DRA stuff

[Oryxslayer]

Colorado now has 2012/2016 PVIs. Others might as well!

Edit: so does Virginia!

Currently there is 2012/2016 data for: CO, GA, HI, IA, KS, MA, MD, MN, NC, NH, NV, OH, OK, RI, TN, UT, VA, WI, and WV.

The site appears to update and ad new data every Saturday/Sunday. Last week, instead of adding new states, the data was changed to now present to the second decimal rather then just be a single number.

[Del Tachi]

Whipped this up in about 10 minutes, mild Mississippi D gerrymander.

The 1st and 4th are both extreme R packs (62.6% and 70.5% Republican, respectively) while the 2nd and 3rd are 51.8% and 53.3% Obama.  I say "mild" because the two D districts are only 50.2% and 50.9% Black, so this probably wouldn't stand under VRA (or maybe it would, I'm not really sure).  Dems could get wiped out of all 4 districts in a good GOP year, but I think they'd be favored to hold 2/4 seats under most circumstances with this map. 

No county splits, maximum deviation is in District 2 (+2,075).  District 2 is also the most erose and probably has the most severe COI problem - the most direct route between two of the district's largest cities (Clarksdale and Meridian) is entirely on two-lane roads.  No worse than the current MS-03 though.

[catographer]

Made an ungerrymandered, nonpartisan redistricting in Ohio using DRA. The current gerrymandered map has 3 safe blue districts, whereas the rest are essentially safe red. This map changes things up and creates a more representation, competitive map.

We have two very safe blue districts: the 3rd in Columbus, and the 11th in Cleveland. Then one mostly safe blue: the 5th around Toledo.

There are 7 very safe red districts: suburban and rural 2nd east of Cincinnati; rural 4th in the northwest; rural 6th along WV border; blue collar and rural 7th around Canton; rural and suburban 8th north of Cincinnati; the 12th and 15th, which surround Columbus.

Finally, there are 6 competitive districts. The 1st in Cincinnati is Light Blue, and Obama and Clinton won it very easily. 10th is Light Red, around Dayton; Obama almost won it, and Clinton was competitive. The 9th and 14th flank Cleveland, and Obama won both of them; 9th he won comfortably, and but the 14th only narrowly; the 14th was won handily by Trump. The 13th (Youngstown) and 16th (Akron) are interesting, because Obama won both very easily, however Trump's massive gains with WWC and non-college educated whites led him to carry these two with ease; averaging out 2012 and 2016, these two are essentially EVEN districts.

This map better reflects Ohio's competitive nature (Obama and McCain each won 8 districts in a very close state) and also Ohio's recent red tilt (GOP has 10 favorable PVIs, compared to Dems 6).

[muon2]

In 2011 I posted this map using DRA. It was redrawn from my submission to the Ohio Redistricting Contest where it was one of the top plans. For the contest the political measure was a composite of results from 2008 and 2010. District 11 was strong D, districts 1,5,7,13,14,15,16 were lean D, district 9 was even, districts 3,6,10 were lean R and districts 2,4,8,12 were strong R. Districts 1,3,5,7,9,14,15 were highly competitive with neither side exceeding +2.5%. In 2008 Obama won 11 of the 16 districts losing only the strong R districts plus lean R CD 6.



Now that the 2012/16 data is available I thought it would be interesting to compare those districtsand see how they have evolved this decade. The first number is the 2008-2010 composite used in the competition and the second is the DRA PVI.

CD 1: D+2.3 -> PVI D+4.5
CD 2: R+13.2 -> PVI R+17.9
CD 3: R+2.5 -> PVI R+2.7
CD 4: R+17.0 -> PVI R+22.8
CD 5: D+1.5 -> PVI R+0.3
CD 6: R+2.7 -> PVI R+12.9
CD 7: D+2.5 -> PVI D+2.6
CD 8: R+15.8 -> PVI R+17.0
CD 9: D+0.7 -> PVI R+2.3
CD 10: R+3.8 -> PVI R+3.8
CD 11: D+30.2 -> PVI D+31.8
CD 12: R+13.9 -> PVI R+13.1
CD 13: D+3.2 -> PVI D+2.7
CD 14: D+1.3 -> PVI R+2.4
CD 15: D+2.5 -> PVI D+9.0
CD 16: D+3.5 -> PVI R+2.9

There were a number of shifts here. CD 5 went from lean D to even. CD 6 went from lean R to strong R. CD 9 went from even to lean R. CD 14 went from lean D to lean R. CD 15 went from lean D to strong D. CD 16 went from lean D to lean R. So the plan went from 8 D, 7 R, 1 even to 5 D, 10 R, 1 even between 2010 and 2016.

