FL/OH/PA Quinnipiac: Close races everywhere (Trump +4 in OH, Clinton +1 in FL/PA

[Shadows]

Ohio is gonna go red especially when Kasich campaigns hard or is given a VP slot.

So Romney + Ohio = 224.

I think Trump has a reasonable chance at Florida, it may go Republican this year, even with the bad performance among hispanics as Trump & GOP could pull ahead big among whites vs Clinton.

So if he can pull Florida, that is 224 + 29 = 255.

Trump needs 15, he could win PA & win. He could win MI & win. He could win WI + IA & win.

I don't see Colorado & Nevada in play, maybe NH, but looks unlikely.

Trump's past to the presidency goes through must win states of OH & Florida & some win in the rust belt states. He has to pull something off.

Ofcourse if he loses NC, it gets tougher & then he has to pull Virginia or Michigan.

I think Trump will end @ 255 at best, I find it hard to see Trump winning MI, WI or PA

[HAnnA MArin County]

Those unfavorable numbers explain it all. Trump is more favorable in Ohio than Hillary is. That makes the difference.

Trump also has better favorables that Hillary in PA. They have the same exact numbers in FL. Of course Bernie's is much better than both of theirs.

Notice that Trump has solid leads when asked about the economy, and also leads on terrorism in all 3 states. Hillary is such a terrible candidate.

We know. You say that in 99.99 percent of your posts on here. I think we get the picture now.

Jfern's follies aside, Trump is just getting a bounce after essentially clinching the nomination and Hillary has kind of been incognito lately. Not freaking out about these numbers at all.

[Eraserhead]

The freakouts when pollsters switch over to LVs should be interesting.

[JRP1994]

B-b-b-b-b-b-b-ut muh Clinton landslide!

[Matty]

LMAO at the unskewing already happening

[Fusionmunster]

LMAO at the unskewing already happening

Shove it...

Its a forum where we analyse polls. What are we supposed to do, take the numbers at face value?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

B-b-b-b-b-b-b-ut muh Clinton landslide!

.


We are a 272/266 polarized nation but TRUMP is the one GOPer to lose again like Romney did in 12.  We still have the Benghazi issue

[BuckeyeNut]

Ohio is gonna go red especially when Kasich campaigns hard or is given a VP slot.

lol to either of those things happening. Portman's going to be Trump's biggest surrogate out here, and he's skipping the damn convention.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Pollsters need to start pushing people harder to make a choice, this both candidates below 45% nonsense is getting ridiculous.

[JRP1994]

Pollsters need to start pushing people harder to make a choice, this both candidates below 45% nonsense is getting ridiculous.

Both candidates about as popular as a burning dumpster. This isn't surprising.

[Comrade Funk]

People hate her. Can't believe the establishment just let her walk unopposed barring a 72 year old socialist. Biden would be destroying Trump, but Hillary is such a weak candidate she might lose to this ape. Still don't think she will, but people believe she is fake. Sorry Hillary supporters, but that's the perception she has.

I know people laugh at it, but she has a major problem with white working class voters. Not saying she is losing MI, WI, and PA, but it is a problem the Democratic Party has to fix.

[JRP1994]

People hate her. Can't believe the establishment just let her walk unopposed barring a 72 year old socialist. Biden would be destroying Trump, but Hillary is such a weak candidate she might lose to this ape. Still don't think she will, but people believe she is fake. Sorry Hillary supporters, but that's the perception she has.

I know people laugh at it, but she has a major problem with white working class voters. Not saying she is losing MI, WI, and PA, but it is a problem the Democratic Party has to fix.

Hillary just can't believe that after all she's done for us, after all the sleepless nights of dining with heads of state and flying around the world, after being "dead broke" in the early 2000s, after accomplishing virtually nothing substantive as Secretary of State, after either being wrong or silent about almost ever policy blunder of the 1990s and many in the 2000s, that people aren't ready to crown her as President.

How the Republicans managed to nominate someone as flawed as Trump to run against her is still shocking.

[bumpercrop]

Quinnijunk again. IGNORE!

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Is this the same Quinnipiac that said Romney would win? Why yes, it is.

[jaichind]

Is this the same Quinnipiac that said Romney would win? Why yes, it is.

Not sure what you are talking about.  The last Quinnipiac national poll in 2012 was in late Sept 2012 where it had Obama ahead 49-45.  The last  Quinnipiac  poll in Ohio in 2012 was in late Oct 2012 where it had Obama ahead 50-45.  Same for VA where it had Obama ahead 49-47, and FL where it had Obama ahead 48-47 and CO where it had Romney 48-47. 

Other than CO  Quinnipiac seems to have nailed 2012.

[Ljube]

The freakouts when pollsters switch over to LVs should be interesting.

[publicunofficial]

Quinnipac is clearly aiming for Horserace results. That's the only way the media pays attention to your polling company.

[Crumpets]

So do these polls (meaning all Florida polls) take into account the recent influx of Puerto Ricans into the state?

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Well, Trump is rallying the party. This was bound to happen with Sanders still in the race stoking Hillary's unfavourables.

[Virginiá]

So do these polls (meaning all Florida polls) take into account the recent influx of Puerto Ricans into the state?

Well, they have a whiter electorate than 2012 everywhere, which is suspect but plausible if Trump supercharges turnout with downscale white men.

I don't really understand how that is possible. Demographic changes are much more well-studied than this poll. They can't know what the final turnout will really look like, but the demographic makeup of the eligible voter electorate is well-understood. Even with higher white voter turnout this year, to be whiter than 2012 would take a BIG increase in white turnout - Something they cannot predict right now.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Note the high level of undecideds.

[The Other Castro]

From Nate Cohn:

Florida reg. voters:
Quinnipiac: 69W, 11B, 15H
Voter File: 65.7W, 13.3B, 14.8H
CPS 2014: 64.3W, 15.2B, 17.9H

[President Johnson]

All the media told us that TRUMP would lose....

[The Other Castro]

Weird, I made a post but it's not showing up here even though I can see it in my posts. Anyway, I had written: From Nate Cohn:

Florida reg. voters:
Quinnipiac: 69W, 11B, 15H
Voter File: 65.7W, 13.3B, 14.8H
CPS 2014: 64.3W, 15.2B, 17.9H

[Xing]

Considering Quinnipiac's earlier results (especially PA), these actually aren't that bad for Clinton. Either way, Little Donny is probably getting a bounce right now, and I expect Hillary to get one in June, after the dust has settled a bit.