GA Abt SBRI AJC: Trump 47 Clinton 44, Sanders 47 Trump 42 (user search)
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  GA Abt SBRI AJC: Trump 47 Clinton 44, Sanders 47 Trump 42 (search mode)
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Author Topic: GA Abt SBRI AJC: Trump 47 Clinton 44, Sanders 47 Trump 42  (Read 5033 times)
Wells
MikeWells12
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« on: May 14, 2016, 12:14:55 PM »
Time for more of my patented analysis. Assuming this poll's demographics are even across all states and Trump does win Georgia by 3%, then using RCP's and 538's demographic calculators I get this result:

Hillary Clinton/Julian Castro: 396, 54.5%
Donald Trump/Newt Gingrich: 142, 44.6%

Clinton won Texas by 0.1% and Arizona by 0.4%. Trump won Indiana by 3.5% and Georgia by 2.9%.
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Wells
MikeWells12
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« Reply #1 on: May 15, 2016, 09:05:26 AM »
« Edited: May 15, 2016, 02:12:37 PM by MikeWells12 »
Quote from: President Johnson on May 15, 2016, 04:46:28 AM
Quote from: MikeWells12 on May 14, 2016, 12:14:55 PM
Time for more of my patented analysis. Assuming this poll's demographics are even across all states and Trump does win Georgia by 3%, then using RCP's and 538's demographic calculators I get this result:

Hillary Clinton/Julian Castro: 396, 54.5%
Donald Trump/Newt Gingrich: 142, 44.6%

Clinton won Texas by 0.1% and Arizona by 0.4%. Trump won Indiana by 3.5% and Georgia by 2.9%.

Of course, Hillary wins Texas and loses Missouri. Not going to happen. TRUMP will be between 55% and 60% in Texas.

It could happen. In this poll, Hispanics and "Other" went for Clinton by huge margins. Texas happens to have a lot of Hispanics.
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Wells
MikeWells12
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Posts: 4,075
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« Reply #2 on: May 15, 2016, 09:27:22 PM »
Quote from: Badger on May 15, 2016, 08:56:02 PM
Quote from: MikeWells12 on May 14, 2016, 12:14:55 PM
Time for more of my patented analysis. Assuming this poll's demographics are even across all states and Trump does win Georgia by 3%, then using RCP's and 538's demographic calculators I get this result:

Hillary Clinton/Julian Castro: 396, 54.5%
Donald Trump/Newt Gingrich: 142, 44.6%

Clinton won Texas by 0.1% and Arizona by 0.4%. Trump won Indiana by 3.5% and Georgia by 2.9%.

What happens in NE-2?

Trump won by a decent margin in Nebraska, so I assumed that it wouldn't go for Clinton.
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