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Author Topic: Trump +13 in Utah Dan Jones & Associates (May 2-10)  (Read 2161 times)
Former GM 1184AZ
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« on: May 16, 2016, 02:27:00 pm »

Donald Trump 43%
Hillary Clinton 30%

Donald Trump 43%
Bernie Sanders 37%

http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/9518-
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« Reply #1 on: May 16, 2016, 02:28:19 pm »

B-b-b-but muh swing state Utah! Sad
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Castro
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« Reply #2 on: May 16, 2016, 02:28:33 pm »

RIP Battleground Utah.
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« Reply #3 on: May 16, 2016, 02:31:48 pm »

Trump losing UT was always a pipe dream. Fortunately, UT is nowhere near a must-win for Hillary.
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #4 on: May 16, 2016, 02:34:24 pm »

RIP indeed to Democratic Utah 2016; it was a fun, absurd dream.  This poll is still hilariously close though, given how a Democrat like Hillary Clinton should be polling Utah.
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« Reply #5 on: May 16, 2016, 02:36:45 pm »

He's probably going to win it in the end, but the county map will look vastly different than it did in 2012.
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« Reply #6 on: May 16, 2016, 02:39:44 pm »

New Poll: Utah President by Dan Jones on 2016-05-10

Summary: D: 30%, R: 43%, U: 26%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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« Reply #7 on: May 16, 2016, 02:51:08 pm »

The swing/trend here is still going to be ridiculous.
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« Reply #8 on: May 16, 2016, 03:09:48 pm »

The relative closeness of Utah is not so much important for Utah as it is for neighboring Nevada and Arizona.
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« Reply #9 on: May 16, 2016, 03:11:42 pm »

But Utah State will be the swing state!
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« Reply #10 on: May 16, 2016, 03:13:11 pm »

Almost certain that most of those 26% of undecided will be Trump voters too.
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« Reply #11 on: May 16, 2016, 03:31:00 pm »

This is pretty close to my guess based on trends and demographics... that is, in a Clinton +7 election, I have Utah going to Trump with a margin of 15 points.

So either I got something reasonably right with my Latino/Mormon swing, this poll is not representative, or Clinton isn't ahead by 7 nationally (obviously any of those is perfectly plausible).
« Last Edit: May 16, 2016, 03:44:21 pm by Mallow »Logged

Animation of 1964-2012 presidential margin by state, adjusted by US margin

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« Reply #12 on: May 16, 2016, 03:35:37 pm »

Muh Utah Sad
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« Reply #13 on: May 16, 2016, 03:36:52 pm »

Almost certain that most of those 26% of undecided will be Trump voters too.

Or they won't vote.
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« Reply #14 on: May 16, 2016, 03:37:51 pm »

Looks like Utah conservatives are finally coming home to Trump.
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« Reply #15 on: May 16, 2016, 04:16:00 pm »

Aw, I liked the idea of Utah as a battleground state Sad
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« Reply #16 on: May 16, 2016, 04:24:10 pm »

Trump has brought the Mormons to heel.

The swing will still be massive though. Also, Utah is now a toss up on the Atlas map lol. Enjoy it while it lasts.
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« Reply #17 on: May 16, 2016, 05:06:29 pm »

For Utah, a Republican in the lead with 43% is still awful.

PPP is releasing a poll of Arizona this week. If I am a Democrat I would still rather win Arizona. 
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« Reply #18 on: May 16, 2016, 05:07:06 pm »

For Utah, a Republican in the lead with 43% is still awful.

PPP is releasing a poll of Arizona this week. If I am a Democrat I would still rather win Arizona.  

PPP is also releasing a poll of New Mexico tomorrow. Smiley
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Reginald
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« Reply #19 on: May 16, 2016, 05:27:02 pm »

Although 43% for a Republican in Utah is pathetic, and Clinton will probably receive a small bounce from holdout Sanders supporters herself once she clinches the nomination... that was fun while it lasted.
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« Reply #20 on: May 16, 2016, 06:25:57 pm »

I'd say Utah will still give 5-10% to Johnson.
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« Reply #21 on: May 16, 2016, 11:25:34 pm »

It was fun while it lasted.
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« Reply #22 on: May 16, 2016, 11:51:59 pm »

I'd say Utah will still give 5-10% to Johnson.

Is there a Constitution Party candidate on the ballot in Utah? If so, I'd reckon (s)he would do better than Gary Johnson or any Libertarian. I wouldn't think Mormons would want to vote for a libertarian since libertarians' views on social issues are in conflict with what "Jesus" believes.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #23 on: May 17, 2016, 12:35:28 am »

The relative closeness of Utah is not so much important for Utah as it is for neighboring Nevada and Arizona.
Seriously?

Utah = Mormons. Trump did terribly with Mormons in the primaries. Comparing UT to any other state other than perhaps Idaho doesn't make sense.  Hint: Hillary! isn't winning Idaho, just like Trump isn't winning the People's Socialist Republic of Vermont.

Trump also won by healthy margins in Nevada and Arizona in the Republican primary. He should play well in both states as there won't be as much erosion by the #NeverTrump losers as you think.
« Last Edit: May 17, 2016, 12:39:47 am by Seriously? »Logged
Bevinevitable
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« Reply #24 on: May 17, 2016, 03:33:19 am »

The relative closeness of Utah is not so much important for Utah as it is for neighboring Nevada and Arizona.
Seriously?

Utah = Mormons. Trump did terribly with Mormons in the primaries. Comparing UT to any other state other than perhaps Idaho doesn't make sense.  Hint: Hillary! isn't winning Idaho, just like Trump isn't winning the People's Socialist Republic of Vermont.

Trump also won by healthy margins in Nevada and Arizona in the Republican primary. He should play well in both states as there won't be as much erosion by the #NeverTrump losers as you think.

There are lots of Mormons in NV/AZ...
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