[Oryxslayer]

Colorado now has 2012/2016 PVIs. Others might as well!

Edit: so does Virginia!

Currently there is 2012/2016 data for: CO, GA, HI, IA, KS, MA, MD, MN, NC, NH, NV, OH, OK, RI, TN, UT, VA, WI, and WV.

The site appears to update and ad new data every Saturday/Sunday. Last week, instead of adding new states, the data was changed to now present to the second decimal rather then just be a single number.

Added today were AZ, IN, KY, MO, MS, OR, and PA, though only about half of PA's precincts have the 2012-2016 data. This makes PA's data unusable as of now.

[Dr. MB]

2-2 Mississippi (Extreme)

1st District (Blue): 49.9% Black, 45.8% White, 2.3% Hispanic, D+1.54
2nd District (Green): 51.1% Black, 45.3% White, 2.2% Hispanic, D+5.48
3rd District (Purple): 73.7% White, 21.2% Black, 2.7% Hispanic, R+22.56
4th District (Red): 71.1% White, 21.8% Black, 3.8% Hispanic, R+22.13

[Dr. MB]

Democratic gerrymander in Oklahoma

52% White, 19.3% Black, 17.0% Hispanic, 4.3% Native, 2.4% Asian, 5% Other
53.5–46.5% Obama, average 58.9% D
2012/2016 D+2.37

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Democratic gerrymander in Oklahoma

52% White, 19.3% Black, 17.0% Hispanic, 4.3% Native, 2.4% Asian, 5% Other
53.5–46.5% Obama, average 58.9% D
2012/2016 D+2.37

It's possible to actually get a majority minority seat in Oklahoma. It's McCain voting but heavily D downballot.

[Dr. MB]

6-district Oregon proposal

The nice thing about this map is that it creates three competitive seats, there are two strong D seats and one strong R seat, and three swing districts.

District 1 – 72.9% White, 14.1% Hispanic, 7.7% Asian, 1.5% Black, 0.6% Native
59.3% Obama, 38.6% McCain
D+8.39

District 2 – 81.3% White, 12.7% Hispanic, 2.1% Native, 1.1% Asian, 0.5% Black
55.9% McCain, 42.0% Obama
R+12.87

District 3 – 71.5% White, 10.4% Hispanic, 7.4% Asian, 6.0% Black, 0.8% Native
79.9% Obama, 18.0% McCain
D+31.58

District 4 – 85.5% White, 7.4% Hispanic, 1.9% Asian, 1.3% Native, 0.7% Black
54.5% Obama, 43.2% McCain
EVEN

District 5 – 80.3% White, 12.5% Hispanic, 3.2% Asian, 0.8% Black, 0.7% Native
52.4% Obama, 45.7% McCain
R+0.9

District 6 – 79.1% White, 13.4% Hispanic, 2.6% Asian, 1.3% Native, 0.8% Black
52.8% Obama, 44.9% McCain
R+0.87

I tried to eliminate the ridiculous gerrymander of District 5 by moving most of Tillamook County to the 1st district, and also made the 3rd entirely within Multnomah County.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

6-district Oregon proposal

The nice thing about this map is that it creates three competitive seats, there are two strong D seats and one strong R seat, and three swing districts.

District 1 – 72.9% White, 14.1% Hispanic, 7.7% Asian, 1.5% Black, 0.6% Native
59.3% Obama, 38.6% McCain
D+8.39

District 2 – 81.3% White, 12.7% Hispanic, 2.1% Native, 1.1% Asian, 0.5% Black
55.9% McCain, 42.0% Obama
R+12.87

District 3 – 71.5% White, 10.4% Hispanic, 7.4% Asian, 6.0% Black, 0.8% Native
79.9% Obama, 18.0% McCain
D+31.58

District 4 – 85.5% White, 7.4% Hispanic, 1.9% Asian, 1.3% Native, 0.7% Black
54.5% Obama, 43.2% McCain
EVEN

District 5 – 80.3% White, 12.5% Hispanic, 3.2% Asian, 0.8% Black, 0.7% Native
52.4% Obama, 45.7% McCain
R+0.9

District 6 – 79.1% White, 13.4% Hispanic, 2.6% Asian, 1.3% Native, 0.8% Black
52.8% Obama, 44.9% McCain
R+0.87

I tried to eliminate the ridiculous gerrymander of District 5 by moving most of Tillamook County to the 1st district, and also made the 3rd entirely within Multnomah County.

Is it really a good idea splitting Lane, Douglas and Jackson counties?

