GA Abt SBRI AJC: Trump 47 Clinton 44, Sanders 47 Trump 42
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  GA Abt SBRI AJC: Trump 47 Clinton 44, Sanders 47 Trump 42
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Author Topic: GA Abt SBRI AJC: Trump 47 Clinton 44, Sanders 47 Trump 42  (Read 4951 times)
HillOfANight
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« on: May 14, 2016, 12:36:14 AM »
« edited: May 14, 2016, 07:07:12 AM by HillOfANight »

http://www.myajc.com/news/news/state-regional-govt-politics/poll-clinton-vs-trump-a-tossup-between-unpopular-c/nrMhZ/

http://www.myajc.com/news/may-2016-poll/ interactive crosstabs

http://media.cmgdigital.com/shared/news/documents/2016/05/13/30480_GA_Poll_Banner1.pdf full results

She gets 20% of the white vote, Sanders gets 25%
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1 on: May 14, 2016, 01:04:38 AM »

He's getting decimated among College Graduates 44-2. That bodes bad signs for him elsewhere.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #2 on: May 14, 2016, 01:09:37 AM »

I think the interactive thing is glitched.

http://media.cmgdigital.com/shared/news/documents/2016/05/13/30480_GA_Poll_Banner1.pdf
Page 19 shows Trump leading 46-44 among college graduates.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #3 on: May 14, 2016, 01:10:43 AM »

I think the interactive thing is glitched.

http://media.cmgdigital.com/shared/news/documents/2016/05/13/30480_GA_Poll_Banner1.pdf
Page 19 shows Trump leading 46-44 among college graduates.

Okay, that makes more sense.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #4 on: May 14, 2016, 07:08:07 AM »

Landmark likes to publish close races to ensure the GOP pays attention and doesn't let the race slip to the Democrats, the media and the Democrats have an interest in how purple GA is turning.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #5 on: May 14, 2016, 08:00:30 AM »
« Edited: May 14, 2016, 08:02:37 AM by President Griffin »

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Skye
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« Reply #6 on: May 14, 2016, 08:33:19 AM »

What is it with all the GA polls lately?
I guess it has something to do with proving it's the new battleground state?
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #7 on: May 14, 2016, 09:01:30 AM »

But Hillary's actually led in Arizona/North Carolina. Though I think close GA polls are a good barometer of where the race stands nationally.
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Podgy the Bear
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« Reply #8 on: May 14, 2016, 09:08:16 AM »

From the ground here in Georgia, I believe that the poll is reasonably accurate.  It's close--Trump appears to be consolidating his support among the Republican rank and file but probably not the swing group.  

I have always maintained that Georgia is not "reddening" (or even "purpling") as fast as some people think.  There is considerable AA and Hispanic migration into the state, but it tends to be counterbalanced by a conservative white influx as well.  
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #9 on: May 14, 2016, 09:09:41 AM »

Sanders is even doing better here? Are there any states where Sanders doesn't do better than Clinton these days?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #10 on: May 14, 2016, 09:14:58 AM »

Georgia isnt in play. Clinton plays very well in all important state of Pennsylvania
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Holmes
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« Reply #11 on: May 14, 2016, 09:29:13 AM »

Georgia may be teasing us right now, but if Clinton can get 85-90% of the non-white vote, and 25-30% of the white vote, she might be able to pull it off.

Sanders is even doing better here? Are there any states where Sanders doesn't do better than Clinton these days?

Maybe Florida.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #12 on: May 14, 2016, 10:04:53 AM »

TRUMP will lose Va, Pa and NH and lose the election. He's the only GOPer regardless if its Sanders that cant win in Appalachia. But GA is and NC and AZ are teasers
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #13 on: May 14, 2016, 10:12:46 AM »

Clinton's doing really well in NC now though and PPP should confirm AZ soon.

