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Author Topic: NM-PPP: Clinton +8%, Johnson in double digits  (Read 2084 times)
JRP1994
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« on: May 17, 2016, 08:58:05 am »

http://nmpoliticalreport.com/44100/clinton-leads-in-nm-in-three-way-race/

Clinton: 41%
Trump: 33%
Johnson: 14%
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ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #1 on: May 17, 2016, 09:09:16 am »

Before the anti-Hillary clowns leap on this, here's a reminder from four years back: http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=156139.0

In July 2012 Obama was only up 42-38 in a 3 way race with Johnson. Hillary will win NM comfortably.
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #2 on: May 17, 2016, 09:23:29 am »

Clinton +8 isn't that strange a result if she's up 2-3 points nationally at the moment.  I hope we get to see the head to head result too when the full cross tabs are released.
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Young Texan
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« Reply #3 on: May 17, 2016, 09:24:46 am »

Before the anti-Hillary clowns leap on this, here's a reminder from four years back: http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=156139.0

In July 2012 Obama was only up 42-38 in a 3 way race with Johnson. Hillary will win NM comfortably.

I honestly wouldn't be so sure of that in my opinion. Trump will be moving towards the left to get his appeal up with Hispanics and I think he will extend an olive branch to them definitely making this state competitive.
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FM Scott🦋
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« Reply #4 on: May 17, 2016, 09:26:20 am »

Before the anti-Hillary clowns leap on this, here's a reminder from four years back: http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=156139.0

In July 2012 Obama was only up 42-38 in a 3 way race with Johnson. Hillary will win NM comfortably.

I honestly wouldn't be so sure of that in my opinion. Trump will be moving towards the left to get his appeal up with Hispanics and I think he will extend an olive branch to them definitely making this state competitive.

no
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #5 on: May 17, 2016, 09:37:33 am »

Before the anti-Hillary clowns leap on this, here's a reminder from four years back: http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=156139.0

In July 2012 Obama was only up 42-38 in a 3 way race with Johnson. Hillary will win NM comfortably.

I honestly wouldn't be so sure of that in my opinion. Trump will be moving towards the left to get his appeal up with Hispanics and I think he will extend an olive branch to them definitely making this state competitive.

I'm sure a couple more tweets of TRUMP eating from a Taco Bowl will make him competitive among Hispanics.
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Angrie
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« Reply #6 on: May 17, 2016, 10:03:04 am »

Is Johnson taking more from Trump or from Clinton?
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mds32
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« Reply #7 on: May 17, 2016, 10:05:57 am »

Johnson taking 14% probably means the same in Utah I would think.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #8 on: May 17, 2016, 10:42:18 am »

Clinton should win NM by about 5 or 6.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #9 on: May 17, 2016, 11:25:10 am »

Anyone who thinks New Mexico will be that close is delusional.
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ag
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« Reply #10 on: May 17, 2016, 11:27:56 am »

Before the anti-Hillary clowns leap on this, here's a reminder from four years back: http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=156139.0

In July 2012 Obama was only up 42-38 in a 3 way race with Johnson. Hillary will win NM comfortably.

I honestly wouldn't be so sure of that in my opinion. Trump will be moving towards the left to get his appeal up with Hispanics and I think he will extend an olive branch to them definitely making this state competitive.

It is not the matter of left/right at this point. In order to appeal to Hispanics, I am afraid, Trump will have to campaign against Donald Trump personally.
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« Reply #11 on: May 17, 2016, 12:59:30 pm »

Anyone who thinks New Mexico will be that close is delusional.
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FM Scott🦋
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« Reply #12 on: May 17, 2016, 01:01:36 pm »

Obama won New Mexico by ten points.  Who in the right mind thinks Trump will outperform Romney?
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« Reply #13 on: May 17, 2016, 01:20:28 pm »

Obama won New Mexico by ten points.  Who in the right mind thinks Trump will outperform Romney?
It's an open election. History shows that Trump will likely outperform Romney. Romney was a terrible candidate.

As to the point of NM, thought, it's probably a lean D this cycle. Trump would win by a healthy margin if he took the state.
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« Reply #14 on: May 17, 2016, 01:28:47 pm »

Obama won New Mexico by ten points.  Who in the right mind thinks Trump will outperform Romney?
It's an open election. History shows that Trump will likely outperform Romney. Romney was a terrible candidate.

As to the point of NM, thought, it's probably a lean D this cycle. Trump would win by a healthy margin if he took the state.

And Trump is a good one?

LOL
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yeah_93
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« Reply #15 on: May 17, 2016, 01:29:11 pm »

Obama won New Mexico by ten points.  Who in the right mind thinks Trump will outperform Romney?
It's an open election. History shows that Trump will likely outperform Romney. Romney was a terrible candidate.

As to the point of NM, thought, it's probably a lean D this cycle. Trump would win by a healthy margin if he took the state.
I don't think history is a good metric for Trump's support.
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FM Scott🦋
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« Reply #16 on: May 17, 2016, 01:30:41 pm »

Atlas really has gone down the Nate Silver route of political analysis, hasn't it.  Sad.
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #17 on: May 17, 2016, 03:15:23 pm »

Johnson was supposed to get a large chunk of the vote in 2012. He got 3.5%.

PPP will continue to be a joke as long as they keep including third parties.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #18 on: May 17, 2016, 03:16:41 pm »

Including third parties really does distort the result.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #19 on: May 17, 2016, 03:26:05 pm »

Where's the actual polling report? I would like to see the numbers without Johnson/Stein included (as that will be closer to reality).
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Ronnie
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« Reply #20 on: May 17, 2016, 03:34:56 pm »

Hillary might approach 60% in this state.  By all accounts, it will be a bloodbath.
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« Reply #21 on: May 17, 2016, 03:34:58 pm »

Or the race is much closer than people think? If we're so quick as to think New Mexico --> lots of Hispanics --> must be a large Trump lose, then our analysis is lazy and flawed. Gary Johnson takes about evenly from R's and D's.

I do think Clinton will win by more, but at the moment, Clinton has not united the party, Trump has (despite all the talk of politicians hating him, Republican voters like him, and that's what matters).
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #22 on: May 17, 2016, 03:45:03 pm »

Or the race is much closer than people think? If we're so quick as to think New Mexico --> lots of Hispanics --> must be a large Trump lose, then our analysis is lazy and flawed. Gary Johnson takes about evenly from R's and D's.

I do think Clinton will win by more, but at the moment, Clinton has not united the party, Trump has (despite all the talk of politicians hating him, Republican voters like him, and that's what matters).

There have been multiple AZ polls showing a close race. If Trump had united the party and/or Hispanics were not heavily against him, he'd be leading there easily.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #23 on: May 17, 2016, 05:11:13 pm »

I think Hillary will win by 8 or 9, but I guess that's wishful thinking.
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« Reply #24 on: May 17, 2016, 05:27:54 pm »

New Mexico is not a swing state this year; Arizona is. In a good year for a Republican nominee, New Mexico is a swing state and Arizona isn't.
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