2016, 05:05:12 am »

Sanders vs. Trump:

Florida

Sanders (D): 44%
Trump (R): 42%

Ohio

Sanders (D): 43%
Trump (R): 41%

Pennsylvania

Sanders (D): 47%
Trump (R): 41%
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Doctor Imperialism
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« Reply #2 on: May 10, 2016, 05:39:53 am »

hello darkness my old friend
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standwrand
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« Reply #3 on: May 10, 2016, 05:53:49 am »

but I thought the cubans would make FL D+10
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Doctor Imperialism
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« Reply #4 on: May 10, 2016, 05:59:13 am »

Something that someone on another forum pointed out - comparing these numbers to Romney's, Trump has actually improved among non-whites and done worse among whites. What the hell?

Quote
Florida:
White Voters: -4%
Non-White Voters: +4%

Ohio
White Voters: +1%
Non-White Voters: +9%

Pennsylvania
White Voters: -2%
Non-White Voters: +15%
« Last Edit: May 10, 2016, 06:01:26 am by Doctor Imperialism »Logged

The Voice of America
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« Reply #5 on: May 10, 2016, 06:33:04 am »

Those unfavorable numbers explain it all. Trump is more favorable in Ohio than Hillary is. That makes the difference.
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JRoby
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« Reply #6 on: May 10, 2016, 06:45:35 am »

If Trump wins in 2016, this is why:

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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #7 on: May 10, 2016, 07:03:58 am »

So is Quinnipiac right and the electorate will be whiter this year?
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #8 on: May 10, 2016, 07:06:58 am »

So is Quinnipiac right and the electorate will be whiter this year?

No one besides Q has Hillary more unfavorable or a whiter electorate.
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jfern
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« Reply #9 on: May 10, 2016, 07:12:04 am »

Those unfavorable numbers explain it all. Trump is more favorable in Ohio than Hillary is. That makes the difference.

Trump also has better favorables that Hillary in PA. They have the same exact numbers in FL. Of course Bernie's is much better than both of theirs.

Notice that Trump has solid leads when asked about the economy, and also leads on terrorism in all 3 states. Hillary is such a terrible candidate.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #10 on: May 10, 2016, 07:16:08 am »

Never change QU
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #11 on: May 10, 2016, 07:17:56 am »

Those unfavorable numbers explain it all. Trump is more favorable in Ohio than Hillary is. That makes the difference.

Trump also has better favorables that Hillary in PA. They have the same exact numbers in FL. Of course Bernie's is much better than both of theirs.

Notice that Trump has solid leads when asked about the economy, and also leads on terrorism in all 3 states. Hillary is such a terrible candidate.

Bernie is just like Kasich, hes well liked because theres no way hes the nominee. If the PPP poll from last night is any indication though, even thats changing(the well liked part).
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jfern
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« Reply #12 on: May 10, 2016, 07:19:58 am »

Those unfavorable numbers explain it all. Trump is more favorable in Ohio than Hillary is. That makes the difference.

Trump also has better favorables that Hillary in PA. They have the same exact numbers in FL. Of course Bernie's is much better than both of theirs.

Notice that Trump has solid leads when asked about the economy, and also leads on terrorism in all 3 states. Hillary is such a terrible candidate.

Bernie is just like Kasich, hes well liked because theres no way hes the nominee. If the PPP poll from last night is any indication though, even thats changing(the well liked part).

That's a nonsense argument. 2012 Romney polled much better in the general election than any of his primary opponents.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #13 on: May 10, 2016, 07:23:48 am »

Those unfavorable numbers explain it all. Trump is more favorable in Ohio than Hillary is. That makes the difference.

Trump also has better favorables that Hillary in PA. They have the same exact numbers in FL. Of course Bernie's is much better than both of theirs.

Notice that Trump has solid leads when asked about the economy, and also leads on terrorism in all 3 states. Hillary is such a terrible candidate.

Bernie is just like Kasich, hes well liked because theres no way hes the nominee. If the PPP poll from last night is any indication though, even thats changing(the well liked part).

That's a nonsense argument. 2012 Romney polled much better in the general election than any of his primary opponents.

Its not hard to outpoll Santorum.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #14 on: May 10, 2016, 07:30:09 am »

Quinnipiac has given some pretty horrible numbers for Clinton in their previous polls of these states.  I wouldn't look to far into this, particularly since recent polls in all 3 states contradict this.
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NHI
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« Reply #15 on: May 10, 2016, 07:39:50 am »

Those unfavorable numbers explain it all. Trump is more favorable in Ohio than Hillary is. That makes the difference.

Trump also has better favorables that Hillary in PA. They have the same exact numbers in FL. Of course Bernie's is much better than both of theirs.

Notice that Trump has solid leads when asked about the economy, and also leads on terrorism in all 3 states. Hillary is such a terrible candidate.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #16 on: May 10, 2016, 08:16:45 am »

That's not surprising at all.

Hillary is only ahead of Trump by about 4-7% nationally (RCP average, PPP poll).

Even in 2008, when Obama won by 7 nationally, FL and OH were relatively close. PA is also a good fit for Trump and trends slightly Republican recently.

Hillary is in for a tough fight in several swing states.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #17 on: May 10, 2016, 08:24:04 am »

The FL poll is very interesting due to CO and Latino vote. Not surprised about OH due to Bernie Sanders campaigning on the Coal issue. Bernie Sanders isn't gonna be nominated.
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F_S_USATN
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« Reply #18 on: May 10, 2016, 08:32:30 am »

Wasn't it Q where Romney only trailed once in FL and OH all cycle?
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #19 on: May 10, 2016, 08:43:13 am »

If Clinton really is up 6-7 points like the national polling averages suggest, there's almost no way these can be the correct numbers in these states.  Perhaps it's just that Trump really is very strong in specifically OH/PA, but is still down by 6-7 nationally by performing poorly elsewhere.  I'd still have to see Pennsylvania vote 5 points to the right of country (and Ohio 10 points!) to believe it though.

OTOH, Trump may be receiving a temporary bounce from wrapping up his nomination while Hillary is still nominally in a race against Bernie.  We'll need more polls to know for sure.

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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #20 on: May 10, 2016, 08:53:55 am »

Just for quick reference

Q-Poll:
31%D
11% Af Am
15% Hisp
27% 65+

2012 Fl Exits:
35% D
13% Af Am
17% Hisp
24% 65+

This suggests the electorate will be whiter, older, and more conservative... 4 years worth of Hispanic population growth in FL is apparently going to result in lower turnout. YMMV.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #21 on: May 10, 2016, 08:59:23 am »

Also... apparently this:

https://twitter.com/nickgourevitch/status/730029332610093056

FWIW, Quinnipiac poll always down-weights their college educated voters by a significant margin.
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Elizabeth Warren 2020
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #22 on: May 10, 2016, 09:17:37 am »

Trump is still down in VA & WI.
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The Voice of America
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« Reply #23 on: May 10, 2016, 09:19:10 am »

LOL @ the Democrat freakout in this thread. It's just a May poll, guys.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #24 on: May 10, 2016, 09:23:53 am »

Dont buy OH poll due to the fact TRUMP has trailed in everyone so far. And Clinton isn't at 39%. She's ahead in Pa
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