AZ-PPP: Trump and Clinton Close in AZ

[Ebsy]

Trump: 40
Clinton: 38
Johnson: 6
Stein: 2

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_AZ_51716.pdf

[Eraserhead]

Fool's Gold for Clinton.

[Ronnie]

Interesting.  Trump is doing better than I thought he would do, particularly since Republicans in the poll haven't fully rallied around him quite yet.

[Sorenroy]

Unlike the other poll (I forget which one), this one shows that a Democrat/Donald Trump/Jill Stein/Gary Johnson race has the same third party support no matter if the Democrat is Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders (although this is more of a shift, as you can see looking at cross-tabs, rather then solid support for third parties). Also, this changes to a +4 Trump (45-41) race if it was only Clinton and Trump. Also if Jan Brewer was picked as Trump's running mate, the head to head would be 43-43 down from 45-41.

Sex:
Hillary Clinton beats Donald Trump 43-35 (8 points) among women (53% of electorate).
Donald Trump beats Hillary Clinton 47-32 (15 points) among men (47% of electorate).

Race:
Donald Trump beats Hillary Clinton 49-29 (20 points) among White voters (71% of electorate).
Hillary Clinton beats Donald Trump 62-17 (45 points) among Hispanic voters (19% of electorate).
Hillary Clinton beats Donald Trump 50-23 (27 points) among "Other" voters (9% of electorate).

Age:
Hillary Clinton beats Donald Trump 39-32 (7 points) among people age 18-45 (38% of electorate).
Donald Trump beats Hillary Clinton 43-38 (5 points) among people age 46-65 (42% of electorate).
Donald Trump beats Hillary Clinton 51-35 (16 points) among people age 66+ (20% of electorate).

[IceSpear]

This and the NM poll are quite inconsistent.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

OK, I'm officially worried about the Electoral College for Clinton now!

Why would Clinton being down 2 points 174 days before the general election in a state Obama lost by 9 points make you nervous about her winning the Electoral College?

He's being sacrastic lol.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Ebsy told us in the thread about the NM poll that the numbers without Johnson and Stein are closer to reality. In this poll, Trump leads Clinton by 4 (45/41) when you narrow the field to just those two candidates. Sanders leads Trump 45/44.

More proof his numbers are inflated. Sanders is an atrocious candidate for AZ.

[Ebsy]

Ebsy told us in the thread about the NM poll that the numbers without Johnson and Stein are closer to reality. In this poll, Trump leads Clinton by 4 (45/41) when you narrow the field to just those two candidates. Sanders leads Trump 45/44.

Yes, I read the Arizona polling report, which is why I wanted to see the New Mexico one. I agree that Trump is probably up by closer to 4. Still an awful result for the GOP.

[Seriously?]

Fool's Gold for Clinton.

[Seriously?]

This and the NM poll are quite inconsistent.

Why? NM usually is in the Lean Democrat column. AZ in the Lean/Likely Republican. I am not shocked with either outcome at this point.

[Crumpets]

AZ has had a lot of new registrations. Would those voters be included in this poll?

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Clinton isn't even outperforming Sanders in AZ. Sad.

[pbrower2a]

AZ has had a lot of new registrations. Would those voters be included in this poll?

It's the new registrations in September and October that can make a travesty of conventional wisdom.

Arizona could have a nasty surprise awaiting Donald Trump. There has never been much enmity between the masses of Anglo and Hispanic voters. Older white Anglo voters often have some Mexican-American in-law, and this person could influence some white Anglo votes. Assimilation into the American way of life does not require that one abandon interest in the well-being of people of one's origins.

[Fargobison]

Donald is really pumped up to be up by 2 points in AZ....

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/732988705531650048

[IceSpear]

Donald is really pumped up to be up by 2 points in AZ....

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/732988705531650048

LOL

I wonder if he'd celebrate being up a point in Alabama.

[Ljube]

Fool's Gold for Clinton.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Some things to note:
-outside of Latino Decisions, pollsters are notoriously bad at finding representative samples of Latino voters
-It's very unlikely that the Hispanic electorate will stay somewhat stable. It's likely going to increase by a great deal and these added voters will be more anti-Trump than those who are in the current pool

Arizona is fool's gold if we assume a natural demographic trend wherein the electorate only becomes somewhat more Hispanic. It's not if we expect, as we should, that there will be a very intensive voter registration effort there.

[Mr. Morden]

In the 2-way matchup, results by party:

Dems
Clinton 84%
Trump 8%

GOP
Trump 77%
Clinton 7%

Indies
Trump 46%
Clinton 34%

As with some of the other polls we’re getting, for all the talk about how the Republicans are rallying around Trump, while the divisive Democratic primary drags on, Clinton does better with her own party than Trump does with his.  But Trump does better with Indies, which still keeps him competitive.