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Author Topic: OR- OPB/DHM Research: Clinton +11  (Read 1318 times)
Fargobison
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« on: May 10, 2016, 05:48:54 pm »

Clinton 43
Trump 32

http://www.opb.org/news/series/election-2016/bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-oregon-poll/
« Last Edit: May 10, 2016, 05:52:04 pm by Fargobison »Logged
marty
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« Reply #1 on: May 10, 2016, 05:52:11 pm »

obama won by 16 in 2008 and 13 in 2012.

11 is underwhelming.
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #2 on: May 10, 2016, 05:53:03 pm »

It's impossible to take any poll with more than 20% undecided seriously.
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Mehmentum
Icefire9
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« Reply #3 on: May 10, 2016, 06:10:46 pm »

Lol, they have Clinton leading Sanders by more in the primary than they have her leading Trump in the general.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #4 on: May 10, 2016, 06:17:49 pm »

This should be a Trump > Generic R state- overwhelmingly white, culturally blue, and with more residual WWC Dem support than most of the country.  Want to see WA soon.

Not really. Trump has no appeal to white voters in this part of the country who aren't already voting exclusively Republican. He might even turn off some Republican voters in Eastern OR. Clinton will almost certainly win by more than this.
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JRP1994
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« Reply #5 on: May 10, 2016, 08:16:19 pm »

Oregon is an elastic state, but this is underwhelming for Clinton.
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Young Texan
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« Reply #6 on: May 10, 2016, 10:10:38 pm »

I think Trump can appeal to white voters across the state and moderate certain positions to be able to take OR. Hillary Clinton is a weak GE candidate and Trump would be a fool not to make a play for the state in November.
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #7 on: May 10, 2016, 10:22:22 pm »

I think Trump can appeal to white voters across the state and moderate certain positions to be able to take OR. Hillary Clinton is a weak GE candidate and Trump would be a fool not to make a play for the state in November.

I told you so!

Seriously, though: lolno
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xingkerui
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« Reply #8 on: May 10, 2016, 10:34:17 pm »

Oregon is an inelastic state, but this is underwhelming for Clinton.

FTFY

I think Trump can appeal to white voters across the state and moderate certain positions to be able to take OR. Hillary Clinton is a weak GE candidate and Trump would be a fool not to make a play for the state in November.

I welcome Trump to waste as much time and money in OR as he pleases. White voters in the Pacific Northwest are not like white voters in WV. Most voters here are either very liberal or very conservative (those two groups are not even in number, though), and as I said, Trump is more likely to alienate very conservative voters than he is to appeal to very liberal voters. The few moderate voters in OR wouldn't be enough for Trump even if they voted for him, and they won't.
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Mallow
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« Reply #9 on: May 10, 2016, 10:57:19 pm »

An 11% margin is definitely well below what I'd expect in Oregon (19%), but...

It's impossible to take any poll with more than 20% undecided seriously.

... this.
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Animation of 1964-2012 presidential margin by state, adjusted by US margin

Oregonian grad student living in PA.

I support both Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton.
#WalkAwayFromDesantis
Zyzz
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« Reply #10 on: May 11, 2016, 03:56:08 pm »

obama won by 16 in 2008 and 13 in 2012.

11 is underwhelming.

Obama was much stronger with the white Liberal activist types that dominate Oregon than Hillary. Obama  won the Oregon primary big time against Hillary in the 08 primary and Bernie will have a similar type of big win. Obama also had the Western appeal that Hillary does not have. Hillary does better in the east coast states with a lot of minorities.
« Last Edit: May 11, 2016, 05:11:03 pm by Zyzz »Logged

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