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  2016 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: TJ in Oregon, Virginiá)
  Oregon could be a swing state in 2016.
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Author Topic: Oregon could be a swing state in 2016.  (Read 5491 times)
StatesPoll
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« on: May 17, 2016, 04:55:45 am »

Oregon is generally considered as Blue State. Yes, still it is.

But Oregon has a potential to be a swing state in 2016.


1. Party Affiliation (2014). Oregon Party Affiliation haven’t change much in last 2 years.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/05/27/state-party-registration_n_5399977.html


Democrats 39% Republican 31% Independents 30%

Considering 49% would be a winning numbers.

If TRUMP gets 15% of the Democrats, 90% of the Republican, 55% of the Independent.

39%(DEM) X 12% + 31%(Rep) x 90% + 30%(Inde) x 55% = 49.08%.


2. Racial Demogrpahics.

Voters Shares(considering Turnouts) in 2016, it would be

White 89% | Hispanic 6.5% | Black 2% | Asian 2.5%

If TRUMP could attract Reagan Democrats(mostly white), it is a worth to challenge.


3. 29% people in Oregon are Evangelical(2014). Which is 1% higher than Iowa. It could be a big favor for TRUMP. because recently he gets huge support of Evangelical.

http://www.pewforum.org/religious-landscape-study/religious-tradition/evangelical-protestant/

TRUMP marked 81% of the Evangelical in latest Poll.

Evangelicals: TRUMP 81%, Hillary 19% (OANN/Gravis 5/10)

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/732033604709191680


4. Romney(GOP) once chased Obama 43-47 of SurveryUSA Poll

(5/7-5/10/2012, 1468 RV)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=19eb906a-ae83-463b-9daa-3c3bda489d7d

Obama(D) 47% | Romney® 43%


5. TRUMP vs Hillary in Oregon. DHM Research May 6-9, 2016 901 RV.

http://res.cloudinary.com/bdy4ger4/image/upload/v1462998751/OPBFoxPrimaryElectionSurveyGeneralElection_ujlqhh.pdf

Page 9. TRUMP 32% | Hillary 43%  11% margins.

11% gap. But considering Those factors, it could be tighter than results.


1) TRUMP only got 6% of the democrats in Oregon could be a outlier.

(this poll had 351 RV samples of democrats)

2) TRUMP only got 66% of the Republican. But Considering Hillary got only 9% of the Republican, If TRUMP unifies the party. He could expand it to 90%ish. (if he gets +24% more of republican in Oregon. it means he could add +7.44% more than this poll. 31%(republican in Oregon) x 24%

= 7.44%

and if TRUMP gets 15% of the democrats. he could add 3.51%

(39% x +9% more than this poll = 3.51%)

Then it could be TRUMP 42.95% | Hillary 43%,  dead heat.

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Panda Express
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« Reply #1 on: May 17, 2016, 05:14:09 am »

your mom could be a swing state in 2016.
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cxs018
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« Reply #2 on: May 17, 2016, 05:16:48 am »

I mean, I suppose so, but I don't think Oregon will trend Republican this year.
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The Unbearable Invincibility of Dan Bishop
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« Reply #3 on: May 17, 2016, 05:20:12 am »

Swing? If TRUMP™ gets all of the indies, all of the reps, and 50% of the Dems, Oregon will be safe R!
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #4 on: May 17, 2016, 05:23:47 am »

No.
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I'm with Mayor Pete
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« Reply #5 on: May 17, 2016, 07:18:39 am »

Sagebrush Republicans hate Trump, Cascadian Progressives moreso.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #6 on: May 17, 2016, 07:24:53 am »

Trump should invest lots and lots of money into Oregon...
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Zache
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« Reply #7 on: May 17, 2016, 07:30:17 am »

Just like California?
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Mallow
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« Reply #8 on: May 17, 2016, 08:55:45 am »

Trump should invest lots and lots of money into Oregon...