[Dr. MB]

6-district Oregon proposal

The nice thing about this map is that it creates three competitive seats, there are two strong D seats and one strong R seat, and three swing districts.

District 1 – 72.9% White, 14.1% Hispanic, 7.7% Asian, 1.5% Black, 0.6% Native
59.3% Obama, 38.6% McCain
D+8.39

District 2 – 81.3% White, 12.7% Hispanic, 2.1% Native, 1.1% Asian, 0.5% Black
55.9% McCain, 42.0% Obama
R+12.87

District 3 – 71.5% White, 10.4% Hispanic, 7.4% Asian, 6.0% Black, 0.8% Native
79.9% Obama, 18.0% McCain
D+31.58

District 4 – 85.5% White, 7.4% Hispanic, 1.9% Asian, 1.3% Native, 0.7% Black
54.5% Obama, 43.2% McCain
EVEN

District 5 – 80.3% White, 12.5% Hispanic, 3.2% Asian, 0.8% Black, 0.7% Native
52.4% Obama, 45.7% McCain
R+0.9

District 6 – 79.1% White, 13.4% Hispanic, 2.6% Asian, 1.3% Native, 0.8% Black
52.8% Obama, 44.9% McCain
R+0.87

I tried to eliminate the ridiculous gerrymander of District 5 by moving most of Tillamook County to the 1st district, and also made the 3rd entirely within Multnomah County.

Is it really a good idea splitting Lane, Douglas and Jackson counties?

It fit the best and I'd prefer to have them all in one district, but it was either that or making OR-02 go into Gresham, so I chose the second option. For most of it outside of Jackson, it's really just the far eastern areas of the county.

[Dr. MB]

Also I redrew my state's Senate districts.

(Portland highlight)

(Willamette Valley highlight)


District 1 (Northwest Oregon Blue): 88.4% White, 54.6% Obama, R+1.30
District 2 (Hillsboro-Forest Grove Green): 63.2% White, 56.7% Obama, D+5.93
District 3 (Rockcreek-Cedar Mill Purple): 68.9% White, 65.3% Obama, D+16.52
District 4 (Aloha-Beaverton Red): 66.8% White, 62.6% Obama, D+13.16
District 5 (Tigard-Sherwood Yellow): 76.9% White, 58.3% Obama, D+7.97
District 6 (SW Portland Green): 82.8% White, 79.7% Obama, D+30.38
District 7 (North Portland Gray): 68.6% White, 87.5% Obama, D+39.29
District 8 (NE Portland Purple): 66.8% White, 75.7% Obama, D+28.21
District 9 (SE Portland Light Blue): 79.3% White, 84.5% Obama, D+37.07
District 10 (SE Portland Pink): 62.8% White, 63.9% Obama, D+14.28
District 11 (East Multnomah Green): 76.0% White, 54.3% Obama, R+0.40
District 12 (West Clackamas Blue): 87.1% White, 56.4% Obama, D+4.44
District 13 (North Clackamas Peach): 80.0% White, 58.9% Obama, D+7.04
District 14 (Clackamas/Marion/Linn Brown): 86.5% White, 53.9% McCain, R+13.39
District 15 (Yamhill/Tillamook Orange): 80.4% White, 50.2% McCain, R+6.66
District 16 (Woodburn-Silverton Green): 67.1% White, 52.3% McCain, R+8.00
District 17 (Salem Purple): 63.2% White, 57.5% Obama, D+5.6
District 18 (Monmouth-Albany Yellow): 82.3% White, 49.3% Obama, R+4.69
District 19 (Central Coast Beige): 86.7% White, 53.1% Obama, R+2.11
District 20 (Corvallis-Lebanon Pink): 84.2% White, 59.2% Obama, D+8.12
District 21 (Junction City Maroon): 85.8% White, 55.1% Obama, D+0.79
District 22 (Eugene White): 81.5% White, 76.0% Obama, D+25.56
District 23 (Lane-Douglas Blue): 88.1% White, 49.4% McCain, R+7.17
District 24 (Southwest Oregon Purple): 89.1% White, 56.8% McCain, R+16.96
District 25 (Grants Pass Pink): 87.8% White, 57.6% McCain, R+16.24
District 26 (Medford-Ashland Gray): 81.3% White, 54.9% Obama, D+1.76
District 27 (Southern Oregon Green): 85.4% White, 63.3% McCain, R+21.84
District 28 (Bend-Redmond Pink): 87.5% White, 50.4% Obama, R+2.49
District 29 (North Central Oregon Purple): 68.5% White, 50.2% McCain, R+7.86
District 30 (Eastern Oregon Pink): 80.3% White, 63.8% McCain, R+22.34

Final composition: As-Is 16 D, 14 R
Best R scenario (all R+D<5) 17 R, 13 D
Best D scenario (all D+R<5) 20 D, 10 R

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

An ungerrymandered Oregon legislative district map really should not give Republicans that good of a chance to take a majority.

