GA 20/20 insight: Clinton 43 Trump 45

[HillOfANight]

https://cmgajcpolitics.files.wordpress.com/2016/05/ga20bg2056220may20freq.pdf
http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/05/12/jolt-5-12/ga%20bg%20562%20may%20freq/
http://bettergeorgia.org/2016/05/12/new-georgia-poll-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-and-nathan-deal/

Clinton is winning moderates by a 21 point margin – 55% to 34%.

59% of women surveyed have an unfavorable view of the GOP standard bearer.
We found that 24% of conservatives and 62% of moderates have an unfavorable view of Trump.

Young people, meanwhile, are signaling support for Clinton over Trump by a similar margin, 52 % to 33%.

Also very interesting #s for Nathan Deal. He's made some bold moves for a GOP governor, refusing to cave into the right wing. 51% support him for vetoing a religious liberty bill vs 34% that disagree. 64% agree with him about vetoing campus carry vs 29% that disagree.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

When is the last time a democrat won GA?

[MT Treasurer]

Most undecideds will probably end up supporting Trump. GA is Lean/Likely R. Clinton's ceiling there is probably 46%.

When is the last time a democrat won GA?

Carter in 1980. Clinton would have lost it without Perot in 1992.

[Virginiá]

When is the last time a democrat won GA?

Clinton, 1992. He lost it by like 2 pts in 1996.

[swf541]

Never heard of this pollster, though it does seem Georgia may be close

[HillOfANight]

When is the last time a democrat won GA?

Indiana 1964, Virginia 1964, North Carolina 1968 all before 2008.

That Clinton is this close this early is troubling for Trump.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ga/georgia_mccain_vs_obama-596.html
In the equivalent period during 2008, McCain was up 10-14 points and ended up winning by 5.

[MT Treasurer]

That Clinton is this close this early is troubling for Trump.

Trump seems to have a problem in many Southeastern states (VA/NC/GA/MS). Wouldn't be surprised if the entire Sunbelt trends Democratic in 2016. That being said, polls also showed Nunn and Perdue tied in 2014.

[HillOfANight]

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2014-georgia-senate-perdue-vs-nunn
They did, but after a barrage of ads tying her to Obama in the last weeks, the bubba vote won out.

[MT Treasurer]

https://www.youtube.com/user/bettergeorgiavideos
http://bettergeorgia.org/

Actually, BetterGeorgia is a very liberal/progressive organization that is focusing on turning GA blue. Take this poll with a grain of salt.

[pbrower2a]

About the same as Landmark.

Donald Trump should be up by more than the margin of error in Georgia  if he is to have a chance in a nationwide election.  The state was Obama's second-closest loss, but it really wasn't in contention. This poll is consistent with Hillary Clinton winning North Carolina, a state that Donald Trump absolutely must win if he is to become President. .   

[RJEvans]

The Clinton campaign needs to put money in the state and start early. Clinton SuperPACs should get in the game as well. If Trump is going to make OH and PA competitive, she should make GA competitive.

[Ebsy]

The Clinton campaign needs to put money in the state and start early. Clinton SuperPACs should get in the game as well. If Trump is going to make OH and PA competitive, she should make GA competitive.

Some early ground game investment in Georgia could pay off big time for relatively little risk.

[HillOfANight]

http://www.atlantaga.gov/index.aspx?recordid=3590&page=672

Don't forget that Kasim Reed and Bill Clinton announced that Atlanta was chosen to host the 2016 Clinton Global Initiative America.

Kasim scolded Michelle Nunn's team for running a moderate campaign, rather than trying to invest in a ground game to turnout voters in the black belt (neglected southeast GA).

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2014/11/14/kasim-reed-responds-to-negative-robo-call-with-twitter-torrent/

Arizona is probably safer to invest in the end, Obama probably did better here than most Democrats due to the black vote obviously, but the early signs are good.

[Virginiá]

The Clinton campaign needs to put money in the state and start early. Clinton SuperPACs should get in the game as well. If Trump is going to make OH and PA competitive, she should make GA competitive.

Some early ground game investment in Georgia could pay off big time for relatively little risk.

Georgia and Arizona would be good investment targets this cycle, if only to soften them up for 2020+. Could help downballot races as well.

Though, I still think Virginia, North Carolina and Florida would be very good states to pour massive resources into. All of them have pro-Democratic trends at the presidential level (if not state as well) and all of them are super critical to Republican electoral prospects right now. Taking those states off the map for the GOP could imperil their presidential prospects for over a decade, or until they reorganize / reform their party enough to begin a real coup d'état on the Great Lakes states

What a great time to be a Democrat. Critical Republican states are trending Democratic far faster than any blue => to => red states.

