GA Abt SBRI AJC: Trump 47 Clinton 44, Sanders 47 Trump 42

[HillOfANight]

Nathan Deal actually did relatively well with black voters in 2014.

http://www.cnn.com/election/2014/results/state/GA/governor/
Nathan got 10% of the black vote

http://www.cnn.com/election/2014/results/state/GA/senate/
While in the Senate, Perdue got just 7%.

Nathan Deal did black outreach, working with Ludacris, putting black people in his ads, touting his work with black schools, etc. GOP getting 10% of the black vote vs 5% is a big difference with the inflexible white voters.

[Adam Griffin]

Nathan Deal actually did relatively well with black voters in 2014.

http://www.cnn.com/election/2014/results/state/GA/governor/
Nathan got 10% of the black vote

http://www.cnn.com/election/2014/results/state/GA/senate/
While in the Senate, Perdue got just 7%.

Nathan Deal did black outreach, working with Ludacris, putting black people in his ads, touting his work with black schools, etc. GOP getting 10% of the black vote vs 5% is a big difference with the inflexible white voters.

That's actually not impressive at all: that's the baseline. Virtually every Democratic statewide/federal candidate for office in Georgia in recent years (who isn't named Obama) where we've had exit polling has pulled the magic 89-90% of blacks. Even when it comes to down-ballot statewide candidates where we don't have exit polling, this appears to be true based on calculations I've done on 2010/2014 races that focus on the "path of least resistance" in terms of support and demographics. It's quite, quite consistent.

The variable from election to election in Georgia is the white vote, which can bounce around anywhere from 15-16% (in those down-ballot statewide races with black candidates) to 23-24% (for top-ticket statewide/presidential races with white candidates).

The fact that Perdue only got 7% is embarrassing, assuming, you know, that it's not just an anomaly within the margin of error of the exit poll.

[Adam Griffin]

^^^ The last statewide candidate to do "well" with black voters in Georgia was Sonny Perdue in his re-election; exit polls say that he got 17% of the black vote (which based on the discrepancy in racial turnout between the exit polls and actual SoS recorded turnout, was probably a couple of points lower than that in actuality).

Mark Taylor (D) only got 81%.

[Badger]

Time for more of my patented analysis. Assuming this poll's demographics are even across all states and Trump does win Georgia by 3%, then using RCP's and 538's demographic calculators I get this result:

Hillary Clinton/Julian Castro: 396, 54.5%
Donald Trump/Newt Gingrich: 142, 44.6%

Clinton won Texas by 0.1% and Arizona by 0.4%. Trump won Indiana by 3.5% and Georgia by 2.9%.

What happens in NE-2?

[Wells]

Time for more of my patented analysis. Assuming this poll's demographics are even across all states and Trump does win Georgia by 3%, then using RCP's and 538's demographic calculators I get this result:

Hillary Clinton/Julian Castro: 396, 54.5%
Donald Trump/Newt Gingrich: 142, 44.6%

Clinton won Texas by 0.1% and Arizona by 0.4%. Trump won Indiana by 3.5% and Georgia by 2.9%.

What happens in NE-2?

Trump won by a decent margin in Nebraska, so I assumed that it wouldn't go for Clinton.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Sanders is even doing better here? Are there any states where Sanders doesn't do better than Clinton these days?

I would have though MS and AL, but with an 8 point difference here in GA that seems to rule that out. DC is probably the only remaining possibility. I know it would be devastating if Bernie struggled to break 90% there.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I think Trump's margin will be narrow in GA even if he wins. I expect 3%-4% simply because of demographics unless he can push up his black vote percentage in the state and there are ways he can do that, ways that another Republican wouldn't. I expect him to try these things, but I don't expect him to do so in GA in terms of paid media. Now spillover and of course free media/internet might spill over into it from other targetted areas but regardless.

I agree Trump is a bad fit for the South Atlantic and it is trending Democratic, as is MS. However, I think Trump is going to win GA and NC as well as MS, TX and AZ. One thing is Clinton is a terrible candidate as well.

In NC, immigration and trade play and play well. The Hispanic vote is not large enough to make an impact just yet and Clintonistas have always been boned in NC because of NAFTA. Richard Burr is a Senator today partially because he ran an ad linking Bowles to Clinton and Clinton to NAFTA. Both McCrory and Perdue pandered substantially on the immigration issue, to the right in 2008. First McCrory and then Perdue coopted him in the closing days. Also there was the Tobacco issue and the way Clinton handled it, which may not be at play anymore but is credited with moving the state towards the Republicans in the late Clinton and early Bush years. So there is the history, and three key issues that make Clinton a bad fit for the state.

One big concern is that the State Legislature is nuking the GOP with young voters on this transgender issue and Trump is on the right side of that issue for them so hopefully he is not impacted by their actions. Until now I thought McCrory would win, I am skeptical now. Of course I thought Tillis was DOA and the wave swept him in, so I could be wrong.

[dspNY]

I think the Trump Clinton numbers are close to right. However, after all the unflattering stuff Sanders said about the South, there is no way he leads Trump in any Southern state with the possible exception of Virginia