[Dr. MB]

An ungerrymandered Oregon legislative district map really should not give Republicans that good of a chance to take a majority.

I agree that I messed up a bit. I tried to draw them better than they are now but it's not perfect.

[muon2]

An ungerrymandered Oregon legislative district map really should not give Republicans that good of a chance to take a majority.

Why? The Dems in OR are really concentrated in Portland so most fair geographic splits will make more overwhelmingly Dem districts (> D+20) than overwhelming Pub districts (> R+20). It doesn't serve those who want to eliminate gerrymandering to instead gerrymander to keep natural concentrations of one party from accumulating. You are viewing the map from a perspective that is very specific to this point in history.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Is there any progress on a DRA 3.0?

[muon2]

6-district Oregon proposal

The nice thing about this map is that it creates three competitive seats, there are two strong D seats and one strong R seat, and three swing districts.

District 1 – 72.9% White, 14.1% Hispanic, 7.7% Asian, 1.5% Black, 0.6% Native
59.3% Obama, 38.6% McCain
D+8.39

District 2 – 81.3% White, 12.7% Hispanic, 2.1% Native, 1.1% Asian, 0.5% Black
55.9% McCain, 42.0% Obama
R+12.87

District 3 – 71.5% White, 10.4% Hispanic, 7.4% Asian, 6.0% Black, 0.8% Native
79.9% Obama, 18.0% McCain
D+31.58

District 4 – 85.5% White, 7.4% Hispanic, 1.9% Asian, 1.3% Native, 0.7% Black
54.5% Obama, 43.2% McCain
EVEN

District 5 – 80.3% White, 12.5% Hispanic, 3.2% Asian, 0.8% Black, 0.7% Native
52.4% Obama, 45.7% McCain
R+0.9

District 6 – 79.1% White, 13.4% Hispanic, 2.6% Asian, 1.3% Native, 0.8% Black
52.8% Obama, 44.9% McCain
R+0.87

I tried to eliminate the ridiculous gerrymander of District 5 by moving most of Tillamook County to the 1st district, and also made the 3rd entirely within Multnomah County.

Since there are 6 CDs, is this a potential plan for 2020? If so, are you using new population estimates or the old 2010 population numbers on DRA?

[Strudelcutie4427]

Ridiculously gerrymandered NH. 1 safe republican seat, 1 safe democrat seat.

District 1- R+6
District 2- D+6

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Ridiculously gerrymandered NH. 1 safe republican seat, 1 safe democrat seat.

District 1- R+6
District 2- D+6

I made a version that was less strongly gerry'd but even more grotesque. Will share when I get home.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Population difference of 1452.

Blue: D+0.72
Red: R+0.7

All the counties are left intact except Sullivan County which I split to make population more even.

[Dr. MB]

6-district Oregon proposal

The nice thing about this map is that it creates three competitive seats, there are two strong D seats and one strong R seat, and three swing districts.

District 1 – 72.9% White, 14.1% Hispanic, 7.7% Asian, 1.5% Black, 0.6% Native
59.3% Obama, 38.6% McCain
D+8.39

District 2 – 81.3% White, 12.7% Hispanic, 2.1% Native, 1.1% Asian, 0.5% Black
55.9% McCain, 42.0% Obama
R+12.87

District 3 – 71.5% White, 10.4% Hispanic, 7.4% Asian, 6.0% Black, 0.8% Native
79.9% Obama, 18.0% McCain
D+31.58

District 4 – 85.5% White, 7.4% Hispanic, 1.9% Asian, 1.3% Native, 0.7% Black
54.5% Obama, 43.2% McCain
EVEN

District 5 – 80.3% White, 12.5% Hispanic, 3.2% Asian, 0.8% Black, 0.7% Native
52.4% Obama, 45.7% McCain
R+0.9

District 6 – 79.1% White, 13.4% Hispanic, 2.6% Asian, 1.3% Native, 0.8% Black
52.8% Obama, 44.9% McCain
R+0.87

I tried to eliminate the ridiculous gerrymander of District 5 by moving most of Tillamook County to the 1st district, and also made the 3rd entirely within Multnomah County.

Since there are 6 CDs, is this a potential plan for 2020? If so, are you using new population estimates or the old 2010 population numbers on DRA?