Bahaha, agreed!
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Statilius the Epicurean
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« Reply #9 on: May 17, 2016, 09:11:22 am »

If Trump is winning 15% of Dems and 60% of Independents in Oregon then the election is a landslide.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #10 on: May 17, 2016, 09:38:31 am »

Well, it's an uphill battle, but it may work out. But if TRUMP wins Oregon, he'll defeat the Hill in a landslide.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #11 on: May 17, 2016, 09:46:51 am »

Was the OP to this thread, "StatesPoll," not someone (or something) that posted tons of garbage 2 or 3 months ago, then all of a sudden stopped ?
Kind of like spam posting ..... huge amounts of data that was copied and posted ?
He/She/It is back.
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Bernietards Don't Understand Polling
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #12 on: May 17, 2016, 09:48:00 am »

If Trump can win Oregon than Hillary can win Missouri. In other words, he can't.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #13 on: May 17, 2016, 09:49:13 am »

If Trump can win Oregon than Hillary can win Missouri. In other words, she can't.

fixed Wink
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Bernietards Don't Understand Polling
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #14 on: May 17, 2016, 09:56:54 am »

If Trump can win Oregon than Hillary can win Missouri. In other words, she can't.

fixed Wink

Yeah, sure. Here in the real world, Hillary actually has a much better chance of carrying Missouri than Trump does Oregon, so in fact I was being too fair to Trump.
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Angrie
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« Reply #15 on: May 17, 2016, 10:08:06 am »

The only reason Oregon was even somewhat competitive in 2000 was because of Nader, and it hasn't been since. Trump is not going to play well in Oregon. The West is his worst region.
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PresidentTRUMP
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« Reply #16 on: May 17, 2016, 10:52:02 am »

He may make it closer but he wont win Oregon.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #17 on: May 17, 2016, 10:54:11 am »

It'd be nice to have some polling in Missouri....I really don't know how it will play out this year.    It's not like Trump is super popular there, and neither was Obama frankly.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #18 on: May 17, 2016, 12:41:27 pm »

He may make it closer but he wont win Oregon.
If he can make Oregon a <10% race, that means he's winning the election.
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bumpercrop
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« Reply #19 on: May 17, 2016, 12:47:00 pm »

How many people with asperger's in this thread?
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Young Texan
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« Reply #20 on: May 17, 2016, 12:49:30 pm »

I believe Trump could make Oregon a swing state and he could capitalize on Reagan Democrats. He needs to invest at least a little bit in the state because it is swing-able with the previously mentioned list.
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« Reply #21 on: May 17, 2016, 12:51:01 pm »

How many people with asperger's in this thread?
Right here, but in my defense, I was making fun of OP.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #22 on: May 17, 2016, 12:59:13 pm »
« Edited: May 17, 2016, 01:09:39 pm by Seriously? »

Oregon is the New Jersey of the Left coast. Not only can you not pump your own gas, but there's also that invariable outlier of a poll that makes you think the Republican candidate has a chance every single cycle.... Then reality sets in.

If Trump takes Oregon, it's a landslide. It's a lean or likely D state in most cycles. I'm not holding my breath.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #23 on: May 17, 2016, 01:08:21 pm »

Please consider for a moment that a lot of time was wasted in writing this garbage.
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BundouYMB
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« Reply #24 on: May 17, 2016, 01:13:51 pm »

Wyoming could be a swing state in 2016.

Yes, that makes zero sense and there's zero evidence to back it up, but I'm going to insist it could be a swing state anyways.

1. Party Affiliation.

http://soswy.state.wy.us/Elections/Docs/VRStats/2016/16MayVR_stats.pdf

Republicans 69%, Democrats 21%, Independents 10%.

If Hillary gets a measly 40% of Republicans and 100% of Democrats and Independents she would get 50% of the vote.

2. Racial Demogrpahics.

Voters Shares(considering Turnouts) in 2016, it would be

White 93% | Native American 3% | Black 2% | Asian 1%

Yes, Wyoming whites have virtually no history of voting for Democrats, and have voted overwhelmingly for Republicans in Presidential elections for decades, but LBJ won Wyoming only 56 years ago and I refuse to acknowledge that any new voters may have been born since then.

If Hillary can win those LBJ Democrats (mostly whites) than, in the poetic words of StatesPoll, "it is a worth to challenge."

3. 27% of people in Wyoming are evangelical. Which is only 2% lower than fellow swing state Oregon. I refuse to listen to any rational explanation for this, such as the state's large, overwhelmingly Republican Mormon population and instead cling to this one out of context factoid as "evidence" for my moronic thesis.

http://www.pewforum.org/religious-landscape-study/religious-tradition/evangelical-protestant/

So by my calculations that means Wyoming could be 239.5% Clinton | -1% Trump,       dead heat.
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