GA Abt SBRI AJC: Trump 47 Clinton 44, Sanders 47 Trump 42

[Adam Griffin]

[Adam Griffin]

Nathan Deal actually did relatively well with black voters in 2014.

http://www.cnn.com/election/2014/results/state/GA/governor/
Nathan got 10% of the black vote

http://www.cnn.com/election/2014/results/state/GA/senate/
While in the Senate, Perdue got just 7%.

Nathan Deal did black outreach, working with Ludacris, putting black people in his ads, touting his work with black schools, etc. GOP getting 10% of the black vote vs 5% is a big difference with the inflexible white voters.

That's actually not impressive at all: that's the baseline. Virtually every Democratic statewide/federal candidate for office in Georgia in recent years (who isn't named Obama) where we've had exit polling has pulled the magic 89-90% of blacks. Even when it comes to down-ballot statewide candidates where we don't have exit polling, this appears to be true based on calculations I've done on 2010/2014 races that focus on the "path of least resistance" in terms of support and demographics. It's quite, quite consistent.

The variable from election to election in Georgia is the white vote, which can bounce around anywhere from 15-16% (in those down-ballot statewide races with black candidates) to 23-24% (for top-ticket statewide/presidential races with white candidates).

The fact that Perdue only got 7% is embarrassing, assuming, you know, that it's not just an anomaly within the margin of error of the exit poll.

[Adam Griffin]

^^^ The last statewide candidate to do "well" with black voters in Georgia was Sonny Perdue in his re-election; exit polls say that he got 17% of the black vote (which based on the discrepancy in racial turnout between the exit polls and actual SoS recorded turnout, was probably a couple of points lower than that in actuality).

Mark Taylor (D) only got 81%.