Anyway, thought it'd be important to note, in October 2012, they said Obama 43 Romney 51. It ended up Obama 45 Romney 53, so these guys are pretty good in GA.

http://www.ajc.com/news/national/georgia-statewide-poll/
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Wells
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« Reply #14 on: May 14, 2016, 12:14:55 PM »

Time for more of my patented analysis. Assuming this poll's demographics are even across all states and Trump does win Georgia by 3%, then using RCP's and 538's demographic calculators I get this result:

Hillary Clinton/Julian Castro: 396, 54.5%
Donald Trump/Newt Gingrich: 142, 44.6%

Clinton won Texas by 0.1% and Arizona by 0.4%. Trump won Indiana by 3.5% and Georgia by 2.9%.
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Xing
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« Reply #15 on: May 14, 2016, 01:59:12 PM »

Wow, maybe Trump really does have a GA problem.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #16 on: May 14, 2016, 02:00:46 PM »

Time for more of my patented analysis. Assuming this poll's demographics are even across all states and Trump does win Georgia by 3%, then using RCP's and 538's demographic calculators I get this result:

Hillary Clinton/Julian Castro: 396, 54.5%
Donald Trump/Newt Gingrich: 142, 44.6%

Clinton won Texas by 0.1% and Arizona by 0.4%. Trump won Indiana by 3.5% and Georgia by 2.9%.

Freedom map
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #17 on: May 14, 2016, 02:06:09 PM »

Wow, maybe Trump really does have a GA problem.

Trump is a terrible fit for the South Atlantic states. I expect VA, NC and GA to be three of the most Democratic states in 50 years.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #18 on: May 14, 2016, 04:11:51 PM »

Junk, TRUMP will easily win Georgia. And he would beat Bernard badly.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #19 on: May 14, 2016, 10:39:46 PM »

Wow, maybe Trump really does have a GA problem.

Trump is a terrible fit for the South Atlantic states. I expect VA, NC and GA to be three of the most Democratic states in 50 years.

In what ways?
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President Johnson
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« Reply #20 on: May 15, 2016, 04:46:28 AM »

Time for more of my patented analysis. Assuming this poll's demographics are even across all states and Trump does win Georgia by 3%, then using RCP's and 538's demographic calculators I get this result:

Hillary Clinton/Julian Castro: 396, 54.5%
Donald Trump/Newt Gingrich: 142, 44.6%

Clinton won Texas by 0.1% and Arizona by 0.4%. Trump won Indiana by 3.5% and Georgia by 2.9%.

Of course, Hillary wins Texas and loses Missouri. Not going to happen. TRUMP will be between 55% and 60% in Texas.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #21 on: May 15, 2016, 08:25:01 AM »

Clinton won't win TX
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Wells
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« Reply #22 on: May 15, 2016, 09:05:26 AM »
« Edited: May 15, 2016, 02:12:37 PM by MikeWells12 »

Time for more of my patented analysis. Assuming this poll's demographics are even across all states and Trump does win Georgia by 3%, then using RCP's and 538's demographic calculators I get this result:

Hillary Clinton/Julian Castro: 396, 54.5%
Donald Trump/Newt Gingrich: 142, 44.6%

Clinton won Texas by 0.1% and Arizona by 0.4%. Trump won Indiana by 3.5% and Georgia by 2.9%.

Of course, Hillary wins Texas and loses Missouri. Not going to happen. TRUMP will be between 55% and 60% in Texas.

It could happen. In this poll, Hispanics and "Other" went for Clinton by huge margins. Texas happens to have a lot of Hispanics.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #23 on: May 15, 2016, 10:20:01 AM »

Three similar polls, three similar results. If Donald Trump is doing this badly, then one of two things is happening. Either the Democrats are putting the Carter coalition back together  (not likely so fast) or the 2012 election will be a blowout. The most likely gains for Hillary Clinton are in states in which Bill Clinton won or got close to winning, but Barack Obama got clobbered in.

I find it hard to believe that Hillary Clinton could win by the blowout majorities in some states that Obama won by in 2008.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #24 on: May 15, 2016, 10:56:20 AM »

Either the Democrats are putting the Carter coalition back together 

lol
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