[Kingpoleon]

When is the last time a democrat won GA?

Indiana 1964, Virginia 1964, North Carolina 1968 all before 2008.

That Clinton is this close this early is troubling for Trump.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ga/georgia_mccain_vs_obama-596.html
In the equivalent period during 2008, McCain was up 10-14 points and ended up winning by 5.

So if George Bush becomes President and has a recession in September, expect Trump to lose by 3-7.

[mds32]

Probably a 3-4 Trump win in the end I think.

[Ebsy]

Clinton is consistently polling better than Obama did against Romney in 2008.

[Xing]

I don't expect GA to flip, but if it ends up this close, we've got a landslide or near landslide on our hands.

[Adam Griffin]

A lot of people on Atlas keep adhering to the notion that "if [Democrat] wins Georgia, then it's a massive wave election" or that a close election in Georgia is forever pegged to a particular margin from 2008. Georgia is changing rapidly. Just because it wasn't necessarily felt heavily in 2012 doesn't change that.

For those who want to peg it to 2008, here's a valuable observation: based on the likely electoral composition in 2016, Clinton would win GA with 51% of the vote if she were to perform the same as Obama did among each group in the state in 2008. That's four additional points of potential Democratic demographic improvement over eight years.

And that isn't among demographics in general (i.e.: lots of Hispanics who make the state look good on paper but who don't vote) - that's actual electoral shift. There aren't a lot of states where you can say that.

[HillOfANight]

He did worse here in 2012 than 2008 though. 2008 was a special historic year that's not going to be replicated.

[Gass3268]

He did worse here in 2012 than 2008 though. 2008 was a special historic year that's not going to be replicated.

It still trended Dem.

[Adam Griffin]

Does this one get entered or not (as well as the new one from today)?

[Badger]

A lot of people on Atlas keep adhering to the notion that "if [Democrat] wins Georgia, then it's a massive wave election" or that a close election in Georgia is forever pegged to a particular margin from 2008. Georgia is changing rapidly. Just because it wasn't necessarily felt heavily in 2012 doesn't change that.

For those who want to peg it to 2008, here's a valuable observation: based on the likely electoral composition in 2016, Clinton would win GA with 51% of the vote if she were to perform the same as Obama did among each group in the state in 2008. That's four additional points of potential Democratic demographic improvement over eight years.

And that isn't among demographics in general (i.e.: lots of Hispanics who make the state look good on paper but who don't vote) - that's actual electoral shift. There aren't a lot of states where you can say that.

Does anyone expect Clinton to perform as well among blacks as Obama, particularly regarding turnout?

[Adam Griffin]

A lot of people on Atlas keep adhering to the notion that "if [Democrat] wins Georgia, then it's a massive wave election" or that a close election in Georgia is forever pegged to a particular margin from 2008. Georgia is changing rapidly. Just because it wasn't necessarily felt heavily in 2012 doesn't change that.

For those who want to peg it to 2008, here's a valuable observation: based on the likely electoral composition in 2016, Clinton would win GA with 51% of the vote if she were to perform the same as Obama did among each group in the state in 2008. That's four additional points of potential Democratic demographic improvement over eight years.

And that isn't among demographics in general (i.e.: lots of Hispanics who make the state look good on paper but who don't vote) - that's actual electoral shift. There aren't a lot of states where you can say that.

Does anyone expect Clinton to perform as well among blacks as Obama, particularly regarding turnout?

Not as well necessarily, no - my point there was to show a) how much the state has changed since then, and b) that there is some wiggle room (specifically, if she did pull the 2008 numbers among the other groups and could bridge half of the gap between "Generic D in GA" at 89-90% and Obama at 95-97%, then she'd be within striking distance).

The thing is...this is going to be another historic election for a lot of Deep South black voters. In Georgia, 62% of black voters in 2008 were female; 63% in 2012. These numbers are heavily skewed for what should be rather obvious reasons...but if she can hold at least Obama 2012 numbers among females and pull what would usually be the average black share of the vote from males, then she is pretty close to that "bridging half the gap" point where she needs to be (93-94%).

If she gets 94% from blacks, 23% from whites and 70% from the rest, then she's sitting pretty at 49.7% based on what I expect the electorate to be (59% white, 31% black, 10% other).

[Inmate Trump]

I think GA will be extremely close. As a lifelong resident, I can really see the state going either way at this point. There are lots of Trump supporters here, but just as many #NeverTrumpers here too. Clinton has a good shot.