DRA stuff

[Del Tachi]

Whipped this up in about 10 minutes, mild Mississippi D gerrymander.

The 1st and 4th are both extreme R packs (62.6% and 70.5% Republican, respectively) while the 2nd and 3rd are 51.8% and 53.3% Obama.  I say "mild" because the two D districts are only 50.2% and 50.9% Black, so this probably wouldn't stand under VRA (or maybe it would, I'm not really sure).  Dems could get wiped out of all 4 districts in a good GOP year, but I think they'd be favored to hold 2/4 seats under most circumstances with this map. 

No county splits, maximum deviation is in District 2 (+2,075).  District 2 is also the most erose and probably has the most severe COI problem - the most direct route between two of the district's largest cities (Clarksdale and Meridian) is entirely on two-lane roads.  No worse than the current MS-03 though.

[Del Tachi]

Metro ATL Democratic Gerrymander



4 solidly Democratic districts, a Lean/Tilt D district, and a D opportunity district.

District 1 - PVI D+13.75, 53.9% White, 64.5% Obama.  A dream of mine come true:  a solidly Democratic district dominated by ITP Whites.  Includes Buckhead, Midtown, parts of Downtown, East Atlanta and most of DeKalb County.  DeKalb actually holds the bulk of population here, not Fulton.  Safe Democrat, but more likely to elect a moderate, Hillary type - Mary Norwood or Alex Wan would be perfect here.

District 2 - PVI D+23, 62.6% Black, 71.5% Obama.  The most Democratic district on the map, CD-2 is dominated by Black suburbs in DeKalb County and the fast-growing, diverse exurbs of Rockdale and Newton County.  This is probably the wealthiest majority-Black district in the country.  No portions of the city of Atlanta are in this district.  Hank Johnson would probably run in this district.

District 3 - PVI D+10.43, 47.4% Black, 59.5% Obama.  Anchored by Clayton County, this district includes most of Hartsfield-Jackson airport, South Atlanta, and the diverse exurbs of Henry County.  It also includes Fayette and Spalding counties, which are pretty Republican at the moment, but will continue to grow and diversify as well.  While the District is only 47% Black, total non-White population is over 60% and it is continuing to get more diverse.  This is the most likely seat for John Lewis.   

District 4 - PVI D+24.79, 60.5% Black, 73.4% Obama  The successor to David Scott's district, the new 4th is dominated by West Atlanta, the Black suburbs of Douglas County, and some minority and White liberal areas in South Cobb and around Marietta.  Safe Democrat and heavily African-American, but interestingly Stacey Evans lives in this district.

District 5 - PVI R+9.48, 66.3% White, 60.0% McCain.    The most Republican of the new districts, this is largely a successor to the current GA-06.  This District includes the suburbs of former Milton County, some of the wealthiest areas of the Metro around Vinings in Cobb, and fast-growing exurbs in outer-Cobb communities like Kennesaw and Acworth.  Lean R, but could be a Democratic opportunity district.

District 6 - PVI R+2.11, 49.2% White, 53.1% McCain.  Despite the R+2.11 PVI, I'm going to call this a Tilt D district (its under 50% White, quickly diversifying, and probably had a D PVI in 2016).  Captures most of the White areas in Gwinnett County and then snakes along SR-316 to Athens.  I'd like to see John Barrow make a comeback in this district (he lives in Athens now).   

 

[Del Tachi]

Full Georgia redraw.  Cobb and DeKalb each get  their own district.  2 Safe Dem seats (9 and 11), a likely D seat (5), two Lean D seats (4 and and a tossup seat in Cobb (5).  District 1 and 2 are less than R+10, District 6 is roughly R+11. 

[Del Tachi]

Two Democratic Districts in Louisiana

District 6 - DEM +8.09, Obama 58.5%, 61.8% Avg DEM, 50.5% Black VAP.  A reimagined majority Black district in Louisiana.  The bulk of the population is centered around Baton Rouge and majority-Black areas along the Mississippi River.  The cities of Monroe, Alexandria, Opelousas and Lafayette are racially split.  Of course its not very compact, but I don't think its any more egregious than most Southern VRA districts.

District 2 - DEM +10.42, Obama 56.1%, 59.6% Avg DEM, 47.5% White VAP, 38.4% Black VAP, 9.1% Hispanic VAP, 3.5% Asian VAP.  A new New Orleans-based districts that includes all of Orleans Parish as well as most of neighboring Jefferson.  Though its not majority-Black, its actually more Democratic than the new 6th district.  It looks like the 6th would have been more Democratic in 2008/12 though, with the 2nd swinging enough to the Dems in 2016 to make it the most Democratic in the state.  This could would be a good district for a White Democrat like Mitch Landrieu or Caroline Fayard.

Of course the 2020 census numbers will change the geography of Louisiana a lot (New Orleans Parish is expected to gain a lot of population), but this provides a good idea of how 2 Democratic districts in Louisiana could be drawn.  With JBE still likely to be governor when redistricting next comes around, I wonder if he will demand a second Democratic district to bring Louisiana closer to partisan proportionality in Congress.

[Del Tachi]

Another GA redraw.  I'll call this a moderate D gerrymander while trying to minimize erosity and county/municipal splits:



Georgia loses 2 plurality-Black VAP districts (the current GA-05 and GA-02), but gains competitive districts around the state.  This map probably starts as a 9-5 split (Dems win GA-01, GA-02, GA-04, GA-05, GA-13) before moving to a 7-7 map in a few cycles (Dems gain GA-07, GA-10, and GA-11 while losing GA-02).