Which state was the most surprising?

[minionofmidas]

I did pretty well actually.

The only state I just plain got wrong was Minnesota - I figured it was pretty darn close, it wasn't

Yeah, I never understood how you came to such an obviously harebrained conclusion.

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From day one? Probably. It was becoming clear to me some months in, though. Much like Minnesota, really. In more ways than one - both states had freak result in 2000. Once the 2004 campaign was really shaping up, it should have been clear they'd be moving back towards normal.

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I got Iowa, New Mexico and Ohio wrong in that matter, but that's because I rigged it to predict a Dem win. I might have just as well given all three plus Wisconsin to the Reps, those were the four states where either result would have been utterly unsurprising to me.

Most surprising to me was the size of Bush's victory in certain Southern states, notably Alabama, West Virginia and Oklahoma, and the size of the internal dynamics in California.