OR- OPB/DHM Research: Clinton +11 (user search)
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  OR- OPB/DHM Research: Clinton +11 (search mode)
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Author Topic: OR- OPB/DHM Research: Clinton +11  (Read 2271 times)
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« on: May 10, 2016, 06:17:49 PM »

This should be a Trump > Generic R state- overwhelmingly white, culturally blue, and with more residual WWC Dem support than most of the country.  Want to see WA soon.

Not really. Trump has no appeal to white voters in this part of the country who aren't already voting exclusively Republican. He might even turn off some Republican voters in Eastern OR. Clinton will almost certainly win by more than this.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #1 on: May 10, 2016, 10:34:17 PM »

Oregon is an inelastic state, but this is underwhelming for Clinton.

FTFY

I think Trump can appeal to white voters across the state and moderate certain positions to be able to take OR. Hillary Clinton is a weak GE candidate and Trump would be a fool not to make a play for the state in November.

I welcome Trump to waste as much time and money in OR as he pleases. White voters in the Pacific Northwest are not like white voters in WV. Most voters here are either very liberal or very conservative (those two groups are not even in number, though), and as I said, Trump is more likely to alienate very conservative voters than he is to appeal to very liberal voters. The few moderate voters in OR wouldn't be enough for Trump even if they voted for him, and they won't.
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