Yeah, it's potential plan but I am using 2010 data

[catographer]

On the topic of Oregon, may I interest you guys in a redistricted Oregon that preserves county lines and removes the ugly 5th?




One very safe blue district (Portland/Multnomah county). One tossup district (south Portland suburbs and Salem), one safe red district (rural Oregon, including Medford and CA-border). Two light blue districts, the 1st anchored in western Portland suburbs and the northwestern coast, and the 4th anchored in Eugene and Bend.

[muon2]

6-district Oregon proposal

The nice thing about this map is that it creates three competitive seats, there are two strong D seats and one strong R seat, and three swing districts.

District 1 – 72.9% White, 14.1% Hispanic, 7.7% Asian, 1.5% Black, 0.6% Native
59.3% Obama, 38.6% McCain
D+8.39

District 2 – 81.3% White, 12.7% Hispanic, 2.1% Native, 1.1% Asian, 0.5% Black
55.9% McCain, 42.0% Obama
R+12.87

District 3 – 71.5% White, 10.4% Hispanic, 7.4% Asian, 6.0% Black, 0.8% Native
79.9% Obama, 18.0% McCain
D+31.58

District 4 – 85.5% White, 7.4% Hispanic, 1.9% Asian, 1.3% Native, 0.7% Black
54.5% Obama, 43.2% McCain
EVEN

District 5 – 80.3% White, 12.5% Hispanic, 3.2% Asian, 0.8% Black, 0.7% Native
52.4% Obama, 45.7% McCain
R+0.9

District 6 – 79.1% White, 13.4% Hispanic, 2.6% Asian, 1.3% Native, 0.8% Black
52.8% Obama, 44.9% McCain
R+0.87

I tried to eliminate the ridiculous gerrymander of District 5 by moving most of Tillamook County to the 1st district, and also made the 3rd entirely within Multnomah County.

Since there are 6 CDs, is this a potential plan for 2020? If so, are you using new population estimates or the old 2010 population numbers on DRA?

Yeah, it's potential plan but I am using 2010 data

Because of the growth in the Portland area you won't need Tillamook in your CD 2 or Marion in your CD 4, especially it expands east instead. I've used DRA to get draw the map and get the PVI, but I used 2020 projections from the 2016 Census estimate data. This plan only splits one county other than Multnomah and keeps the deviation within 2000 from the quota.



I've matched the CD numbers up with the current districts, creating a new one for Portland.

CD 1: D+9
CD 2: R+11
CD 3: R+1
CD 4: R+1
CD 5: R+0
CD 6: D+32

There are 2 D, 1R, and 3 even CDs.

[Dr. MB]

Ungerrymandered Maryland

District 1: 77.8% White, 14.5% Black, 3.7% Hispanic, 1.8% Asian
57.0% McCain, 41.4% Obama
R+11.8

District 2: 61.2% White, 27.2% Black, 4.9% Asian, 4.2% Hispanic
58.0% Obama, 40.4% McCain
D+9.1

District 3: 43.8% White, 29.0% Black, 13.3% Hispanic, 10.3% Asian
70.6% Obama, 28.2% McCain
D+23.3

District 4: 65.9% Black, 15.5% Hispanic, 12.6% White, 3.6% Asian
91.2% Obama, 8.3% McCain
D+41.3

District 5: 70.5% White, 19.6% Black, 4.6% Hispanic, 2.4% Asian
50.5% Obama, 48.2% McCain
EVEN

District 6: 83.3% White, 6.8% Black, 4.2% Hispanic, 3.6% Asian
56.8% McCain, 41.6% Obama
R+11.5

District 7: 56.4% Black, 34.2% White, 4.4% Hispanic, 2.8% Asian
81.2% Obama, 17.6% McCain
D+31.3

District 8: 54.2% White, 15.4% Hispanic, 14.9% Asian, 12.4% Black
69.2% Obama, 29.7% McCain
D+22.0

This gives 5 safe D districts, 2 safe R districts, and one swing district.

[Dr. MB]

Utah new

District 1 (Blue): R+26.4
District 2 (Green): D+4.6
District 3 (Purple): R+25.5
District 4 (Red): R+33.5

I wanted to create a single district out of the rural areas of the state, which are currently divided between all 4, and gerrymandered to favor the Republicans. I also created a D-leaning district out of Salt Lake, Davis, and Summit counties.

This would also put Reps. Rob Bishop and Chris Stewart in a primary against each other for the new 1st district. Mia Love would be able to run in the 4th, and John Curtis in the 3rd. The 2nd wouldn't have an incumbent.