So do these polls (meaning all Florida polls) take into account the recent influx of Puerto Ricans into the state?
Well, they have a whiter electorate than 2012 everywhere, which is suspect but plausible if Trump supercharges turnout with downscale white men.
I don't really understand how that is possible. Demographic changes are much more well-studied than this poll. They can't know what the final turnout will really look like, but the demographic makeup of the eligible voter electorate is well-understood. Even with higher white voter turnout this year, to be whiter than 2012 would take a BIG increase in white turnout - Something they cannot predict right now.
The increase by 2-3 points of the non-white share of voters in Presidential elections since 1992 has been quite consistent. It's something that has transcended individual elections. I know Trump is a unique candidate, and perhaps he is energizing racist and blue-collar whites, but he's also energizing Latinos and other minority groups. I think those factors will be a wash, and we'll see another 2-3 point increase.
