Trump +13 in Utah Dan Jones & Associates (May 2-10)

[Zioneer]

The relative closeness of Utah is not so much important for Utah as it is for neighboring Nevada and Arizona.

Seriously?

Utah = Mormons. Trump did terribly with Mormons in the primaries. Comparing UT to any other state other than perhaps Idaho doesn't make sense.  Hint: Hillary! isn't winning Idaho, just like Trump isn't winning the People's Socialist Republic of Vermont.

Trump also won by healthy margins in Nevada and Arizona in the Republican primary. He should play well in both states as there won't be as much erosion by the #NeverTrump losers as you think.

There are lots of Mormons in NV/AZ...

Not nearly as much as in Utah. Nevada is about 4% Mormon, and Arizona 5%. Utah is about half Mormon, more or less. Wyoming is about 11%.

Yeah, it's a lot harder for Mormons to lie about their numbers in the USA compared to places such as Tonga

Actually, you've got it reversed; non-American countries, especially those with established religions, are generally more strict on what constitutes an "active" Mormon. American demographers aren't nearly as strict, and generally go by the numbers the LDS Church says it has.

Outside of America, they're generally stricter on the finances of a religion as well.

[beaver2.0]

The Constitution Party could have done well if they had chosen someone like Labrador to try to corner the Mormon vote.  They might get a respectable performance in Utah, and, with Virgil Goode as the running mate, get the sort of votes he got in Virginia.

[Mr. Smith]

Not surprised in he slightest. It's like I said, Democrats are instinctively hated and Hillary represents that absolute worst faction. (There's a reason Perot did better than Bill there in '92)

The only way Utah'd flip would be if the Democrat facing trump were Obama,...Obama 2008 specifically.

Bernie in his own way is closer to that sort of idealism than Hillary, hence why he is doing better in this poll and why he won the caucus.

[IceSpear]

The relative closeness of Utah is not so much important for Utah as it is for neighboring Nevada and Arizona.

Seriously?

Utah = Mormons. Trump did terribly with Mormons in the primaries. Comparing UT to any other state other than perhaps Idaho doesn't make sense.  Hint: Hillary! isn't winning Idaho, just like Trump isn't winning the People's Socialist Republic of Vermont.

Trump also won by healthy margins in Nevada and Arizona in the Republican primary. He should play well in both states as there won't be as much erosion by the #NeverTrump losers as you think.

There are lots of Mormons in NV/AZ...

Not nearly as much as in Utah. Nevada is about 4% Mormon, and Arizona 5%. Utah is about half Mormon, more or less. Wyoming is about 11%.

But their turnout rate is much higher than the general population, right?

[Zioneer]

The relative closeness of Utah is not so much important for Utah as it is for neighboring Nevada and Arizona.

Seriously?

Utah = Mormons. Trump did terribly with Mormons in the primaries. Comparing UT to any other state other than perhaps Idaho doesn't make sense.  Hint: Hillary! isn't winning Idaho, just like Trump isn't winning the People's Socialist Republic of Vermont.

Trump also won by healthy margins in Nevada and Arizona in the Republican primary. He should play well in both states as there won't be as much erosion by the #NeverTrump losers as you think.

There are lots of Mormons in NV/AZ...

Not nearly as much as in Utah. Nevada is about 4% Mormon, and Arizona 5%. Utah is about half Mormon, more or less. Wyoming is about 11%.

But their turnout rate is much higher than the general population, right?

Well, Utah itself has notoriously bad voter turnout, but that may be because barely any of the non-Mormon population bothers to vote, while the Mormons do tend to vote. Overall, since they tend to be civic-minded, very religious, middle to upper-middle class white people, Mormons seem like they'd have a higher turnout; I don't know for sure, I don't know the particular statistics.

[Heisenberg]

For Utah, a Republican in the lead with 43% is still awful.

PPP is releasing a poll of Arizona this week. If I am a Democrat I would still rather win Arizona.  

PPP is also releasing a poll of New Mexico tomorrow.

Good old days of 2004 are no more, I suppose. Anyway, do you have a schedule of the next PPP polls coming? I'd like to see MT (Presidential, Governor, US House) and NV (Presidential, Senatorial, NV-03 and NV-04).
Edit: Found the NM poll, results are what I expected.